Member Info for daft63

Well whilst my post was not aimed at any one person but the general standard, I would of thought it was pretty clear! But let me clarify a point, the target is 8-10mmscf/d by the end of 2018, and the pipeline capacity is 24mmcf/d, or 40mmcf/d under compression. It matters not what these wells flowtest at, but rather reserve size, those targets are 18.4bcf, 45bcf and 73bcf .

Do some people think before posting, do some do any research at all, are too many interested in tiny sp movements based on poxy volumes.

Although we play down the size and scale of our Morocco finds, whilst recognising the great rewards on offer, know this little tidbit of info. By year end we hope to have signed a 5 year contract to supply 8-10mmcf, that is the same as the worlds largest lng tanker (9.4mmcf) docking in Kenitra every day for 5 years!

I appreciate your opinion, as it acts as a balance and offers a viewpoint from another angle, no one here is right or wrong and whilst its unusual for me to be so liberal, we are all trying to do the same thing! Positions here are as varied as our personalities, please know yours is valued, as much as anyone elses. Atb

As mockery seems to be todays theme, can we expect edison to downgrade sdx now. Its just another example of how their approach to Sdx shows no foresight, no awareness of upcoming potentials, behind the curve thinking. Its no good evaluating after the news release or the analysts trip, it would be poor investment practice and displays a lack of assessment skills and ability. Zero Risk Analysis is for Insurance brokers not Investment Brokers.

Thought Id do this again to make it simpler to understand. N.W.Gemsa Daily Production Rate 4400bopd gross. Sdx 50% 2200bopd x365 x $19.5 = $15.65m pa. Meseda DPR 3800 Sdx 50% 1900bopd x365 x$24.4 =$16.9m pa. Morocco -here Im using a set rate of $9.5/mcf after opex and varying the dpr to allow for increasing production rates. Dpr 5.2mmcfd (present) Sdx 75% = 3900mcf x365 x$9.5=$13.5m pa. Dpr 8mmcfd (est# 1 end of 18)Sdx 75% =6000mcf x365 x $9.5 = $20.8m pa. Dpr 10mmcfd(est#2 end of 18) Sdx 75% =7500mcf x365 x$9.5 = $26m pa. Dpr 24mmcfd ( pipe full ) Sdx 75% = 18000mcf x365 x $9.5 = $62.4m pa. Dpr 40mmcfd (pipe compressed) Sdx 75% = 30000mcf x 365 $9.5 = $104m pa. South Disouq DPR 50mmcfd DPR100mmcfd Gas rate $2.5/ mcf $6.7m pa $16.7m pa $3 /mcf $8.7m pa $20.7m pa $3.5/mcf $10.7m pa $24.4m pa $4 / mcf $12.7m pa $28.8m pa $4.5 /mcf $14.7m pa $32.8m pa This gives profit, allowing 60% for state cut and taxes, and removing opex at $3.3m pa. All figures are last known availables for existing fields and all variables for future development as known to date.

Whilst everyone has differing tactics on how to make money, lets not believe that SDX wont move up from here, by how much and when are up for debate, but we know key stages could alter the sp by multiples over the next 18-24 months. 1. The results from the rest of planned drills. 2. 3D analysis in Morocco. 3. 3D shoot and analysis at SD. 4. 2nd drill campaign in Morocco. Post SD drill analysis could prove to be important and may well come in at the same time as the Morocco 3D, Potentials in either or both could cause major sp changes to occur, SD could show extensions into unknown areas, Morocco may reveal targets for larger finds deep down. What must be realised here is that the price offered right now is considered a bargain for what we already have, even by edisons standards, and the poor volume suggests we are not looking at big sellers/buyers, but bots, fiddlers and gamblers! Large volumes will change this fast. Lets see what provokes them. Atb

Posted that link previously, it seems obvious that things in Egypt are changing for the better, they have connected 8.5m homes to the gas network and raised the price paid for domestic users. We will know the price we will get soon enough, but I dont think it will be less than $4/mcf.

http://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/11/15/enis-giant-gas-field-prompts-egypt-to-end-imports-in-2018

It has been interesting to note the views on the LTIP rns, let me give mine. Last years issue on Aug 1st was justified purely on the value added since IPO plus the Circle aquisition,this years is justified purely by the drilling success SDX has achieved. It is worth noting that we have had a team swapout, losing Cameron Snow -Subsurface expert -to First Alpha, and our Egypt Country Manager, who I suspect retired. That meant that just 2 people received the incentive kickback, which is essential if you are to recruit and maintain the top of the crop. Other Aim companies employ similar reward schemes to retain useless Ceos and their cronies, based on poor results and neverending dreamchasing! That is not the case here, these are well deserved, as to the timing, well it was the right moment.

Assuming a sales price of $4.5/tcf, and a 60% allowance to cover state cut and taxes, each bcf found in SD is worth about $900,000 after opex, whilst in Morocco each bcf brings $7m to SDX. It is the scale of the finds that have the potential, if indeed the area has potential to exceed 2.5tcf, which will take time and money to prove up, but would be worth $2.25b in production. The higher the production rate the higher the sales price, Zohrs sales rate is $4 -5.8/ tcf as production ramps up. The next 3D shot on SD is to be south of our present operational area, to try to prove the geology extends inland, this will be crucial to proving up the theory, along with further post drill analysis from these drills. It will take time and money in Egypt to get to big reserves, but expect faster movement in Morocco, where 3D starts next quarter, possibly targeting deeper geology running inland from offshore, as PW has suggested. Getting those customers their gas will fund further SD development, along with further Morocco exploration. Its going to be a juggling game, but by year end, with success in SD giving 100mmcfd, then SDX income should bring in approx $80-90m pa. Filling the pipeline in Morocco by year end 2019 would increase income to $110-120m pa. Even with intense Capex we should be capable of self funding our reach into the SD licence area, all the time increasing our income, as we bring more production units online.

You tube video. Already talking about the next drilling programme in Morocco. The customers are still building sites, the rush is on to get that pipe filled, and hopefully compressed.

You have forgotten 25% to onhym.

The next quarter sees the next shot of 3D in Morocco, give it 3 months for analysis and by Q4 we should have our next drilling targets identified. Expect a drilling programme this time next year to target these, and dont be surprised if they go deeper! Moroccos returns offer big bucks fast and with demand exceeding supply, it concentrates the focus. It all shows what a great deal PW got with the Circle buyout.

Until we get the reserves estimate we are in the dark, flowtest rates are good but these are still small finds with limited lifespans. As long as we can fulfil the next sales contracts for 8-10mmcfd for 5yrs, then its all out for project 24. At $60m pa we move up the ladder, if we can find enough to compress the line, which will require ~75bcf, then make that $100+m pa. But each 1bcf we find is a $7m boost, and if we can fulfil PWs forecast of 10mmcfd then Morocco gives us $25m pa to start with, which when added to our producers in Egypt makes Sdx seriously undervalued without even looking at SD. FY results may give an estimate of Moroccos reserves, be looking for 18bcf+ to get the 10mmcfd, any more than that will help towards project 24, which needs 45bcf.

The question I have for all those who are complaining about todays rns,-If the terms of the LTIP seem so shocking to you, then why didnt you complain last year on Aug1st, this is as bog standard as it comes, nothing has changed, but it seems to have shocked some people. I dont understand the issue here, you have known these terms for at least 7 months.