focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
BH read my posts. I repeated this several times already but you clearly wish me to repeat my point yet again. Funny how the P word is not allowed on here and I deliberately left it out. But you brought it up, well done!!
I said a placing was due in 2018 as per my tweet
https://mobile.twitter.com/D14M0ND55/status/1030789666918871041
I believe it was likely in November as the city are on party time in December but it will still be in 2018. Following the RNS confirming the results will be out on 13th December, although i feel it will be in 2018, i suspect it will be now by 13th December.
So we have 12 more trading days until we hear about the next fund raise. Unfortunately I will be on holiday in Mexico so will miss the news.
Well if everyone sold that are not happy here, just wonder what price the SP would drop to. Reading this board there are many that are not happy with the progress, lack of communication or clarifying future potential from current projects being worked on.
Most of the bearish views I read are perfectly justifiable but similarly, the bullish views have some justification but looking at the history since the IPO, it is difficult to have full trust in the company achieving its goals.
Another rollover from the placing mannnan - thought you would know that one
Sorry 14,425 barrels of oil total in month 7 not bopd
14,425 is the combination of Powell and Wildhorse production in the full 6 monthly figures of 16,971 x 0.85 (less 15%) giving 14,425 bopd in month 7 for wells Wildhorse and Powell.
14,425 x $48.64 (50.44-1.8) x 0.8 (Tax) x 0.075 (7.5%) is $42,098 = $42k = £33k for month 7.
Monthly figures - not daily
And if you read the title “East Denver Oil Productiion” and nothing to do with gas or water purification
I also state in my 20.09 post that “So excluding gas revenue and water purification which is a max of £50k in my view, the revenue generated by oil alone FROM ALL 8 WELLS”
But in reality, I think it is £40k not a max of £50k just to make you think and work it out yourself
Yes I could Joy but if you read my posts correctly, the gas is less than 7% of revenue from ED and water purification will hardly generate any revenue. So add around £40k per month so not a lot. But I hope you also bear in mind that the water purification revenue will currently probably not cover the associated costs with the trial.
May be you look at the administrative expenses and cashflow and compare it to the expected revenue with the current prices in line wit production already produced from East Denver. My view is with the revenue from as and water, totalling £366k will not cover the administrative costs in the first month. Each month that goes by, the cash balance will be reduced without the additional revenue from elsewhere.
All will become apparent in due course but it sounds like you agree with the oil revenue - well I suppose you have to as it is based on the current oil prices and in line with the production so far from ED
I am not Joy - I am quoting it on the current oil price and not quoting it on any future price. However in my view I think it will go lower but all figures based on the current price and in line with what the first 2 wells produced. Cannot be any more accurate than that, can I?
So I based this on the theory as specified by the company originally which worked out to £363k of revenue based on the new 6 wells for the first month of production on oil alone.
But working on the performance of the first 2 wells, the reality with the current wti only achieves revenue of £293k so a £70k loss to my first bullish objective for the new 6 wells. But with all the criticisms I worked it out for all 8 wells. And what did the reality achieve based on purely results from Wildhorse and Powell on the current oil price? Revenue of £326k from ALL 8 WELLS for the first month of oil production.
Will not be too optimistic again to obtain a balanced view and keep a few happy on revenues expected to be received. Just hope the oil price doesn’t drop further as many expect revenue starting next month but the main month will be January.
Part 2 - looking at the overall oil production for 8 wells and revenue
So let us assume wti stays the same and all the 6 wells produce this production and Wildhorse and Powell continue to reduce at 15% (over 16% in reality but let’s be optimistic). As previously said I will be looking at the main revenue to support the working capital and cash so not looking too much into gas or water even though they do provide a small part of the revenue.
Month 1 - £293k ($362k)
Month 2 - £236k ($302k)
Month 3 - £189k ($242k)
Month 4 - £166k ($213k)
Month 5 - £134k ($172k)
Month 6 - £116k ($149k)
What will Powell and Wildhorse produce at a 15% reduction per month (even though it is over 16%)
The expected revenue for the first month from the 6 wells at current prices is $1771 boepd x 3 set of 2 wells x (50.44 - 1.8) x 0.8 x 0.075 x 30 = $465k = £363k which is below the administrative expenses in my view.
Month 1 - 14,425 bopd - £33k ($42)
Month 2 - 12,261 bopd - £28k ($36)
Month 3 - 10,422 bopd - £24k ($31)
Month 4 - 8,859 bopd - £20k ($26)
Month 5 - 7,530 bopd - £17k ($22)
Month 6 - 6,400 bopd - £15k ($19)
So excluding gas revenue and water purification which is a max of £50k in my view, the revenue generated by oil alone FROM ALL 8 WELLS
Month 1 - £326k
Month 2 - £264k
Month 3 - £213k
Month 4 - £186k
Month 5 - £151k
Month 6 - £131k
Not looking good for recovering administrative expenses in my view without a further source of income. Either Kansas asap or a fund raise or both.
Part 1
Yes I am Joy - shall we work it out from $100 oil? What a silly comment! But do not worry, I think as I have said before, it will be heading to the low $40s in my view so am I looking at it from an optimistic bullish view.
But let me put it a different way for both yourself and HD. Let us look at Powell and Wildhorse production and just work the optimistic view in my opinion that oil stays where it is. The production was running over 16% losses per month which doesn’t sound much. But in the first 6 months, based on 15%, the production was 7504 barrels short which means losing $365,145 short in just the first 6 months - so just 1% is huge.
Also I based it on expected production in the first month that was supposed to hit 1549 bopd but only achieved 1379 bopd, losing 11% as expected, so again on the optimistic view. So let’s be real and work it out on the production achieved and working it out on current wti.
Now looking at Wildhorse and Powell production in the first 6 months, the next 6 wells will create revenue as below based on current wti and assuming the same production is achieved.
Month 1 - 41,366bopd
Month 2 - 34,439 (should be 35,161 at 15%)
Month 3 - 27,588 (should be 29,887 at 15%)
Month 4 - 24,281 (should be 25,404 at 15%)
Month 5 - 19,655 (should be 21,593 at 15%)
Month 6 - 16,971 (should be 18,354 at 15%)
And the gas production is less than 7% of the overall production/revenue so a little difference yes.
But no one ever seems to mention the huge loss of the major oil revenue which is 93% of revenue expected in 2019 from ED due to wti. But you seem happy to mention the gas prices which is such a fraction of the expected revenue. When just looking at oil alone, with the current wti has lost $223k in the first month alone since the high price of wti last month. So this is the major consequence and not the rise in the gas prices which increases by approx $15k per month due to the rise in gas over the same period. Hence I concentrate on oil.
You seem to utilise to suit your views also but the oil is the main point and not the gas as my point above. And neither is water purification which will not generate too much revenue in the short or medium term.
Extrapolate this loss for all next year if oil stays this low and potentially even lower. My clear point for 6 months has been that there is not enough cash to cover administrative costs (not overheads) and working capital without Kansas. As the ED revenue is reducing considerably, this puts even more pressure on the BOD. But we will all be much clearer on Dec 13th when we know the cash value at the end of September and the administrative expenses.
Also if you actually look at the drop in oil production, it is slightly over 15% but do you take that into account? No.
I feel it best to concentrate on the major revenue stream which is oil with gas and water purification of considerably less importance. This is the main revenue stream to support working capital for other projects without further funds being required.
But let’s hope the HNR “anticipate a revenue contribution during 2019” actually starts in early 2019 with a great new revenue stream and not later in the year where production/sales do not create the revenue that is required.
At least I use an abacus HD rather than bullish speculative waffle that gives other investors hope that isn’t actually there. Many shouldn’t have listened too much to you since our discussion started on twitter on 24th July and August which seems to continue as you always seem to attack me - personally I just ignore your rampish posts but if you think
“Significant progress has also been made with Highlands' nitrogen, project in Kansas. The Company remains in discussions with several parties with regard to commercialising this project and the directors anticipate a revenue contribution during 2019.”
Is bullish then so be it. It has been in advanced discussions and now significant progress but they “anticipate” revenue contributing during 2019. Revenue contributing doesn’t sound too big does it and during 2019. You would have thought they would say Q1 or H1 to at least give some encouragement to help support the SP while wti is reducing week after week.
Hence why I am sitting on the fence as this needs to be clarified first on top of the financial position the company has to ensure what you believe - they have enough cash to cover their overheads in 2019. My point is still completely different as the overheads is a small part of the administrative costs but this will become apparent when it is too late. Clearly the overheads which tend to be fixed cover the salaries, accounts, lawyers, insurance, licenses, government fees, property taxes, rent and utilities.
The overheads though do not cover the direct costs which are those costs required to create products and services, such as direct materials and direct labor. Overhead and direct costs, when combined, equal all of the administrative expenses incurred by a company.
So the larger value in the administrative expenses are not the overheads but the direct costs in my view. The direct costs lawyers required for DTU, direct labour costs, direct materials, drilling costs etc. Still we will get a better picture on Dec 13th.
JJAL - If you read my post it was purely on the new 6 wells. Yes there will be revenue from the other 2 wells and so there will be some revenue from water purification also.
Yes there is 31 days in January but I also pointed out that the monthly production will drop by 15% per month and so used the 30 day average. Otherwise there are only 28 days in February so best to use 30 days in my view otherwise the drop in February would be closer to 25% so hopefully you feel the view I used is more balanced.
MVB78 - yes I have been bearish and quite rightly so since the announcement of the last set of accounts on July 24th with the SP at 25p. Clearly on this board you can only seem to post bullish views but the bulls have been caught out by the actions of the BODs so far.
But hopefully this will change and is why I am sitting on the fence waiting for the appropriate time to see how Kansas develops where there is great potential. Until clarifiatuon on what the costs and revenue is expected from Kansas.together with fhe financial position which hopefully will be clarified on 13th December, the picture will hopefully be much clearer and a better judgement of where the company is going in 2019.
The Kansas Project is the main project to get underway but numbers are required first. Yes there have been many speculations of what many are expecting but these advanced discussions need to be confirmed with numbers attached. Still only a few weeks to go.
Down from $76.81 achieved on 3rd October, a loss of 34.33% since then. The figures for the first months revenue is based on the current price and achieving the goals that Wildhorse and Powell achieved.
Based on the Initial Production Summary used for Wildhorse and Powell
· Wildhorse and Powell combined oil production rate is 1,569 BOPD
· Wildhorse and Powell combined gas production rate is 1,212 MCFPD
· Combined IP production rate of both oil and gas is 1,771 BOEPD
· Overall, Highlands expects to greatly benefit from high production rates, rising oil prices and the quality of East Denver’s oil due to its light, sweet properties
o Strong realized sales price for the month of November – the NYMEX WTI spot price less US$1.80
Another big loss there closing today at $50.44 having hit the 76.4% Fib at $50.33. Still see this hitting the $42 in due course - timing of this drop is not good timing for HNR. The oil price has tried to bounce off every Fib level so far but has been unsuccessful.
The expected revenue for the first month from the 6 wells at current prices is $1771 boepd x 3 set of 2 wells x (50.44 - 1.8) x 0.8 x 0.075 x 30 = $465k = £363k which is below the administrative expenses in my view.
Just have to wait until 13th December though until these administrative figures are confirmed. Fully expect these to be around £2.8m for the half year with a cash in the bank being around £2.5m at the end of September with payables and receivables balancing themselves out. Just hope these figures HNR achieve as anything worse, the pressure will be put on a further good revenue source pretty imminently and not just a potential revenue sometime in 2019.
So a little way off from the projected revenue of over $600k (£469k) which RP projected last month. Also assuming they also achieve great results on all the 6 wells being in the top 3% of the wells in this area. Sure True will achieve this but so much financial pressure being put on the BODs without any control by the company.
If wti hits $42 which I feel is very possible, the revenue will be reduced to $384k (£300k) and reducing by 15% per month and not a monthly figure several posters have said a few times.
Any adult sensible response would be much appreciated to at least create a sensible discussion
Mentioned on 4th October a placing above 1p was unlikely with me identifying a good trade around 0.5p on 8th October - looks very likely
See a placing around 0.5p as the waffle from the BODs is rubbish and will need money very soon. That is where I see the placing at 0.5p.
Where have the rampers gone? Those that believe they have enough money to positive cashflow, no placing is thereforerequired and those that believe the Allenby report is 100% accurate!!
Still the only one buying is the non exec Chairman - personally see it as a spoof to try and generate interest to support the SP as they need to raise funds relatively soon.
I’ve mentioned this before IANS but they obviously love me to continue to post
But not sure what his average is but crossed the threshold in July around 22p. Sp no wonder he needs to average down at a 50% discount to his previous buys so knowing one of the founders hasn’t done him much good so far. Clearly his vision in July seems to have got his timing wrong
These critics here just goes to show how many that clearly got this wrong also. The SP hitting its forever low on Monday since it’s IPO and my views are completely wrong - oh yes, what a numpty I am.
Just again waiting for the name calling and pathetic responses I usually get. Have a good evening all 😄
Overhead is those costs required to run a business, but which cannot be directly attributed to any specific business activity, product, or service. Thus, overhead costs do not directly lead to the generation of profits. Overhead is still necessary, since it provides critical support for the generation of profit-making activities. For example, a high-end clothier must pay a substantial amount for rent (a type of overhead) in order to be located in an adequate facility for the sale of clothes. The clothier must pay overhead to create the proper retail environment for its customers. Examples of overhead are:
Accounting and legal expenses
Administrative salaries
Depreciation
Insurance
Licenses and government fees
Property taxes
Rent
Utilities
Overhead costs tend to be fixed, which means that they do not change from period to period. Examples of fixed overhead costs are depreciation and rent. Less frequently, overhead varies directly with the sales level, or varies somewhat as the activity level changes.
The other type of expense is direct costs, which are those costs required to create products and services, such as direct materials and direct labor. Overhead and direct costs, when combined, equal all of the expenses incurred by a company.
A business should set its long-term product prices at levels that account for both its overhead costs and direct costs. Doing so allows it to earn a profit on a long-term basis. However, it is is possible to ignore overhead costs for the pricing of special one-time deals, where the minimum price point only has to exceed the relevant direct costs.