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Didn't TEF say recently that they want to preserve their AIM status because of the inheritance tax advantages?

Sain, further to the point about the market not liking TEF.... I think it's down to the lumpiness of their profits. 2020 being flat would be a real turn-off for those of us who like to see year on year earnings growth. So 2021 looks like a good year but if they are prone to flat years then how confident can you be about 2022 and 2023?

Thanks Strictly, I haven't received anything though.

Sain, there is no doubt that TEF's deal with GreyStar is huge. I reckon £50M of 2021 profit once it's been agreed after planning permission is obtained. I'm looking shorter term though. We've known about GreyStar for months and it's done nothing for the share price. There's something the market don't like about TEF and I get the feeling that if the sector is struggling in terms of share price performance then so will TEF.

Terrace, Steve Morgan may be moving to a non-executive role but I'm sure he'll still be keeping an eye on things as he has a major investment still. "It is my intention to continue to focus with the board on the strategic development of the business and I will retain my keen involvement with the product and key important projects." I'm always cautious but I'm not panicking over somebody who wants to ease back on the workload at his age. I'm off to try and work out some historic p/e's for RDW.

>Looks like the market is calling an end to the relentless rise in SPs Redrow on a p/e of 8.26 and have given guidance of 10% plus growth of earnings for the next 3 years. Complete madness if people are selling. I can remember reading the Zulu Principal by Jim Slater and these were the needles in the haystack that everybody who read the book were looking for :) The property market had only just started warming up by us. I've seen before that London puts a damper on everything but my feeling about local conditions is that people have been putting off the decision to move houses for too long and are looking to move now.

See http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/is-he-out-fund-manager-neil-woodford-chops-back-hard-on-purplebricks-investment/ PIE might also initially have been fooled if you look at the url :)

Reading a few articles over the last couple of days I sense some doom & gloom over the property market. Yet it was only last week when Redrow commented on current trading and outlook : "Redrow began the current financial year with a record order book of £1.1bn (including our Croydon Joint Venture), up 14% on last year. Sales in the first 9 weeks are very encouraging and up 8% on a strong comparator last year. Our strategy of continued growth for the business is on track and I am confident this will be another year of significant progress for the business." Not only that but also giving guidance of 95p EPS for 2020 with a dividend payment of 32p. Let's hope TEF can give a positive trading update in early October for H1 to the end of September. 2017 H1 had EPS of 9.9p (36.8p for the full year) so with estimated EPS for the full year of around 47p hopefully we see a similar split with 12.5p of earnings when the interim results are announced at the end of November. An increase of 26%.

>Can anyone explain what benefits might arise that might outweigh the endless list of negatives? Not having to do what Europe tells us to do might outweigh the negatives. It's impossible to say with any certainty though. Does anybody who pays more attention to me know when the uncertainty will end? I would imagine the City are putting extreme pressure on the Government to get a move on.

Tried the agentlocator service with my postcode (north west england) and they came up with "MarkBeaumont.com are your local property experts, who are based in your area and know your area." who are based in Lewisham in London. Did Estate Agent Today not even try the service?

Agents now beating PB's prices but not charging all their customers the same price https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/9/service-lists-high-street-agents-that-are-purplebricks-price-beaters?source=newsticker >You always follow your leader and the top guys are selling like mad! Selling like mad? Always follow the leader? When did you buy your shares and at what price?

>Fair enough use Bricks if you are happy with thee service and the local expert but dont choose the sale of your most important asset on the strength of the fee alone I don't see much else you can base it on. When we have somebody like goodbyeZPLA who boasts a 91 percent conversion rate he won't even identify himself. Will Estate Agents allow you access to their historical records so you can see not only their conversion rate but also the prices they listed and sold at, including timescales? I very much doubt it so it's difficult to judge. If a property hasn't sold I'd want to look at the reasons before assuming it's necessarily an issue with the Agent. I also don't doubt that some LPEs are listing at unrealistic prices. A pretty common practice among Agents in general. I was reading the other day about Agents who keep properties exclusively for buyers who see their mortgage broker http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/whistleblower-claims-buyers-who-go-with-agents-financial-and-conveyancing-services-are-given-1000/ A big firm by the looks of it.

goodbyeZPLA, If you can demonstrate a 25% better conversion rate than the average Estate Agent then you might get yourself some business by naming your agency. Why would it be madness? Rightmove claim that 15% of SSTC properties get relisted with them. So, over 15% of sales fall through if you consider that some people will not relist after the sale falls through. This article from 2015 suggests 36% fall through http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/uk-home-sales-failures/

Sain, this is a risk you take when you try and save yourself thousands of pounds in commission. One thing you can say about PB is that they aren't overcharging. With around 40,000 customers last year and close to break-even you are getting what you pay for. I took a look at a company called Arun Estate Agencies Limited's filed accounts for the year to the end of September 2016. £17M profit before tax on turnover of £67M (approx). A fine profit being made from those that sell and sellers also paying for all the marketing expenses of time wasters who don't pay anything. I'm not sure if this is the same "Arun" who is offering to discount PB's fee but if they can afford to offer £850 off their normal commission then you have to wonder if you're normally getting value for money as a consumer. All other things being equal of course.

Strictly, yes I completely get that fundamentals are not always in line with share prices but it is the risk to the share price over whatever timescale you are investing for that is paramount. So you could argue that TEF are de-risking because they have to, whereas with the bigger builders, they don't. Not really something to TEF's credit so perhaps it's just long term growth prospects that should be the deciding factor?

Steph, Please bear in mind that I have no history behind me in this sector. I was just looking back at TEF's share price from July 2005 to June 2007 it dropped from 420p to 20p. RDW dropped from 543 to 100 (December 2006 to June 2008). I'm wondering how risk free TEF are in reality. If there's some global crisis will investors really think "we're OK with TEF they're guaranteed payment for the current developments when they complete?". I'm not sure sentiment would actually be much different than for the other builders and it's supply and demand that governs share prices.

goodbyeZPLA, I follow discussion on propertyindustryeye.com and one of the frequent claims is that PB have a low conversion rate. The only number I've seen backed up by any proper analysis is 57% (from memory) from a company called GetAgent who say they tracked a sample of 500 PB listings over a long period (a year I think). I think the average Estate Agent figure was something like 65% so your 90% is extremely unusual wouldn't you say? Could you disclose the name of your Agency so that I can verify your claims. I was reading the other day that Arun Estates will discount the PB fee if you switch to them so the obvious strategy for consumers is to try PB and if you can't sell at £850 then switch to an Agent who will deduct the £850 from their fee. I have personally tracked a small sample of PB listings from January to April last year and the completion rate I have seen is 69%.

I wonder what effect TEF's 3 year development cycle has on their ROE and earnings figures. Really with TEF the return is on equity used 3 years prior, so ROE if you used EPS against shareholder funds from 3 years prior it would make the ROE figure higher. Also, with a deal like the one with Greystar the ROE is almost infinite because so little equity is used. Around £50M 2021 profit. That by itself is close to the 2020 profit forecast and presumably they will get some return in 2021 from other projects that use the current shareholder funds.

Terrace, are you sure he holds PB in the fund they're talking about? I know he has another fund with "patience" in the title. He holds lots of small "high risk" companies in this fund with no profits to date.

Sain, you're asking the wrong person :) Have there been any other takeovers in the sector that you could look to for some idea?