Member Info for cyberduck

A very impressive number of instructions over the last 24 hours. My adjusted figures (still a proxy) give 255 on a day when the number of instructions for the market were below recent levels. The results were slightly better than I expected. Still lots of questions to be answered. A little concerned over marketing costs which increased above estimates. LPE growth is way ahead of estimates and I don't really see this as positive because revenue didn't increase proportionally and it means they are closer to saturation so future estimates look less likely. I'm also concerned about data being published in regard to sales conversions. I know that analyst Jefferies has been collecting this data and promised to release figures for the major estate agents. GetAgent wrote to me recently claiming a 60% conversion rate. Whether publication and media coverage would put the public off is not clear to me though.

It's very hard to guess how the results will be met but we did have the trading update "Trading in the UK has been strong, with year-on-year instruction growth in the second half of the financial year up 83%. As a result the UK business is expected to record an adjusted EBITDA profit for the full year, building on the UK's £0.3m reported adjusted EBITDA in the first half." Also the first half results created £0.3m EBITDA profit from an increase of 108% on instructions from the same period. So unlikely to be any big surprises. A small profit for the full year from the UK unless they have done well from other income sources (data sales?) and increased the average revenue per customer and kept advertising costs at roughly the same level. Oz will be loss making by about £6M if my memory serves me right (adjusted from estimates because of better sales than estimated)

Am I missing something? Headline: "Revealed: how TrustPilot’s review verification system really works" Article: "several traditional agents weighed in to demand the review site clarify how their ratings management process works, but largely to no avail"

Terrace, I think some investors are looking years ahead and are prepared to speculate. Others, as mentioned by IP3LY, are probably jumping on the gravy train or perhaps even trading the shares on a short term basis. I own shares in a company that owns the rights to any scientific breakthroughs from research carried out at top universities. Pure speculation that something will come of the research. Woodford likes these types of companies, hence his involvement with PB. He spreads his risk. How much is a share that might be worth £20 or zero in 3 years worth?

Zoopla showing 269 newly added listings in the last 24 hours. Closer scrutiny shows that 31 of these are fall-throughs or ones coming back from a marketing break. These 31 listings are labeled as newly added by Zoopla and it's the same for other agents' properties so in my eyes this isn't smoke & mirrors. Rightmove wouldn't list these as newly added but it's harder to work out the figures through RM. 238 listings was 3.1% of the new listings yesterday. Looking back to 8th February my figure was 167 and 2.1%. So growth of about 50% in market share in 4 months. Still a long way to go to reach the market share needed for good profits. Hardman estimated the shares would be worth £4 based on the UK & Oz markets if they could achieve 7% market share in the UK with Oz lagging behind. Now we have the U.S at 5 times the market size of the UK and higher commissions. Highly speculative but if the UK, USA & Oz reach those market shares then imagine what the share price would be. Then there is the rest of the world and why stop at 7% market share? Hardman were estimating a possible 10%. My main concerns are advertising costs - are they showing growth at a cost of higher advertising which would invalidate Harman's analysis. Also, the number of LPE's are way ahead of Hardman's estimates for this stage of the development so are LPE's less effective than Harman estimated or is it just market conditions? Also LPE growth can only go so far. We must be closer to saturation point than Hardman estimated? So closer to a threshold which could now be less than the 7% estimated?

Sain, I haven't really been impressed by Robert May's analysis of the online sector. I get the feeling he doesn't know much about investors and investing in companies/shares like most who post comments on PIE. They usually harp back with glee to the failure to live up to projections made in old prospectuses but fail to mention that these statements would have been accompanied by a big section on risk of investing. Reasons why the projections might not materialise. Some of the "expert" commentators even criticise PB for not paying dividends which shows how much they actually know. I really don't think anybody who bought PB shares at startup can be dissapointed. Robert May needs to look more at recent trends, for example what has been happening with PB since January. Clearly it's just a start and it all could come tumbling down but if you listen to them on PIE, especially Robert May and Chris Wood you'd think that PB had been a complete failure. Also, just because Easy have used all the money they have raised with very little sales so far they have according to the company been concentrating on development of a platform which they say is superior to others and capable of being rolled out internationally. I haven't ruled them out as one of the major players in the years to come. They already have a well known brand and it might just be a matter of throwing money at marketing which seems to be what has set PB apart from the rest up to now. Still early days.

I'm getting calls all the time. The trouble is you don't know if they're any good or not. One Agent sends a list of recent properties sold out but I imagine they do this for all agents once the property has been on the market for a couple of months. I haven't checked the list though but I think they might be being a little flexible in regard to the term 'recent'.

I agree. The so-called good agents need to put their money where their mouth is. I was reading that the best agents achieve 100+ percent of the asking price but is it that they just list at a lower price than another agent would? It's impossible to tie down the variables when comparing all this data and trying to decide who the best agents are. If you get a bunch of agents to value your property they're usually trying to outbid each other in terms of the value of your home so it would be very hard for anybody to beat the highest bid. Award winning (2013 I think :) agent Chris Wood's philosophy is to get a good price quickly for his customers. It looks like he's struggling to compete for listings with his other high street agents so perhaps he values lower than them? Perhaps he's more interested in winning another award which I believe is heavily based on the percentage of listing price achieved and speed of sale.

It says quite a lot about the commissions being charged if they can afford to drop them by £850. Even better for PB. Give PB a try and save if you sell and break even if you don't. Everybody should now try PB first :)

>the LPE has total control over all the marketing. Are you sure? I know I can change the price and take the property off the market. I know also that once the property is taken off the market it gets put back on automatically at the end of the time period with the maximum break being 14 weeks (from memory). Like I say, I'm not sure that the property goes back on the market automatically after the sale falls through but I do know the offer can be withdrawn via the platform. As for LPE's not wanting their listings to sell, that's a ridiculous argument which shows the lack of business sense of the people making the claim. As an LPE you need 'Sold' signs otherwise the game will soon be up. My sale has just fallen through after the survey and the LPE is trying to resurrect the deal and he says if that if it's not possible he'll come around and go through the survey report with me.

True, that sort of thing is perhaps what you are likely to get more of with PB. A lot of things are automated and I know that the buyer can remove their offer using the online platform but whether the listing go's live again automatically I'm not sure. If it did you would expect the LPE to be notified at least. As a PB customer you need to be actively involved. I know I am and I'd be exactly the same if I used an Estate Agent after my experiences over the years.

Milly, I've got a book here called "The Law of Estate Agency". Some of the cases brought against estate agents over the years are mind boggling. Why do you think we have an Act of Parliament (Estate Agents Act 1979) to specifically protect us from Estate Agents? Why do you think that trading standards have their own department just for Estate Agents? The figures in Zoopla are their own responsibility. I've just checked the first 100 results in Zoopla for the country as a whole and 6 of them that are labeled "just added" are not. I've looked at one of them in more detail and I can find 3 separate listings for it in Rightmove (all removed by same agent). Added to RM on 24/3/16, then added on 15/7/16 and then again on 29/9/16.

>Probably but it appears as first listed which then misleads the public and distorts the stats You see this with Zoopla. Fallen through sales & returns after a market break are listed by Zoopla as "just added". This is Zoopla's definition not PB's and if it affects Zoopla's stats then that's something they should address. Zoopla have been informed many times about this but don't seem to be bothered.

>Why are the ceos selling millions of pounds worth of shares then ? Sounds like you expect company directors to hold onto their shares until they die. Not really much point in investing in the first place if you just want to sit on the share certificates. Directors selling shares in the market can be a warning sign but the PB sales were placings to institutions. Prior to that they had raised the $50m for the USA trial and that had been oversubscribed.

milly, It's fairly simple. If you sell with PB you save money but if you don't you lose money. On average you save money. Let's say that PB sell 50% of properties they list. If I said to you, flip a coin and if it's heads I'll give you £30 but if it's tails you give me £10 would you do it? It's the same when choosing PB for an average priced property except bigger numbers. Lose £1000 or gain £3000. If you are talking about above average priced properties it becomes even more of a 'no brainer'. With traditional agents those that sell are paying for all the marketing costs of those that don't sell. Why should you pay more for the same service if your property is worth more? Fixed fee or commission on sale. Just different models with winners and losers. On average PB's is the better one for consumers.

>in a lot of cases purplebricks makes the customer LOSE money milly, I don't think the Government or the Courts will look at the worst case scenario like Estate Agents like to do. They will look at the overall situation.and the savings being made by the consumer on average. This is what Estate Agents would like to stop so they can protect their own businesses.

So when you say "All this talk of rightmove and zoopla dropping purplebricks" it's pure speculation or wishful thinking by desperate estate agents rather than something that's come from RM or Zoopla? If one of RM & Zoopla bans PB it doesn't mean the other will. It wouldn't surprise me if there was some law that would stop such anti-competitive behaviour. I'm not sure about that but when businesses try and get together and stop consumers saving money the Courts tend to take a dim view of it. This is what happens when Estate Agents get together in secret and agree not to compete on commission rates.

You are an Estate Agent aren't you milly? What's your source? There's nothing on PropertyIndustryEye's website and they like to write about PB even if it's just somebody's opinion. Usually a couple of stories a day. One positive one negative. For some reason Estate Agents love to comment on these articles yet you can have an article on some dodgy behaviour by other Estate Agents and nobody says a thing.

Perhaps not everybody. There was one guy a while back who said the stock was overbought and he'd sold short at about £3.50 from memory. He said he expected it to go down to £2.50 but would probably cash in if it reached £2.60. I remember the share going as low as £2.60 intraday at one point so perhaps he took maximum profits before it went back up. It was a while before it got back up to £3.50 so he had plenty of other opportunities to take profits as the price rose. The company is pretty much breaking even in the UK and making a loss in Australia. Even if they go onto make a healthy profit in the UK it doesn't mean they will do so in Australia and the USA.

The points all sound reasonable to some extent. If an Agent can earn much more on a commission basis then why join PB she asks? She speculates that an agent who joins PB can't make it out there on their own. Well sometimes there are just too many Agents. If somebody already has a foothold and a good reputation then it's very likely that their success will continue. But that doesn't mean there aren't plenty of other good agents out there who don't have the opportunities but see PB's advertising Budget as a way to get them in front of potential clients. Another point she makes about it being bad for seller & buyer to directly communicate. I disagree. I've been involved in the negotiation by passing on messages process several times over the years and I think it encourages people to be too greedy & aggressive in their negotiations. The fact that you can carry this communication on via message rather than face to face gives you scope to explain your reasoning but still maintain a distance so you aren't pressured by a dominant negotiator.