Member Info for cyberduck

Sain, it would be nice to have a better knowledge of the sector. It's very hard to come in and try and work out what's been happening without all the data at your fingertips. Even this wouldn't compensate for the experience of having been involved through all the history. Looking at TEF's share price, the highest appears to be in May 2015 when the historical P/E ratio must have been about 18. It's now about 11. Brokers are estimating EPS of around 47p and 56p for 2018 and 2019. Looking at Stictly's estimates from June, he suggests 48p and 60p. If I wasn't scared of being "all in" to one particular sector and one particular country I'd be buying more TEF for the long term. Currently happy to hold them but am also buying into StrictlyBricks' methodology so may switch out of some of them on relative value discrepancies with other companies in the Sector in an attempt to better the return from TEF. I imagine with TEF's recent relative share performance to RDW, a switch out of RDW to TEF might be on the horizon, especially if RDW continues to rise ahead of the results and TEF continues to drift lower prior to the announcement on 5th September (from memory).

http://www.thebusinessdesk.com/eastmidlands/news/2005659-online-estate-agency-east-mids-recruitment-drive

>The solid growth potential to double volume at the same margins every 4 to 6 years for the next 20 years Is simply not priced in. Is this not because of a long term overly negative view of the sector as a whole? I have been managing my own investments now for over 30 years and I was astonished recently to see that BWY have an average ROE of 16.2% per year (courtesy of StrictlyBricks) measured over a 19 year period. I don't know what their p/e ratio has been over this period but it's currently 9.32. Whilst I'd love this negative view of the Sector to change, or even just TEF's, I'm not sure it's going to happen. I think we'll just have to be happy with a low PE ratio but if eps grows at 15% a year then it stands to reason that the SP will too.

Interesting article on Jefferies who have repeatedly criticised PurpleBricks whenever consulted. Their clients include Countrywide, LSL and ZPG https://www.aimgroup.com/2017/08/23/in-the-uk-transparency-and-bias-affect-estate-agency-disruption/ "Jefferies issued twenty separate “buy” recommendations for its corporate clients, spanning over 2,000 days, while issuing none for their direct competitors. It issued five separate “sell / underperform” recommendations that spanned 700 days for direct competitors of its corporate clients. Meanwhile, the sustained positive stock recommendations for Countrywide and LSL corresponded with massive underperformance (a 71 percent and 52 percent drop in stock price), while the negative stock recommendations for Rightmove and Purplebricks corresponded with a big gain in stock price (60 percent and 88 percent respectively). Investors would have lost a lot of money if they had heeded Jefferies’ advice."

>#justsaying Just pulling out of thin air more like. I should qualify my statement in that it's a small sample of 200 listings that I'm looking at.

>this leaky leaky company lose 60% of vendors Not according to my research. I'm seeing 69% completion by PurpleBricks (yes PurpleBricks!) on national listings dating back to January to March of last year. Where are you getting your figures from? Who are these people in the know and where have they published their findings? I know GetAgent have looked at a sample of 500 properties and they say 58% completion by PurpleBricks.

I haven't lost faith in TEF's management and still like it that they're small compared to the likes of RDW, CRST, BWY & PSN. The fact that Strictly has them currently labeled as good value is also reassuring. So two different methodologies saying the same thing can't be bad for somebody like me with little specific knowledge of the sector.

"The market remains confident. Customer interest in our developments remains strong with encouraging levels of interest through both our websites and our sales outlets as we trade through the quieter summer weeks" Sounds very promising for the sector. As an investor in property I do tend to follow the mood of people and to be honest locally (Wirral, North West England) people are probably only a year into the "feeling better" part of the cycle. The supply of property is still on the low side but I sense it's starting to creep up. The average property is selling very quickly. Of course I don't know how this translates nationally but I'm guessing everywhere apart from London must be in a similar stage of the boom & bust cycle that we don't appear to be able to avoid. London has its own dynamics and it does tend to affect the market as a whole. The point I'm making is that I don't feel as though, nationally speaking, we're at the top of the market. I'm just picking up on what Sain said earlier to see what others think of my theory and also hope that Sain explains his thoughts. I know he mentioned signs of overheating a month or so back. I hold nearly as many Redrow as TEF now and feel quite confident about their prospects for a few years yet. Of course you never know for sure what's around the corner.

Resipsa, my comment wasn't really aimed at you in particular. It's just my recommendation to anybody who doesn't know a good Estate Agent who will put the client first. I keep hearing about them but I've yet to find one. For the properties that I've sold the offer has been put to me by the Agent and I've never been told whether I should hold out for a better offer or not. I keep hearing that a traditional Agent will more than earn their commission by getting you a better deal but that's not the feeling I get. With none of my sales have they seemed certain about what to do and I have always felt that they want you to accept the offer or are frightened of offering advice in case it falls through after taking that advice.

With PurpleBricks you know who's viewed your property and offers don't go missing. Best to get valuations from different Agents and value the property yourself using Rightmove Price Comparison Report, Zoopla and the HPI for your area. Agents are just looking to get your property on their books.

>They are no doubt in the process of deciding when to launch a further phase here soon and at City North too .More diffcult decision for Liberty than City North I think . TEF although mindful of capital being invested in these developments unsold are under no pressure to obtain early deposits Is it not a concern that TEF are now offering to pay stamp duty and holding on to properties because of a lack of demand? It was only a couple of months ago that TEF were saying demand greatly exceeded supply and that this was the basis of the business model.

I've sold 5 properties (mum's, dad's, 2 investment and my first home) and probably seen 12 different Agents and not one of them has ever looked in the loft or come back for a second visit. It's pretty much pot luck in my eyes because they can all talk the talk. Most people probably think like that so if somebody is looking for higher fees than somebody else then they should be able to demonstrate superior performance over a period of time. The fact they are not transparent about their fees says a lot to me. Why should somebody with a £500,000 property pay twice as much as a £250,000 property? Is there really twice as much work?

>Isnt the most important thing here to sell your houseand achieve a price in excess of expectations and if the agent has proved his worth earn 1, 2 or 5% Yes it is but how do you know which agent is going to do that for you? If they have to publish their fees then they have to also give you good reason for going with them rather than somebody cheaper. If nobody can give you a good reason for going with them then just go with the cheapest. So the starting point for comparison is publishing of the fees. The rest will have to follow.

Sounds like your Friend went against the Client's wishes. He could have been sued if the buyer pulled out and the seller subsequently sold and could have demonstrated a loss because of the Agents behaviour. I'm sure there are all sorts of examples of agents getting good prices. I've sold several properties but have never had any such level of service. Being a cynic, I would imagine the amount of effort put in relates to the Agent's own potential gain, so the more expensive the property the more effort they put in. So like I say, by all means promote yourself but advertise your standard commission and any other the options available to the seller. I can't see any argument for all the secrecy other than to benefit the agent. Typically once they have their foot in the door they stand a good chance of getting the instruction.

It doesn't take much to explain how the standard fee varies. I'm sure it's not rocket science. My gut feeling is they don't want transparency in order to prevent competition on prices. If they think they offer a superior service then they can make these claims and substantiate it with facts. Whilst they're explaining how they set their commission rates they may also try and explain why somebody with a £500,000 property pays twice as much as a £250,000 property.

Trading Srandards should make Estate Agents publish their normal commission rate and whether it is negotiable. They should publish the standard length of contract and whether it is a rolling contract. Never mind that the public can't compare, these things are actually not made clear enough (in my opinion) when you sign up with the Agent. Traditional Agents complain (to the ASA) about companies like PurpleBricks using commission figure from surveys & Which? but hide their commission rates from potential customers. Even when I had valuations from a few local Agents the commission rate was only mentioned by one of them and that was because I asked. When this was being discussed on the PropertyIndustryEye site one Agent said he didn't want to publish his rates because his competitors would undercut him :) Trading Standards need to open up the High Street.

>Terrace, something like that isn’t really on my radar so I don’t have a view on it. What I am going by is the combination of: strictly, do you not take the type of factor that terrace points out into account when estimating future ROE?

Well Hardman estimated £61.5M PAT for 2022 and that didn't include anything from the USA. They also estimated -£5.5M PAT for 2017 which was pretty much spot on. So factor in the USA and we have a delay in Group Priofits because the USA, if it follows the UK, will take several years to move into profit. But then (if and when) it does you would expect the PAT to be way in excess of what the UK and Oz produce. So is it on the horizon? It's a matter of opinion. Personally I think it's unlikely but not out of the question.

Sain, I agree. I think if I had to say one way or another then I'd have to say failure is more likely than success in the U.S but if PB are a success then you are looking at a market that is 5 times bigger than here with average commissions 6%. So huge potential even with a small market share. Having dealt with quite a few U.S. citizens I also believe they are more conservative than we are. Admittedly I'm dealing with older people. Everybody also seems to have so much money too. I could be wrong because I'm no expert but culture for me is another potential issue. I certainly can't fault PB for giving it a try though and if it fails then they can withdraw back to the U.K/Oz and look to expand elsewhere if they can attract more funding.

It doesn't look that way to me. Just another way to advertise properties other than Zillow & Trulia. No reason to think PB would be excluded.