Member Info for Cygnus7

Howezap, personally I'd prefer to explore the big southern anomalies than spend time infilling. Get an idea of the scale of the beast. If AA are not willing to pay a reasonable % of the resource at low JORC confidence levels then we can continue drilling and offer to other companies while building the JORC confidence level.

BiggL,
I'm not really the one to ask but looking at the recently released map I'd say it was infill but I believe it was designed to hit the crown and therefore it should be rich pickings.

I have previously gone through my calculations for the value of BushRanger but did not work through to the value per share as I did not want to be accused of ramping. However, as the sp seems determined not to reflect reality I thought I would go through my numbers explaining my estimates of the important inputs. Others can use their own numbers. Note, I am not a geologist but I have a science background so hopefully I my figures will be sound !

First, one needs to estimate the volume of the resource. As it sits on the ground, using a viewpoint from directly overhead I am using the following dimensions: Length = 3000 m, width = 500 m. Now the depth is a bit more difficult because one has to estimate the average depth before mineralisation begins and the sensible depth that can be mined. Despite recent shallow results I'm going to assume that the resource begins at 200 m and ends at 500 m giving pay dirt of 300 m. To calculate the volume one simply multiplies those numbers giving 450 M cubic meters. Clearly if you disagree with my numbers simply plug your own in. Now the generally accepted density of this type of rock is 2.7 tones per cubic meter giving a resource mass of about 1.2 B tonnes.
Now the resource is clearly not a sharp edged box. So, if one assumes that the pit required is something like an up-side down doblerone bar then one amount of rock within that could be found by dividing by multiplying by 0.5 but in reality the pit would not have asharp crease at the bottom and would to some extend be flat bottomed so its far more realistic to assume that you can multiply by 0.6 giving a resource of approx 730 M tons.
Next one has to consider the average grade and this is difficult as the grade obviously varies across the resource and one needs to include the poor areas as well as the good. But, the last assay results do suggest that there are some really nice zones and consequently I'm going to use the figure of 0.3% as the average grade. The figure could well be higher, especially with the south prospects but I'll 0.3%. Doing this gives 2.2 MT which gets us safely over the 2M mark and I do think I've been very conservative so good news so far. Next we need a figure for the price of copper and I'll use $9000 per Ton. Somebody previously said I should not use such a high figure but at this time I'm merely trying to find the inherent value of the resource. Doing so gives a resource value at current prices of ~ $20 B. Converting to £ gives £14.6 B. Now we get to the thorny subject of what a mining company would pay for that resource which depends on the density of drill holes. If we assume a figure of 3% then the value to XTR would be around £440M. Assuming there are a billion shares in circulation then the share price if fully valued would be 44p. Ignoring Africa and Footrot.
Please feel free to criticise or use your own figures but I do think I've been conservative.

Art : 10:08

In addition to the copper and gold there are also useful amounts of silver. It all helps to sweeten the pot.

Ben, your points are the reason I originally started the Twist of fate theme. Bushranger is made for proving up and selling on, not for developing which would be too expensive and take too long. Hence I was wondering if the cash from BR would be used in Africa because the company would then have the funds to develop its own exploration results.

In a strange twist of fate, if both Bushranger and Eureka come to fruition, I could image Bushranger being proven up and sold and the cash being used to develop the African assets with Xtract evolving into a miner, not just an explorer.

On another matter, it is so annoying to see the sp rise through the day then have the day-traders cash out with their £30 beer money at the end of the day. So, many simply sell into any rise that's created. Still, these are such exciting times with RNSs delivering good news on such a frequent basis. This company is becoming like a coiled string and eventually something will have to give. GL ay LTH.

If the assay results are anything respectable when they arrive I think we will see this company get a deserved re-rating and most, if not all shareholder will be in the green. We still have another drill result to come in the near future - looking forward to that. Plus, if the first lorryload of ore is going to leave Eureka next week then I would expect that to warrant another good RNS. Difficult to ignore all the good news.

10:35
And it makes the sums so much easier ! Lol.....

Good luck to you Isomer, Last week I made my final purchase bring my total to 1 million shares. As time passes I become increasingly confident. If Eureka is an IOCG feature then it could be as valuable at Racecourse effectively doubling the eventual share price. But still the market doesn't get it. A placing on the Aussie market would shake things up a tad.

16:48
O.K, thanks Iceberg, think I just mis-read your intentions while reading your message.

However, the prospect of an IOCG certainly is exciting news.

Iceberg, correct me if I'm wrong but Eureka isn't a porphyry so I was expecting higher grades. But you are talking about it as if it is. Am I confused ?

So, sudden positive jump in SP at 11:00 and that is reflected by a purchase of about £420. Go figure.... This is why I ignore the sum of sells and buys.
Anyway, what I really came on to say was that despite CBs predictions of when the first assays would arrive I'm going to assume early October. I think it's unlikely that the back-log of work that delayed the phase 1 results is going to have cleared already so best to build some delay in and be pleasantly surprised if the results are early.

I never trust the sells & buys ledger. It never seems to relate to the SP movement.

Just wondering if we may get caught in a position where we need to conduct a lot more drilling to get to a good JORC standard and that if that is not achieved then the % of the net value (as specified by an independent expert) of the resource to a third party would be lower than we, as shareholders would expect.
In this regard, as the resource gets larger it's becoming more expensive to prove it up to the required standard. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this as it's currently my only concern - effectively dilution due to the need to continue drilling. Yes, Africa should help but have not seen anything yet.

Eeey upp, somebody'd just sold £2.70.
Things are moving again.....

Wow, No RNS, no purchases, no sales, no messages.

The calm before the storm ?

Cygnus

Ben H just doesn't want to be accused of ramping....

To think that we were all expecting an RNS to drop first thing Monday morning. Of course, there may have been a problem of some sort but even that would not have stopped the reporting of the second drill. I do think these southern anomalies may well be the key to this resource so very much waiting with baited breath.

With two drills they may well have finished with one but are waiting for the second to finish. Consequently I think they have found something interesting with at least one drill. If not they would have stopped drilling and reported the result. The delay is both intriguing and I believe lucrative !

Maybe, but I don't think they would test the resource far beyond the region that shows good mineralization. In the past they have drilled 20 or 30 meters further. In any case, the nearer the surface the more attractive the copper so it's a matter of diminishing returns even if mineralization is present at depth.