RE: MATD25 Oct 2024 17:31
In theory if everything was going to plan, and updates show that, should be moving up..
Gobi, being what I think is a duster has knocked a lot of potential value off the company. If H1 flows low even more value is lost..
back over the year when trading at 7p, there was lots of upside, Velociraptor, Gobi, and maybe the old expectation of 500bpd from each Heron well. But now no value from Vel, doubt over Gobi, and updated expectation of 300bopd from each Heron well.... while they averaged 200bopd naturally..
Heron 1, they reported oil during stimulation fluid recovery..
later they announced starting production in few days..
On production update they announce they are cleaning up the well, so they may still be recovering stimulation fluids ?, then its flow testing, while expectations were probably production, and PC contract.
If flow testing shows a low rate, lower than expected then they may need to stimulate and clean up some more, maybe stimulation has contaminated the bore....Or just accept that rate, hopefully its 300bopd or above
I don't have enough experience to know any different, and the BB doesn't seem to have many experts posting, updates are vague
If they don't achieve the rates modelled in the NAV, then those values will be too high.. Modelling is hoping to achieve 5000bopd,.. then enhanced flow rates what ever they are, are expected to double the recoverable oil from about 30mmbls to 60mmbls...that will significantly increase sp
I did some work on the NAV per share, just took all the previous NAV/per oil price updates, and adjusted to dilution, and then compared to nearest oil price... then crudely split the price between 5 wells.. That could explain the current price
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