Member Info for CynderLad

I have Ozzy on filter, but as Offy replied as commented on Ozzy calling me a liar.

1. £1.6m cash at end of Sept is a FACT - see the results and RNS.
2. £2.2m placing on 2nd Oct is a FACT - see the RNS
3. Burn rate of £266k per month is a FACT - see the results ending Sept 2020 and extrapolate.
4. Production rates at HH have dropped, FACT - see the formal OGA stats
5. Water cut increase at HH is a FACT - see the formal OGA stats
6. Few activities on site is a FACT - have UKOG shown or announced any workovers, any rigs, any cranes, compare versus 12 months ago. So lower spend there.
7. UKOG will have had to pay AME cash for the work to date. FACT, no way will AME do anything on credit.
8. UKOG are therefore short of cash, FACT. Backed by the FACT that they also held a GM to pass 2 resolutions to allow them to issue upto 8 BILLION new shares (FACT) of nominal value £800k. If issued with a SP of 0.18p, then 8 Billion shares would give UKOG cash of £14.4m. Why would UKOG look to issue 8 BILLION shares if they did not need cash?

All FACTS, no LIES! Ozzy, enjoy your weekend and rest assured that I cannot see a single word that you post!

Cheers, I did that just to see if anyone was bothering to read and analyse my post. :-)
UKOG are well short of cash.

Maybe there are issues with Snow that is delaying the rig.
Or maybe it is as I have called it all along, UKOG do not have the cash to pay AME.
As stated before:

Cash as of end of Sept 2020 : £1.6m
Placing on 2nd Oct 2020 : £2.2m
Cash balance as of 2nd Oct 2020 : £3.8m

Losses / overheads per month based on the latest results:
Oct : -£266k
Nov : -£266k
Dec : -£266k
Jan : -£266k
Feb : -£266k
Mar : -£266k
Apr : -£266k
May : -£266k
Total loss since Oct 2nd: £2.1m

Remaining cash : £1.7m (£3.8m - £2.1m)

Turkey costs : Capped at $5m for "initial" drill. GBP to USD £1 = $1.141, thus costs for Turkey of £4.38m

I'll assume that UKOG have paid out £1m for the work to date in Turkey, leaving £0.7m left and cash calls from AME of £3.38m. Thus they are somewhere in the region of £2.68m short to pay AME.

But that's the only consideration. They will need £266k per month to cover the UK through to end of 2021. 7 months @ £266k = £1.862m

Combined, I forecast that UKOG are short £4.5m.

Please note that the £266k loss is based on the most recent results and burn rate. Since which UKOG have produced less oil at HH but at a higher market rate. They have also performed very few activities at HH that would burn cash other than the day to day operational overheads (e.g. not seen many cranes in ages). However, the water cut has increased and the costs of disposal will create considerable overheads (probably offset the benefit in the rise of Brent).

Will SCC send representation to the Loxley hearing? Will Sando go to the hearing?
I cannot wait to see the look on Penny Rivers face when SCC get overturned, she'll have to weep into her gin with her XR mates and Ms Finch will be back on the cakes.

As expected, the SP is drifting lower. Placing / open offer will be a significant discount. I think Sando is struggling to get a partner to take on the placing and he must be fresh out of II interest. Poor Sando, will he get paid in July? The bank balance is v low. Just waiting for them to announce redundancies so that the board can get paid for a month longer.

Turkey is dead. Enough said.

Where are the rampers? Have they been called into an all-hands meeting in NE India?

SS has a serious issue right now. Historic placings have largely been at a time where the volumes have been high, it's clear that many of the placings were forward sold (~50%) into the market ahead of RNS with high volumes. That allowed the financing partner to sell at a profit (as they were given 15% to 20% discount much of the time).

Now, the headache is that the volumes are pitiful, they cannot forward sell 50% of the placing shares into the market, it would take a long time to forward sell 50% of 4 billion shares. Placing partners clearly would not want to take a risk of selling the full 100% into the market post RNS as we all know that the SP drops to the discounted value, hence they lose their option for a quick and easy profit on at least 50% of their holding. This leaves them having to hold all the risk.

The issue is that UKOG cannot pay AME for the next stages of Turkey without that cash, I doubt that AME will work on an IOU basis. So there is unlikely to be Turkey news to drive volume and thus oil the wheels for the placing partner to forward sell.

It's a paradox, chicken and egg style. UKOG need a placing to raise the cash to pay for Turkey, but they need Turkey to create volume for the placing. Which comes first?

So, it may be that instead of a placing, we see the open offer first. Problem there is, how many LTH'ers would be interested in buying more confetti and how many traders would be interested in said same confetti? Unless there is a serious discount and some proper Turkey updates, then the uptake is likely to be low.

Good luck with that one SS, you've dug yourself a massive hole. Was someone asking about competency???

If Turkey ever happens, and it's a duster, then is that game over for UKOG? Just putting the risk issue on the table for debate. They'll burn all the cash from placing on Turkey, the remains will go on UK overheads for 2021. So from Jan 2022, will UKOG be able to survive without even further placings? HH is not going to give them sufficient asset level profit to cover the UK overheads, and it certainly isn't going to pay for HH3 / HH4 or Loxley.

if Turkey <> dead
then
if Turkey == duster
UKOG delist 2022
else
pray that Turkey BOPD = > 200
endif
endif

Lots of IF's, lots of simple commercial MUST's, otherwise its adios amigos from the UKOG board as they retire on their nice reserves from being over-rewarded for years.

Placing has been the worst kept secret of AIM since October 2020. They did not raise anywhere near enough cash Oct 2nd, £2.2m was well shy of the $5m that they need for the "initial" drill in Turkey.

My filter bin is working overtime. So I guess it's someone criticising me.
Well, if you want to criticise, go ahead. but make sure that you come with some hard facts based on review of the accounts.
£1.6 m cash and £2.2m placing cash as of 2nd Oct 2021 is a hard fact, it's in the results and RNS'd, you cannot argue with that.
$5m capped "initial" costs for Turkey is also a fact.
Burn rate as per results is also a fact, whether £266k loss in the UK since Sept 2020 is up for debate, but with the depleting oil production at HH (fact as per OGA) and increase in water cut (fact as per OGA), then I would expect the losses to be higher not lower.

So in case anyone is alleging that I am making things up, it's all there as facts as per formal company results/RNS and in OGA figures.

UKOG are flat broke, placing is needed. One thing I would concede is whether AME may be nudged into drilling without UKOG paying the bills. I have some knowledge of Turkish culture, and I'll say for what it is worth, not on your nelly will they incur costs without being paid.

Let the naysayers and the rampers say what they want, it's all without any empirical financial analysis from the results.

Weald oilers on Twitter is one to block if you are invested in UJO. He's a scaremonger who hates that UJO is on the cusp of massive news and success, as he's still in love with UKOG which is losing most folks a small fortune.

and to add some further facts to the below.

UKOG have only issued one picture update on Turkey since 12th May, and they soon removed it as the only progress was to show a pond liner being fitted to an evaporation pond and some very lightweight fencing (+25m) being installed by the pond.

4 weeks since a meaningful picture update from Turkey. DO you really think that AME have mobilised the rig and installed all the necessary kit? If they had then UKOG would be all over it trying to get the SP up ahead of the placing. Fact is that AME haven't mobilised anything yet as UKOG haven't paid the bills and AME being Turkish don't do credit lines...

LMAO.

Seriously.

UKOG do not have the cash to pay AME to spud the Turkey well. So UKOG will need to raise cash to cover the costs.

Placing will therefore come before spud, and will be at a serious discount to the SP of 0.2p. I've thinking it will be 20% below the current ask, 0.16p if the placing was today. But will all savvy investors knowing that the placing is coming, then the SP should drift lower. If it drifts to 0.18p by the end of this week, then the placing could be at 0.14p.

All my opinion, but it is clear that UKOG are flat out of cash.

£3.8m in the bank as of 2nd Oct (£1.6m cash and £2.2m placing). Monthly UK loses of £266k. Turkey "initial" costs of upto $5m (~£3.6m).

Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May costs in the UK = 8 * £266k = £2.128m.
Turkey costs = £3.6m
Combined = £5.8128m
Cash as of Oct = £3.8m
Shortfall = £2m.

So they are short of £2m to pay AME right now, and have no cash left to pay UK costs in June 2020. Talk about cutting it fine. That is why they had the GM yesterday, they are absolutely flat out of cash. SS will want his monthly wages and AME will want paying.

Hence my earlier views. Placing will come well in advance of Spud and will therefore be in the 0.14p to 0.16p range if done between today and Friday.

Alternatively, go listen to the ramper crew who don't want to discuss burn rates or cash positions!

Wizard, remind us of the SP today please?

Oofy, That is the % of shares owned by holders that could be bothered to register and vote. If you don't register, then you don't vote. So you can see it was a very small number that were bothered.

Ocelot, you have got to be kidding. "share price itself may be rising", it's down 4.76% today on this so called good news that the rampers claim.

Seedcorn,

So would the following question not be relevant?

"Can you please confirm the funding situation for Turkey and the current shortfall, of the £800k nominal value (which could create 8 billion shares), how much do you need to raise in the next 3 months to cover the commitments made to AME?"

If that is not a relevant question, then what is?

ocelot should focus on the % of shares that were used in the voting. ~5%

That is hardly a massive vote of support.

p.s. PI's just signed off on 13Billion shares becoming 21Billion shares. Sando just sold you a £5 for £10.