Member Info for Cygnus7

I wish people would not respond to FTF, it only encourages him.

He's probably lonely and this is the only way he can interact with other people.
Cygnus

James,
You're right in that the option that shows profitability is based on £5/lb, when copper is below that price. But it is not unreasonable to assume that that line in the sand will soon be passed.

>> Does anybody know where the 162 mt figure comes from?

I assume it is based n a 0.15% cut-off rather than 0.3% for the 71mt.

Thanks Steve, that makes sense.

yes Steve,
I think you have nailed it.
Currently the resource as it stands is just about justifiable. If any of the phase 1 or 2 drilling campaigns adds anything to the resource then things look rosy. I think we have passed that hurdle !

Does anybody know where the 162 mt figure comes from? I would have thought they'd have used the 71 mt figure as that seems to be what they are currently basing their sums on.

No mention of when the second part of the IP survey is to begin.

Cygnus

Screen,
Haven't a clue. I was lucky in that I loaded up for the African assets before the Aussie one came onto the horizon so was thinking I'd fluked it. I'm still not only just underwater but like you can't see what the problem is. If it was common knowledge I think a troll would have been on this site massaging his enormous ego.
My only thoughts are that after the first very long drill punters thought we were going to get record breaking grades and that they would continue coming. Quite honestly, after the IP results I think most of the phase 1 drill holes were in hindsight, too far north. Once the second IP results are in and phase 2 starts , I think we'll see a rebuilding of the sp as the grades confirm a valuable asset.

Back in the happy days a few months ago I did some sums to estimate the ore resource at BR. I thought I'd do the same again based on the IP survey of the currently known resource. If anybody wants to question my figures then please do but my figures are currently based on the following assumptions.
The length of the resource is 2.5 km long
The width is approx 1.5 km wide
The depth is approx 500 m deep.
The density is 2.7 T per cubic meter
The grade will vary widely through the resource so a conservative figure needs to be taken for this factor and I have chosen as 0.2%
As the resource is not a rectangular box I have rounded off the edges by multiplying the size of the resource by 0.6
This gives an overall ore resource of 3 billion T and a Cu resource of 6 million T which, when I last checked, is a tad more than the 2 million required by AA.
My only reservation is that on average, when considering that there will be barren patches within the resource, the grade used (0.2%) may be a tad high. However, although the resource appears to be petering out to the north it is still going strong to the south and this has not been included in my sums. So, who knows how high the Cu content may eventually reach.
Please substitute your own figures and let me/ us know what you come up with.
Cygnus

I'm expecting the hole 5 & 6 results to be mediocre but I think in total they will add a very useful volume (tonnage) to the resource. Of more interest will be the second phase. From the IP results I think the real value of Racecourse will be to the south of the present drill activity and it's here that I expect most of the activity to take place. So, first up will be the additional IP results from this area followed by the drill results which if the IP results are representative of the ore quality, then excitement will be re-ignited.
IMHO
Cygnus

So, to summerise:
The grades deep down where it's difficult to mine are lower than hoped but the IP survey has outlined large areas of near surface new targets for which we have good funding to drill. Reason to sell presumably.... (sarcasm)

CB had been talking about drilling deeper but following the recent results I'm assuming he will concentrate on the new areas identified by the IP work and possibly Footrot. Certainly drilling shallower would allow more holes to be drilled for the same cash outlay.

It appears that twice as much cash (on shares) has been spent this morning as has sold yet the sp is still down 6% !

Do You mean 4.6?

Steve,
Makes perfect sense. This is exactly what I mean about the other party, AA in your suggestion, deciding on the rules of the NDA. Should be a cause for people tom pile in.

Surely it's down to the other party as to what's included in the NDA ?

>>Because most negotiations will involve an NDA.
This is why I believe their are talks going on behind the scenes. To hold onto bad news would merely antagonise people so I don't believe that's the reason for no news (plus all the previous good news).
In a sane world the lack news in this situation should be a reason to buy: I'm just maxed out !
Cygnus

I also am nearing my average but I find it difficult to imagine that from everything we have heard and has been reported that Racecourse is not a viable prospect. The very fact that CB has not even mentioned the assay results in recent RNSs suggests to me that there is a deal being discussed behind the scenes. The only thing that worries me is that that smacks of self delusion and wishful thinking. The hard facts suggest a deal is on - but I've have had too many 'sure fire' shares in the past that come to nothing to be comfortable. I will be holding but even at these low prices I am now too over-committed to invest any more. I will sit and wait.
Cygnus

Steve,
The big move you mentioned was clearly initiated by the institutional purchase of a large number of shares. That created momentum upon which all the 'momentum buyers' jumped onboard. Once that momentum had burned out they jumped ship and here we are. The company has better prospects now than then but it doesn't have momentum - yet. Just keep investing in value and eventually you'll get the return you deserve....

On the basic LSE level it appears that almost 10 times more shares have been purchased than sold yet only a minimal increase in the sp.

CE,
Even the technical and financial analysis is a nudge to AA saying, 'OK, this is how you do it and what it will cost'. The references to open pit are likewise hints that it will not cost as much as AA may have previously thought.