Member Info for CynderLad

Read that RNS closely and read between the lines.
- No flow rates
- Downgrade in STOIIP / GIIP figures
- Study required for reservation stimulation
- Further cash calls for other sites.

I'd be disappointed if UJO committed any further cash to drilling the WN prospects. They'd be better off trying to sell their holding, not sure it's worth much now though.

Wressle does look decent and is the saviour right now.
DB should do an interview and show his face to PI's rather than showing PIES to his face.

Agreed ZYX, and how much will it cost to drill another duster in Turkey? AME took the UKOG coin and did a proper job on them. No doubt that AME took a little profit in pass-thru charge + margin.

Whatever Adrian, aka FOTH. You are not fooling anyone.
You're probably dreaming of getting a profit based on the Director Share Purchase Plan, how's that one going for you?

CEO = not in my opinion. SS does not act like a CEO, does not do investor calls or interviews and hides bad news. That's the epitome of something completed different to a CEO, and akin to something I'd not want to step in or have to wipe off my shoes.

Tony,

Good point, re Arreton.

However, would you care to comment on how many BILLION shares SS will need to issue to cover the cash calls for IoW + Loxley? What does that mean in terms of dilution? What's happened to the SP in the past when there have been placings / CLNs?

Two sides of the coin, do you only ever throw a heads?

Ask another question, get a different answer.

How long are Rathlin granted to run an EWT for?

They would have to finish testing at some point, and then guess what, they'd have to demobilise certain equipment from site.

The Brobberspam bloke on Twitter. Did he post a video of the string being pulled from well, shortly followed by rig being demobilised?

So back to my previous question, how long can they test for? Do they need a rig on-site for the full period? Can they not continue testing without a rig? Can they have a crane back on-site when needed? After all, you don't need a rig to pull the pipes from the well and then shut it in.

Maybe another question would help here; would you pay for a rig (expensive fixed daily rate) to be kept on-site when you don't need one, and would you just order a crane (low cost) in when needed?

I reserve judgement on whether the testing is finished. We can all speculate on what is happening. I'll wait for the formal RNS to land rather than place any trust in people on Twitter who have a pure hatred of the company.

p.s. Roofers Hound, if you are reading, then be great to see a fly-over vid from you to show what is happening there sometime this week.

Do you really think that there is a leak? Let's look at it.

1) Turkey seismic - hardly a game changer and will take considerable time to shoot the seismic, process and report (certainly far too soon given where they were in the summer).

2) Loxley planning appeal - absolutely nailed on, I'd argue that the SP already has a success priced in.

3) HH2z water injector - waiting on OGA (& EA?) - doesn't really change the game, may just reduce water disposal costs.

If there was a leak, from the quietest CEO on AIM, then I'd be amazed. The only leak I see is water from HH1.

None of the news is changing the tangible value of any assets. It's just opening the door the massive cash calls.

DYOR.

My view: "Keep your hard earned elsewhere, protect your investments, don't save the UKOG CEO"

LOL.

A couple of factors to consider.
1) Some savvy traders (not me) bought in sub 0.135p and are now ready to take a 15% profit
2) A bunch of folks took a job lot of shares at 0.18p and will have some desire to sell those for a small profit. Some may actually a small loss on those, others may be looking to sell at 0.19p.

Regardless of the L2, I see restriction at both 0.17p and 0.19p, and there is a lot to shift, there will be selling.

The only news due is that for Loxley, and as said before, that does not change the fundamentals of the company, still rubbish assets, poor cash position and the worst CEO on AIM. In fact, the Loxley win means that there will be a huge cash call and considerable Sanderson confetti, be prepared to see 25% dilution.

As said before, I'm not going to risk a trade on UKOG, I'm not sharp enough to sell on a very short term spike. Good luck to those with bottletops.

Yes, the usual pre-news buy in by traders ready to make a quick % on the spike.

Suckers gonna be suckered. Be careful folks.

No amount of Planning Appeal victory will change the fundamentals of the company; rubbish assets, limited cash, dreadful CEO.

Tranquillo, I thought you reserved your LSE forays for the weekend.

i.e. We all know that you are Adrian, aka FOTH, trying out a new account and new approach on a Monday.

Don't tell them your name Pike!

Yeah, we know BKP tankers are rolling. At 95 bopd, then there should be 3 per week. But do we ever see more than 1 per week? Maybe it is only N66BKP that tweets and his fellow drivers don't bother.

at 95 bopd, HH will deliver just shy of 35k barrels per annum. With costs at $15 and Brent at $80, that would deliver $2.25m profit in asset level profit.

But what are the full UK operating overheads and what (if anything) do they need to share with ALBA? Don't talk about he HHDL loans though. LOL.

Tranquillo, as far as junior oilers go (max 1% of my portfolio), then I am invested in OEX and UJO. I do not have a penny invested in UKOG. I don't have the appetite for a speculative trade that requires the timing of Sachin Tendulkar in his pomp.

Positive Turkey news. Don't make me laugh. It was dead on day 1.
The only positive news you'll get on Turkey, is that Iceland have restocked and are now throwing in free stuffing.

In the appeal, I do recall SS confirming that Xodus had reprocessed the old data sets, but had taken into account inputs from other consultants in relation to how the data should be modelled.

I wonder how much UKOG paid these "other consultants", who these "consultants" are, and whether it was SS throwing them the coinage that swayed them to model the data differently. It seems that SS got the outcome he wanted as the figures went up.

Loxely will be another duster if drilled. Pointless waste of money in my opinion. Be better off tapping up OEX to see if they are looking for a partner in India.

Ibug,

You do realise that the cash balance as of 31st March 2021 pre-dates the mobilisation of the rig at Basur-3.
The site preparations commenced on the 23rd March 2021.

In your calcs, are you suggesting that the £3.16m is the cost of Turkey, and the *full* cost? As we all know that their capped spend does not cover all costs.

Time will tell, shame that the CEO is so quiet and refuses to do investor calls or provide updates on funding and plans for the next 8 months. Who knows that they'll do between now and next May; my suspicion is that they will so SFA and keep the trotters up.

I'm not "het up" Ibug. Maybe you were reading my posts with a predetermined mindset that I was posting with a bit of angst.

Far from it.

I am simply pointing out that UKOG have limited capacity to raise further funds between now and the next AGM.

They'll struggle to raise more than £1.5m with the allowances granted using the portion of shares that can be used in a placing, and they'll not hoodwink PI's with an open offer a second time around. All in all, I think that they are unlikely to get more than £1.8m in at a push.

My next point, and this one is quite important.

I think UKOG need more than £1.8m between now and the next AGM to remain afloat.

I did say back in July that UKOG would do further fundraising by way of placing(s) this year, and I stick to my guns on that.

The next notable point is that I don't believe that they will have any funds to do anything with HH2z until after the next AGM. They will of course be doing a minimum of 2 placings in 2022/2023 and I'd expect a further 8 BILLION shares to be thrown into the mix. They certainly won't be able to borrow or secure RBL to cover the costs of Loxley.

Throw in the extra costs that Turkey will present, and given that similar wells in the area are providing only low output, then they are not going to see a transformational revenue stream coming in from there.

So Placing for considerable cash to drill Loxley (which will be a duster in my opinion).
No cash for IoW (planning likely to be refused and then there will be an appeal, in my opinion).
No cash for HH2z conversion to injector (pending OGA approval anyway)
No cash for the extra commitments in Turkey
No cash for BB abandonment, and they'll soon have to deal with that quite soon (I doubt that they'll get another extension)
And only a dribble of profit at asset level from Horndean & HH, which is insufficient to cover the company overheads.

So all in all, UKOG look a terrible prospect, with the only real objective by the CEO and his fellow directors seemingly to be to take the salary (bonuses?) until the company folds.

All in my opinion of course, would love it if someone could bat back on the above and show (through accounts and burn rate) how UKOG will be able to deliver anything (that is a success) without massive cash calls.

Ibug, I think you have to understand that they are limited to 8 BILLION shares in total, not 8 Billion as per resolution 1 and a further 4 Billion as per resolution 2. And of the 8 BILLION only 4 have the pre-exemption rights waived. Do you understand?

In case you missed it:

As per RNS on 9th July : (UKOG) "proposes to raise up to £4.7m (before expenses) via an Open Offer of up to 2,643,429,529 Open Offer Shares at £0.0018 per New Ordinary Share"

As per RNS on 27th July: "The Company received valid applications in respect of a total of 256,974,621 new ordinary shares in the Company ("Open Offer Shares"). The aggregate amount raised pursuant to the Open Offer was £462,554."

So they raised just shy of 10% of what they had set out to achieve via open offer. How do you think they will fare when trying to peddle ~3.5 BILLION shares of what remains eligible via Open Offer? Do you think that they can pull the same trick again and if so, do you think the same people that lost out last time would put their hands in the pockets again?

I should correct that.

UKOG issued 2,763,888,878 new ordinary shares on 5th July.

They have allowance to issue £800,000 of nominal shares at 0.01p each. Thus 8 Billion in TOTAL, of which £400,000 can bee issued in accordance with resolution 2 in the AGM that allowed them to "dis-apply the statutory rights of pre-emption".

So, they have £400,000 nominal shares (4 Billion shares) that can be used in placings, of which 2,763,888,878 have already been issued.

That leaves 1,236,111,122 shares that they can issue via placing. At the current SP minus discount of 10%, so say 0.115p that gives them ~ £1.42 million that thy could raise if they did so right now.

A future open offer and using up the remaining allowance of the 4 BILLION shares, is not going to deliver much, look at the most recent effort, where the uptake at 0.18p was pretty terrible with folks still holding those looking at a 28% paper loss.

Yes, but half of the allowance is limited to "open offer" to PI's, and how did the recent effort with the open offer go? Do you think there are enough mugs that would buy through an open offer.