Member Info for D220

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/02/05/bp-doubles-profits-us-shale-boost/
"BP is working hard to invest in new oil and production to replace the decline from its existing reserves after almost a decade of frugal spending in the wake of the Deep Water Horizon disaster."

Hmmmn, now how could they do that???

dick I agree entirely about your point regarding reserves and it is not something that is readily quantifiable - by me at least! I did spot my basic error in my sums in that the Rhum figures I used should have been halved again:
Assume (guess) half the deal (£500m) for 20% of 495mmscfd so say £500m for 100mmscfd.
Serica currently has 50% of 50% of Rhum (ONLY) ie 46.25mmscfd. Or approx £230m
Now that sounds "somewhat" more realistic.
Anyway, I think we are ALL agreed that this is significantly undervalued! :-)

I am really struggling to understand why the SP is not responding to the rising Nickel price. It will make financing easier so surely that should be reflected? Irrational market?

dick - I wouldnt get hung up on the % of UK gas figures. Look at the volumess I mentioned (just for Rhum, without R3!) and look at Laggan. The impression from the article is that the deal is mainly for Laggan with other bits thrown in. Even if L-T is only half of the deal at £500m , that makes Sericas current share of Rhum alone worth well over £400m!! That is some crazy undervaluation........

dick, some quick sums: Rhum currently produces 185mmscfd as per the latest preso. Laggan-tormore produces (or will produce at peak) 14mcm/d which equates to 495mmscfd (I think!)
So, if the £1b deal is for 20% of L-T (I know it includes some other bits too which might confuse things) that would be £1b for 20% of 495mmscfd so say £1b for 100mmscfd. That can't be right surely as Serica's current 50% of Rhum is 92.5mmscfd! Or £900m?????
So to read across, we would need to know how much of the £1b is JUST for L-T...

Plenty of activity, now Total at it:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/02/02/total-close-1bn-sale-north-sea-stake/

By walking away from Conoco, Ineos have forfitted $300!!!

Interesting that Ineos has pulled out of talks with Conoco and is now looking at Chevron assets. Different scale to what we are looking at I guess, so not in competition.
Of course, they COULD snaffle us without breaking sweat....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/01/31/ineos-talks-north-sea-expansion-collapse/

I would not be surprsied if we get a Monday 7am RNS with details of the deal. A week's extension is obviously to cover themselves. Signing today????

So the Dees have continued to add - now over 8%! They must see the potential here. At least this week should have shaken out the weaker holders. 2p a base to build on from here?

sasa - I agree that £2+ would be a bargain for an acquirer. But that is exactly my point. An interested party would be much better off striking now rather than waiting until Row, R3 etc etc. We are undervalued and that WILL be of interest to a predator. No one is going to £5 any time soon though. Just look at Ophir! AIMO

I am inclined to agree with NKOTB as the SP really doesn't reflect the reality of what we have here now. I would only be interested in a takeover if they are prepared to pay something North of £2 per share.
Will today be the day for 140p???

Slubby - you could take a leaf out of the PM's book and cross your red lines...? You know it makes sense! :-)

This just doesnt have the feel of being on the cusp of a major positiove announcement in the next couple of days. I suspect they will notify that talks are progressing well but that a further announcement will be made in due course......JIMO etc

The pull back due to a lack of news this morning is only to be expected. I had a look at opening an SB with IG but they will only close positions online. Always an indicator that movement is expected imo.
I would be very surprised if this doesn't move upwards again towards the close, with people taking positions for next week.....
Will it be "deal", "no deal" or "delay"? Hmmmn, I seem to have read about that scenario in the press but don't think they were talking about Cluff...... ;-)

Suspect wind of an RNS being logged for 7am tomorrow......

Can sell 100k shares at 2.825p

Moving up now in anticipation of imminent news?

So Glencore have accepted shares instead of payment it seems.Increasing their stake to over 6%....Interesting!

"While his views on climate change may rub some of the Davos audience the wrong way, Mr Bolsonaro's pledge to make it easier to do business in Brazil will go down well.

He pledges to propel Brazil into the top 50 on the ease of doing business leaderboard.

Mr Bolsonaro is very much setting out Brazil's stall in front of the world's top businessmen.

He vows to "lower the tax burden" and make "closer ties with other countries"

He says that his presidency will be a "turning point" for Brazil."

Can only help make Horizonte more attractive to a bidder.
From Telegraph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/01/22/davos-2019-record-surge-ceo-pessimism-signals-global-gloom/