Member Info for dallo

Morgan Stanley has today downgraded ITV to Neutral with a price target of 210p
Just out citing advertising headwinds but awaiting developments on Strategic Refresh and
perhaps acquisitions in the studios business

Not moving up
Selling pressure with the MMs organising book to offload chunky
amounts
Hopefully seller gone for now

I agree as the delay in recruiting patients for the extension study
( 44 signed up at end May 2018) will mean no final news until early 2019
However, I hoped an update on the extension study would be forthcoming imminently.
We await developments with patience.

Small trader
Motif Bio has been granted a New Drug Application ( NDA ) for Iclaprim , a Gram-positive
antibiotic for the treatment of serious skin infections in hospital ( mainly) patients.
It has also received a Qualified Infectious Disease Product ( QID) designation with an FDA
decision to be confirmed by the 13 February 2019
The interesting thing with Motif Bio and Iclaprim is that they conducted TWO Phase 111 trials
on the drug before submitting the application to the FDA which if approved could be a mega product
with a 10 year exclusivity patent.
So it is quite possible that Immupharma may conduct a second Phase 111 trial with a partner
before submitting the FDA application or maybe the follow-on 6 month trial may be deemed sufficient
to proceed to FDA.
All conjecture on my part dyor

We should remember that all patients on the Phase 111 trial including
the placebo patients continued to receive their normal medical and clinical
treatments including steroids and antibiotics and possibly Benyista ( NOT CONFIRMED)
which combined with the relatively low number of trialists made it harder to achieve
statistical end-points. Those receiving Lupuzor suffered no side effects confirming
the highest efficacy standards for Lupuzor ( a key FDA matrix ).
The request by certain trialists and their doctors to continue using Lupuzor ( unblinded)
is significant and rather unusual in Phase 111 trials.
Given the superb research facilities, drug pipeline and Dr Muller and her team behind Immupharma, I
would not be too despondent about the future prospects for the company albeit
tell that to the shocked shareholders including those who participated in the £ 10 m placing
at £1.44 before the trial results.
All not lost here particularly given the current market cap of £28m of which ( for now) includes
£10m in cash

Salvarx has just announced it is to sell it's operating businesses for $ 75m and
shares are up c 80%.
Salvarx is involved in developing immune therapy oncology drugs none of which have
reached clinical trial stages as yet.
This may serve as a benchmark for a possible buyout price for Immupharma who
have a range of interesting pre-clinical peptide derived therapies for cancer, diabetes and
other immune-related diseases not to mention Lupuzor .
Interesting times ahead

The next milestone will the results of the 6 month extension trial for all
patients involved in the main Lupuzor Phase 111 trial ( or at least those
who decided to continue) which should now be imminent.
The 6 month extension trial should now be complete and results under the open-label
study may now be under analysis
Any discussions with potential partners/ acquirers may be awaiting these findings as
will further interreaction with the regulators.
I firmly believe we will get an update from the company ( for good or ill) very soon imho

Massive buy at 16.29 pm ---3 shares at 20p at total cost of 60p
Wow !

I have left this board because of Last Call so delighted he appears to have gone
It took a long time to get rid of this maniac so I will resume my perusal of what used to be
a very interesting discussion board

New buy recommendation and revised estimates for ITV just out from Liberum.
New target price 275p
Keep the faith--ITV is set to move higher after update on the 23rd July imho

I have moved from Interactive Investor to lse.co.uk
Interactive is now a disaster and I love the real-time access on lse
Suits me just fine
Watch my Portfolio and Watchlist and click if I need RNS or Chat
Top class
I think thousands have moved from II site to LSE which caused the problem on Friday

Now at 5 year low and down 12% since dividend announced a month ago The 9p dividend is scant consolation in the light of this dreadful performance Patience required yet again

While Ms Moneypenny talks about Crispin Odey taking a � 47 m short trade bet on ITV we should , for balance , mention that Capital Research and Management , the Los Angeles based private investment group, has a � 750 m long position in ITV

Only 2 disclosed positions above .5% Odey Asset management .69% disclosed on 7 June 208 Old Mutual Global Investor .73% disclosed on 24 May 2018 These are not significant short positions compared to other FTSE 100 companies and most likely represent hedging strategies

Sadly this board has descended into a slanging competition I shall return once the posts become more civilised and respectful with real analysis

Netflix has a " P/E Ratio" based on the share price to EBITDA of 210 times while ITV are on a REAL P/E Ratio of 10 times making real profits not" makey uppy" EBITDA numbers and by the way ITV pay real dividends I will be transversing the Universe as a bundle of atoms before Netflix pays a dividend

Just back from 2 weeks in the US and talking to my son and his friends, I found that young 20-30 year olds are moving away from Netflx in droves and watching HBO , Amazon Prime and increasingly Hulu. What is interesting about Hulu is it's catalogue of TV shows and sports . The Hulu model is primarily advertisement based but viewers do not seem to mind that as they are watching popular shows/sports that are relatively short and bite-sized Netflix is 95% garbage and 5% watchable with $ 20b in debt ITV focus on online, content and popular TV shows and sports and if packaged effectively may not be old technology after all. That allied to it's very low debt and terrific cash generation can be the foundation for growth Give me a company that is profitable, cash rich and low gearing with a good chance of a strategic advance over one that can evaporate overnight The whole sector is set for massive consolidation and ITV look a very tasty proposition imho

Q1 results much better than expected Early reaction must be very positive for opening share price particularly as Dame Mc Call is just getting going Reassuring numbers

There will be no guidance given tomorrow as far as I am aware The outlook I have quoted is from my sources based on their own analysis The figures if achieved are not unsatisfactory in my view given the current advertising and media market ITV IS CURRENTLY THE LOWEST RATED STOCK IN THE 30 STOCK EUROPEAN MEDIA INDEX The forecast 2018 P/E ratio for ITV is 10 dropping to 9 in 2019 compared to average of 14/15 over past decade The forecast Free Cash Flow Yield ( FCF) for 2018 is 7.5% rising to 9.2% in 2019 before we even see the Strategic Refresh which close to best in breed. These are attractive multiples regardless of the market risks

Tomorrow report is a revenues update only. There is no conference call There is no presentation by Carolyn Mc Call who plans to instead talk to the market at the interims with the strategy presentation in the Autumn A reliable source ( cannot reveal ) is suggesting the following numbers; Q1 Revenues up 1.6% to � 743 m ( 2017 Q1 � 731m) versus consensus of � 749m Q1 NAR Revenues up 1% at � 397m in line with guidance ( 2017 Q1 � 393m) Q1 Non NAR Revenues up 2.4% to � 468 m ( 2017 � 457m) Q1 Internal supply up 2.5% to � 122m ( 2017 � 119m) Outlook for Q2 is more subdued than envisaged with tepid interest from media buyers so far in the World Cup . Outlook for 2018 is a reduction in EPS growth of c 3% versus previous forecasts Overall the figures will be reasonably satisfactory given the market conditions and emphasise the importance of Mc Call's Strategy review currently underway There is a lot bubbling under the surface and as a large holder I am staying in for the ride despite a possible slightly negative market reaction to tomorrows figures GLA