RE: Bid for Solg as early as June18 May 2022 15:04
Here you go Pad..............
The smart money is on a joint bid for London-listed Solgold by BHP and Newcrest Mining, as early as June.
Both miners have acquired minority stakes in SolGold which controls the enormous Cascabel copper-gold concession in mining-friendly Ecuador.
Sources say BHP CEO Mike Henry has been persuaded to go with Newcrest because of the latter's expertise in block caving.
An alliance would assuage investors' fears of ‘execution risk.' Block caving issues have hampered progress at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia where Rio Tinto is undertaking a tricky and expensive expansion programme.
Problems at Oyu Tolgoi haven't been lost on Henry who is said to favour an ownership model similar to Escondida, the Chilean copper operation jointly controlled by BHP and Rio.
Said one analyst: "It was initially going to be one giant block cave, and that was proved to be too ambitious. The trouble with block caves is that unless you have a nice vertical ore body, a nice regular shape, you're going to have huge amounts of dilution, as it wanders up and down, left and right etc."
It's rumoured Henry and Newcrest boss Sandeep Biswas have recently held talks to cut a takeover deal. The two companies are expected to bid following the release in May of the long-delayed Alpala preliminary feasibility study.
The Alpala deposit is the main target at the Cascabel concession, located on the northern section of the heavily endowed Andean Copper Belt.
SolGold is one of the largest holders of mining concessions in Ecuador, but Cascabel is the most advanced. The Cascabel-Alpala property contains a resource of 2.6 billion tonnes at 0.53% copper equivalent. Annual metal production in the first 25 years was estimated in the 2019 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) at 207,000 tonnes of copper; 438,000oz of gold and 1.4Moz of silver in concentrate. The estimated mine life is 50 years.
The PEA assumed lower copper and gold prices than we have today, but at the time, analysts were concerned by a capex number of close to $3bn.
A scaled down PFS is expected from new SolGold CEO Darryl Cuzzubbo, a former BHP executive, appointed at the end of 2021.
Some analysts expect the 2019 forecast of Alpala's net present value (between $4.1 billion to $4.5bn) to be cut by up to 30% - keeping initial capex within tight limits.“