Member Info for CynderLad

LMAO. Seriously, the ramping is a feast for the rainbow chasers. How many unicorns do Wizard and TH2 own between them?

Just wanting to check my facts on this one.

Rathlin is owned by Connaught Oil and Gas, which itself is a privately owned company. Rathlin are the operator of WN.
They cannot go to the open market and raise cash through a placing or CLN. They can only draw finance from the private sector not from the market.

So, you have to ask, if they have garnered cash from private equity raises then they are probably onto something very big at WN. Not saying from one minute that it's not possible to hood wink folks through private equity raises, but it's a very different arrangement when compared to a listed company.

Can someone share any insights into the financial background of Rathlin / Connaught. I'd like to know more. On the cusp of something very big at WN (potentially).

In the RNS's for Turkey, SS points out that the log data from the drills back in the mid 20th century where poor by modern standards. Logs may have been poor, but the old timers knew their game well. If the results where good, then they would have put a lot of wells into the ground there and the log data would have been surpassed by production data for a long period of time.

My conclusion, if the oil shows and recovery to surface were good, then the commentary right now would not be about poor quality logs.

Further comment on poor logs; how much effort does one put into a log if the results are poor. My view; not a great deal compared to the data if the results were good. I accept that it was a long time ago, exploration folks now keep huge volumes of raw data, summarised data and detailed reports. But back then it would be a case of "this doesn't look great, basic log entry, and let's go to another site. Mark this area as of no particular interest.".

Another word on the old timers; Oil industry vs gold industry. The gold miners in the Yukon, Montana, etc, etc, all knew how to survey and then mine prospects. They had basic equipment by modern standards, in fact, many used pick/shovel, water monitors and wood for riffles, but they managed to mine out all the major plays. They didn't miss much. Just because the old ways seem outdated, doesn't mean that they didn't know what they were doing. Just because there is not much data in the old logs for Basur, doesn't mean that the old timers there were dumb. They knew exactly what they were doing and had the kit to explore, drill, assess the prospects. They decided it wasn't worth the effort. Yes new technology, seismic, etc all make for better data sets, but if the old timers didn't strike black gold, then I'd bet a pound to a penny that UKOG/AME will not succeed either; that's unless you consider 50 bopd to be a good figure.

In closing, don't dis' the old timers. I've met a few old gold miners in my time and they are very street wise.

Penguins,

Did UKOG ever release any indication of sustainable flow rates for BB? Am thinking that if Brent were to reach $100 that a lower production output could be commercial.

Or is it game over for that site and more a case of abandonment costs? How much would the abandonment cost?

Be interested in your views as I've not researched the whole BB situation, I have it down as a write off with costs > £500k.

Have they gone to the beach, or are they close to site and holding back on updates?
That Broberspam bloke seems to post a good deal of info, but it's dried up, has he used up his 4G data allowance?
Waiting for news now, how long until an RNS with update?
AGM due on the 26th June? Are there any resolutions associated with this, I've not seen anything published.

Interesting to see a smaller junior oiler take the opportunity to appoint a new CEO to drive the company forward.
Also saw that PRIM have Rupert Labrum in as CEO quite recently and their SP has reacted positively.

Will SS still be CEO come end of 2021?

The harsh reality is that it is very likely that a placing is being forward sold. I'm looking at Thursday or Friday for the RNS. If Share Prophets are correct, then 2 BILLION shares at 0.17p. If that RNS does land this week, then the SP is likely to follow suit, hence 0.5p is not going to happen, you are more likely to see 0.165p.

No major is going to be interested in a well that delivers 500 bopd on a 6 hour initial test. Basur is a dead play.

If there was a leak then I'm sure that BMD would be all over it.
p.s. has he had that shave yet?

Here are some facts for you:
1) Today marked the first Turkey update since 12th May (the tweet on the 31st was deleted). Hardly fast progress.
2) The $5m capped costs for the "initial" drill in Turkey. Note the word "initial", be careful reading UKOG RNS's as they are selective in what they share and "initial" means just that, i.e. there will be further costs.
3) UKOG only had £1.6m cash left at end of Sept 2020, and raised £2.2m on Oct 2nd. Giving them a balance of £3.8m cash at of early Oct.
4) HH oil production is dropping like a stone, and the water cut has increased. Water disposal costs will be eating into profits. Will the price of Brent serve to offset the water disposal costs, or will the monthly losses incurred by UKOG in running UK operations worsen?
5) Burn rate in the results posted end of Sept 2020 show a loss of £266k per month, that's quite bad. That is a fact, it's not made up, it's all there in the accounts, you have never provided a counter argument on that point.
6) Its now close to 9 months since the end of Sept. 9 * £266k loss = £2.4m loss. Leaving just £1.4m of the cash that they had in Oct. Extrapolated figured of course, but unless you can demonstrate the UK overheads have suddenly dropped or that HH is producing a lot more oil and less water, then you cannot argue against that point.
7) AME will not take confetti or IOU's, UKOG will have tried that and AME will be wise to the games. Why wouldn't AME take confetti if the drill was nailed on? Why would AME look for 100% funding for the first well if it was nailed on?
8) UKOG need to pay AME ~£3.6m, have they even paid £1m yet? Where is the rest of the cash coming from?
9) The 2 resolutions at the GM allow UKOG to issue a further 8 BILLION shares, thats a huge dilution on the existing 13 BILLION shares.

But, sure, if you are here as part of the P&D squad, you don't want to read the above, you'll shy away from a proper debate, and just call me a naysayer.

DYOR and careful with the rainbow chasing, you'll learn one day that the CEO already stole the pot of gold and left nothing but a mountain of abandonment costs for someone else to pick up whilst he's enjoying retirement.

SO UJO on the cusp of announcing initial EWT results at WN, with gas flare observed to be very decent. Wressle due for squeeze to increase output to 500 bopd. Sentiment is not great and SP has weakened.

Meanwhile over at the junior oiler in the Weald/Turkey, the SP is on the up because they have a rig onsite at a back-water site in Turkey that is likely 80%+ to be a duster, a placing using billions of shares and 30+ dilution is on the cards, and the SP is on the up.

Seriously, there are a lot of muppets out there when it comes to choosing good junior oil stock picks. UJO is my pick for a good return in 2021. UKOG is on my do not touch list. But there you go. Take your pick.

Just my opinion of course, DYOR.

I'd recommend an egg cup rather than a bucket.

Then consider the following:

"Basur-1 produced 500 barrels of oil from a short 6-hour test. Further wells drilled in the 1950s to the southwest within the Resan area of the structure reported good oil shows at comparable depths to those at Basur, with one well recovering live oil to surface."
1) So just 500 bopd on a 6 hour test
2) "with one well recovering live oil to surface", so how many wells did they drill and how many were dusters. Pin the donkey anyone?

"It should be noted that the data quality, record keeping and operational practices employed in Basur-Resan's 1950s-60s wells are considered poor by modern standards, hence the necessity for new 21st century data acquisition and knowledge to properly assess the discovery's overlooked potential."
1) Poor by modern standards, but the proof of the pudding is in the eating, doesn't matter how poor records may be by modern standards, if there was sufficient oil there, then they would have put many more wells into the prospect.
2) "to properly assess", does not mean that it is a nailed on drill.
3) 23rd July 2020 RNS stated: ""The Company's and AME's evaluations of the available 1950s and 1960s well and geological data conclude that potentially significant moveable oil within the naturally fractured Mardin has been overlooked by prior operators in both Basur and Resan". So the old logs were good enough to ask PI's to fund the punt, but are poor by modern standards. Gotta love the consistency of their attitude towards the old logs huh.

"This welcome news is yet further confirmation that the pace of operations is far more rapid in Turkey than the UK, taking only 3 months from the start of site construction to the arrival of the drilling rig. "
1) Come 23rd July, it'll be a mere 12 months since their announced entry into Turkey. That's hardly rapid and you can get good quality stone dust from most building merchants in the UK at a fraction of the cost.

p.s. Lucky-strike already in my filter bin. Usual games as that of Ocelot, TH2, etc, etc, making wild claims and ramping for 10p a post.

Read it anyway you like.

Initial 500 bopd on short term test of Basur 1.
Saying that logs back in the day were poorly kept.

I say the following:
SS is basically calling the old timers a bunch of muppets. Well, the old timers knew the game well and knew whether it was worth further drills. Some of the past drills had oil shows and recovered oil to the surface. I'd look at the use of the word "some" in that sentence.

I'm afraid, that the only winners here are:
day traders who buy and sell into the spike.
Sando and his mates coining in over inflated salaries and bonuses.
Placing partners making 10 to 15% profit on forward selling shares.

LTH'ers will continue to be treated very poorly by a CEO that continues to refuse to do Investor calls and is looking at investing a miserly 5 to 10% of his salary into shares (note that they still haven't said how long they must hold those shares for as a minimum).

500 bopd on a 6 hour flow test is terrible. It needs to be 500 bopd for a few years to make Turkey a goer.
500 bopd 6 hour test, but what was the Basur 1 production over a 12 month. You can't bank a long term profit unless you have good long term production.

p.s. UKOG still well short of the cash to cover Turkey and UK overheads. A further 8 BILLION shares will be issued by March 2022.

Something extra, go on, pray tell. Does it have a 4ft x 4ft base area? Maybe the portaloo has turned up, rental costs probably covered by what UKOG have left in the bank. Just waiting for the tweet to land showing us the majesty of the enclosed plastic throne complete with 2 free rolls of bog paper.

LOL, is Ozzy still posting here. He's in my filter bin. Poor lad must be gutted that he's so far under water with his £500 investment. Correct I sold my £10 worth. Wait too long and I would have only got £5 back for it. But then Sando has been a master of selling PI's £5 notes for £10.

Talking of which, where is Sando? He's not been seen or heard from for weeks. Still no investor calls, he really is a grade A CEO right....

Ozzy..... just for you.... as you'll read my posts..... But I will not read yours........ Lots of pointless dots..... to follow up pointless statements...... .... .... Price of fish huh...... Enjoy your weekend..... Maybe get to site..... take some photos...... Send them off to Sando...... Ask for him to sign them...... pin them on your ceiling......

Wizard,

If AME were willing to start the drill without being paid, then 37 days since the last update would suggest that they would have done so by now and that UKOG would be tweeting away to get the volumes up to help them get a placing away.

Unfortunately, AME have not mobilised, there is no rig on site, and Sando cannot get a placing away (which he favours over an open offer) as the usual business partners do not want to take the risk of trying to sell a huge volume of shares into a market where the SP is drifting down. They'll lose money on the deal.

Wizard,

You been smoking something? 3p per share in placing/open offer.

It'll be 15% to 20% discount on current SP, so 8 BILLION * 0.16p would give £12.8 million.

I've already said that I believe that there will be 3 fund raises to cover the rest of 2021. But they are not going to get £240m.

LOL
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LOL

Wizard brings all the facts to the table. oh wait, no he doesn't. Just like Ozzy, TH and OCelot. All they bring is opinion.

Here are some facts for you:
1) No Turkey update since 12th May (the tweet on the 31st was deleted). That's 37 days ago. So much for Turkey being a quick and easy drill.
2) The $5m capped is just for the "initial" drill. Note the word "initial", be careful reading UKOG RNS's as they are selective in what they share and "initial" means just that, i.e. there will be further costs.
3) UKOG only had £1.6m cash left at end of Sept 2020, and raised £2.2m on Oct 2nd. Giving them a balance of £3.8m cash at of early Oct.
4) HH oil production is dropping like a stone, and the water cut has increased. Water disposal costs will be eating into profits. Will the price of Brent serve to offset the water disposal costs, or will the monthly losses incurred by UKOG in running UK operations worsen?
5) Burn rate in the results posted end of Sept 2020 show a loss of £266k per month, that's quite bad. That is a fact, it's not made up, it's all there in the accounts, you have never provided a counter argument on that point.
6) Its now close to 9 months since the end of Sept. 9 * £266k loss = £2.4m loss. Leaving just £1.4m of the cash that they had in Oct. Extrapolated figured of course, but unless you can demonstrate the UK overheads have suddenly dropped or that HH is producing a lot more oil and less water, then you cannot argue against that point.
7) AME will not take confetti or IOU's, UKOG will have tried that and AME will be wise to the games. Why wouldn't AME take confetti if the drill was nailed on? Why would AME look for 100% funding for the first well if it was nailed on?
8) UKOG need to pay AME ~£3.6m, have they even paid £1m yet? Where is the rest of the cash coming from?
9) The 2 resolutions at the GM allow UKOG to issue a further 8 BILLION shares, thats a huge dilution on the existing 13 BILLION shares.

So, you better go back to your WhatsApp group and work out how you can argue against the above points, you'll fail, and then resort to the usual posts and abuse.