Member Info for dai2belts

Remember the RNS came 10 minutes before trading, catching some people out..
Pre-market trading is 05:05-07:50, then trading starts 8am..
So announced outside of trading hours, and not giving pre-market traders an advantage
https://www.tradinghours.com/markets/lse

Its taken me ages to work it out, they switch 1mmcf/d & 350,000mcf/y, 730,000mcf & 700,000mcf talk about 16% royalties but use ~8%, use $242mm and $249mm, quote $20 opex and use $15 + $1 capex maintenance, plus have never attempted anything similar before...

And then you know in recent years the price of helium has been out doing dollar inflation so why discount it.. so its all orchids if you ask me :)

Now apparently your use IRR to get the NPV to 0, part of comparing projects....H&P have IRR... so entertainment until spud..

Got notes from BigPlan, his efforts are starting to pay off, :)

Need an accountant to explain it :(
Ummm, my attempt, could be misleading...
Its the total value of say Tai, assuming its not refillable ;) What its worth in todays money..from cash flow over a 10 year period..
If you look at line 3, 3 years from now that valuation $56mm of gas ($161/mcf) will be worth $37.8mm($108/mcf) today.
So the asset value is kind of what its worth today taking into account things like inflation over the 10 year period He1 are looking for it and extracting it, the full amount of gas over the life of the resource.
Then the $51/mcf I suppose is todays value taking into account inflation over that 10 year period..
So I guess if we were just finishing the 1st year of production when the report valuation was completed we would be getting $161/mcf and roughly $56mm in the bank today....and the plant is paid for.. I think..
But overall its worth $254mm FCF

The concept does not quite jell for me, but the numbers seem to work..waiting for an accountant to check it out..

Cash Flow Stream Detail
Period, -Cash Flow, -Present Value
1............ 0.00........... 0.00 ...Exploration year
2............ 0.00........... 0.00 ...Panning Development
3 ...........56.00 .........37.80 ..1st year 350,000mcf (asset value $56mm FCF, $161/mcf FCF)
4 ...........56.00......... 33.16 ..2nd year 350,000mcf
5..........112.00........ 58.17 ..3rd Year 700,000mcf (Asset value $112mm FCF)
6..........112.00........ 51.03
7......... 112.00 ........44.76
8 .........112.00 ........39.26
9 .........112.00 ........34.44
10........112.00 ........30.21.. 8th year approaching 5bcf net, of 6 BCF prospect

P Value Total: ..........328.82mm
Plant .......................($50) (See Page 27)
Contingency 20% ..($14) (See Page 27)
Power .....................($10) (See Page 27)
Total less Invest......$254.82mm

Production 5Bcf(5000,000mcf) 254.82/5=$50.964mcf

@Buzz, Noob.. looks like the $51/mcf and average Asset value £254mm in the initial H&P note is with 6bcf plant built...
If I have correctly worked out the valuation method..
Here are my workings, assumptions...hopefully correct..

Interest Rate 14%(NPV14)
Starting period 2021, with production 2023, ending 2031
Cash flow: Asset value of $56m FCF page 30

Cash Flow Stream Detail
Period Cash Flow Present Value
1 0.00 0.00 Exploration year
2 0.00 0.00 Panning Development
3 56.00 37.80 1st year 350,000mcf (asset value $56mm FCF, $161/mcf FCF)
4 56.00 33.16 2nd year 350,000mcf
5 112.00 58.17 3rd Year 700,000mcf (Asset value $112mm FCF)
6 112.00 51.03
7 112.00 44.76
8 112.00 39.26
9 112.00 34.44
10 112.00 30.21 8th year approaching 5bcf net, of 6 BCF prospect

P Value Total: 328.82mm
Plant ($50) (See Page 27)
Contingency 20% ($14) (See Page 27)
Power ($10) (See Page 27)
Total less Investment $254.82mm
(See page 22, Unrisked average value $254mm for each prospect)

Production 5Bcf(5000,000mcf)
254.82/5=$50.964mcf

https://mcusercontent.com/110d0aa5f5d9bf9478796664e/files/58194820-d910-4c75-b085-a151b97344ee/Helium_One_Initiation_note_Final_14_Dec_2020_RB2.pdf?utm_source=H%26P+Master+Contact+List+%28Sements+and+Tags%29&utm_campaign=78f95cbff0-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_05_20_02_05_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_dd4f91613c-78f95cbff0-37177196

https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/financial/present-value-cash-flows-calculator.php

I can create a spike manually buying :(

I use lloyds, that uses halifax with serves others too..
My problem is access, like the time when the vaccines came out and the ftse 100 jump +5%, was a problem for other brokers too that day though.. But they blamed the data/quote supplier, must think people are stupid..
They dont look after us as they should, with their trading systems not up to the job

I use the candles when price watching, but ignore all the bull/bear patterns they are often wrong..
But I switch between standard candles and Ashi,
Ashi smooths things out showing pattern, but misses quick change..
Today they produced two similar charts but Ashi makes the trend clearer

Who is your broker ?

@ Wyn, had the candles up all day, I noticed MM kept the bid at 10.5 all day, same ask until after lunch( I went out) then tightened the spread in the afternoon probably to encourage buying so they are not holding so much over the weekend while Ukraine plays out..
Whats your take, try Heikin Ashi candles with 15min intervals...

@Dixy, did you check manually, I have never had a set order execute for He1, even when the price had been lower..
Spread was 10.50/10.60 for a while and trades are showing at 10.55..

I wonder if Buzz is trolling or just asking before he buys,, its helping
Should have all the uncertainties covered soon...
But this is never a certain thing,
Might have cracked how they got $51/mcf in the initial doc..

I can't, struggling just to comprehend, they switch units, differ amounts, round up, round down, leave stuff out,
Since then they adjusted and upped the valuations, its all black magic to me..

@Wyn, whats your charts saying
Just did some dummy buys, price goes up the more you buy, works out cheaper to buy in batches if of 100k, if your buying a lot, got a quote for 300k, did not try higher....

Here is were I got those figures for 350,000 mcf, 2023E
Page 29, last paragraph appears to be the introduction to the 4 graphs of page 30..
Page 28, chart shows 2023 production
looks like there could errors on the page though, royalties are 16%, but for some reason seem half that in the charts..

https://mcusercontent.com/110d0aa5f5d9bf9478796664e/files/58194820-d910-4c75-b085-a151b97344ee/Helium_One_Initiation_note_Final_14_Dec_2020_RB2.pdf?utm_source=H%26P+Master+Contact+List+%28Sements+and+Tags%29&utm_campaign=78f95cbff0-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_05_20_02_05_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_dd4f91613c-78f95cbff0-37177196

MM must be reading the BB, tight spread at dixy's price 10.50/10.60, was it for long?

@ Buzz, no good at BB text, sorry as in my apologies for not included enough info to make sense..

@Buzz, sorry , in the table there is the value based on the gas produced over the same period the $58 was calculated Tai being $290mm, which suggests they estimate extracting 5Bcf.

think values are calculated over 10 years including exploration, planning,building, so producing 350,000mcf 3rd year(1st production)and then upping to 700,000mcf in the 3rd year of production...

@buzz,
There is also the value of the assets which are 5-6x the price of the plant, plant costs may be included, but I am really unsure about that..
Its beyond me..
But first year FCF is given as $161/mcf or $56mm(asset), following year doubling to 700,000mcf..all at $250/mcf

Must be about $200 FCF at $350-400/mcf, $70mm
Must be an accountant on the BB