Member Info for cyan2

Henry; For the record; I have NEVER shorted in my life and no-one is paying me to write.
For my sins I hold a substantial number of these shares and in January all was looking odds on for sanction at YE 2020 as intimated in the HOT with NAVITAS.

A horrendous 'black swan' event has changed everything in the world and the risk SEALION never going ahead is something to ponder even more seriously now.

Good night all

Good evening Godders99
You wrote;
"Btw if rpoodle says the situation is dire then you really know it's dire. We are going under"

I agree that the financial situation RKH now finds itself in is pretty poor. However; subsequent to the annual report rpoodle was looking at ; a later RNS was published that offered RKH ADDITIONAL loan support fro 1.3.2020 to cover future pre-sanction costs.
RKH can not survive to first oil in best case scenario; mid 2025 now (based on DURRANTS optimistic additional 6-12 months delay) ; WITHOUT a significant cash injection.
Remember that EDISON state their YE 2021 prediction is just $5.346m. With RKH spending circa $4m pa on admin and other costs; you can see they will run out of cash before best case first oil.
RKH MUST get a decent arbitration award; not less than $20m imo will do.
Alternative is to beg a direct loan from PMO; sell more of RKH's SEALION interest, or raise funds by an equity issue; more shares.
The arbitration is vital.

Henry; Would you like to discuss Rockhopper or your unsubstantiated conspiracy theories all the time?

Lets consider these numbers from RKH ; published on 8th April ;

"Cash resources of US$21.9 million as at 1 April 2020"

Buried way down in the results RNS is this shocker;

"Falkland Islands spend of US$19.3 million relates primarily to pre-development activities on Sea Lion. Following signature of a Heads of Terms in January 2020, Rockhopper's share of pre-sanction costs from 1 January 2020 (other than licence fees, taxes and project wind down costs) are funded by Premier and/or Navitas. During the first quarter of 2020, the Company paid US$3.9 million of Sea Lion costs related to the period prior to 1 January 2020. Whilst timing remains unclear, further such costs, estimated at up to US$10.0 million and included in the balance sheet under current liabilities, could become payable in the next 12 months."

Without the Egyptian proceeds RKH would be facing serious financial stress this year.

Good evening ralph; You wrote;

"Ahh that might explain why they got rid of their only producing asset quickly then ? Also why none of the BOD buy any of these themselves, even at lowest ever prices!"
Yes; the Egyptian asset sale. I posted this on ADVFN in January

cyan - 22 Jan 2020 - 10:46:24 - 44278 of 46860 RKH - RKH
I see Egypt is performing well....for UOG

uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/united-oil-gas-UOG/share-news/United-Oil-Gas-PLC-Update-on-ASH-2-Well-and-Acqu/81573209

Our management sold the family silver to keep the lights on (announced 23.7.19)
Anyone notice just how great a deal it was...for UOG? Effective date 01.01.19...that means all the cash earned goes to them from 1.1.19. Not impressed.

I see a pretty fanciful theory on the LSE BB; that RKH had to sell Egypt because the Israeli NAVITAS was investing in RKH and we had to sell for fear of attacks on our Egyptian assets.
This ignores the empirical evidence which I presented before; RKH were running out of money FAST.
There is no way, last summer,that RKH could have formed an opinion NAVITAS would partner us.
It was all about our serious cash position.

See RNS 18th September 2019;

"Following completion of the announced disposal of Rockhopper Egypt Pty Limited, which is anticipated to close in Q4 2019, year end 2019 cash is estimated to be in the region of US$25-30 million, depending on the final mix of consideration received at closing of the disposal."

Its obvious there was very high cash burn .; about $5 m pa is GA ; most of the rest must be SEALION related.

RKH's cash positions from results RNS's;

End of 2017 $50.7m
End of 2018 $40.4m

End of 2019 estimation $25-$30m

Without the UOG sale RKH were looking at a cash position of around $15m at ye19 with RKH dropping regular big bills on them.
Even with the sale of UOG it became apparently evident that RKH could not survive to first oil WITHOUT PMO supporting them in the new arrangement with a carry from 1.1.2020 to 1.3.2020.

If MOODY and MACDONALD get awarded a bonus I will be furious.

I suspect the next news will be from the arbitration. Need some really good news.

Good evening AlmaCogan

You rightly warn of the potential hassle RKH MIGHT have chasing payment. I think that RKH stand a better chance of receiving prompt payment if the sum awarded is relatively modest; say $20-$40m .

I note what you write Ralph BUt since the annual report another RNS was issued, 30.4.2020 which included details of further loan support;
30.4.20
"In addition, the effective date of the farm-in proposed in the January Heads of Terms will now be amended from 1 March 2020 to the date on which the Falkland Islands Government approves Navitas becoming a licencee (targeting late Q3 or Q4). In turn, Premier will fund Rockhopper's share of the remaining pre-effective date costs, with interest accruing at 12% per annum, which, on completion of the farm-in, will be rolled into the Standby Loan.

The previously announced Standby Loan (which will be available from Premier to cover Rockhopper's share of production area licence fees and any Capital Gains Tax liability ) will now attract interest at 12% per annum (previously 15% per annum).

All other proposed terms in the January Heads of Terms remain unchanged with Rockhopper's costs for the Phase 1 development (not met by external debt and excluding licence fees, taxes, costs incurred prior to 1 January 2020 and project wind down costs) from the effective date to Phase 1 Project Completion (estimated to occur 9-12 months after first oil) continuing to be funded by Premier Oil and Navitas."

This is a great help.

RKH are liable to pre 1.1.2020 costs; up to $10m

"During the first quarter of 2020, the Company paid US$3.9 million of Sea Lion costs related to the period prior to 1 January 2020. Whilst timing remains unclear, further such costs, estimated at up to US$10.0 million and included in the balance sheet under current liabilities, could become payable in the next 12 months."

Good evening rpoodle
It is clear that RKH can not survive to first oil in , maybe 2025/6, without a cash injection as highlighted in the EDISON reports numbers; Edison predicting cash of just $5.346 m at year end 2021.

www.edisongroup.com/publication/parties-committed-to-complete-sea-lion-deal/26659/

Its good that a loan will cover further pre-sanction SEALION costs but RKH are relying on that arbitration award.
Its regrettable that it has come to this.
The balance of opinion appears to be that RKH WILL win a decent sum.

Good evening Mogger

Agreed; the potential is huge. The Edison report (23rd april 2020 is worth viewing for their comments;
"Ombrina Mare arbitration

In March 2017, Rockhopper started international arbitration proceedings against the Republic of Italy in relation to the Ombrina Mare field it acquired from Mediterranean Oil & Gas. Rockhopper believes it has strong prospects of recovering ‘significant monetary damages’ based on lost profits as a result of the Republic of Italy’s breaches of the Energy Charter Treaty. We estimate that these will be recoverable at c $20m on a risked basis in our valuation using a simplified approach, which assumes a 50% chance of recovering the associated acquisition costs. We have not carried out a loss of profits calculation, but press reports suggest it could be materially higher, with the claim running up to €275m plus interest. Clearly, there is material upside to our valuation in the event of a damages award to Rockhopper. Indicatively, a $50m award to Rockhopper net of costs would be worth up to 8.5p/share to equity holders. On 26 June 2019, the tribunal rejected Italy’s request for suspension of the arbitration and its intra-EU jurisdictional objections. Rockhopper expects a final outcome and potential damages award in the coming months."

hTTps://www.edisongroup.com/publication/parties-committed-to-complete-sea-lion-deal/26659/

Anything over $20 million will give RKH enough cash to cover to first oil in my opinion. We have to remember with Edison predicting cash of just $5.3 m at year end 2021; with RKH annual expenditure at around $4 m per year to first oil; (maybe in 2025/6) there will be a shortfall WITHOUT an award. I think most people are confident we will win. Its just how much? If we did not win there would have to be an equity raise at some point in 3 years, imo

After reading a ADVFN recommendation to read your posts MOGGER, I reviewed your interesting contributions and was mortified to find this thread where I did not respond to this question as regards level of arbitration compensation we might receive;
You wrote;
""There's no way we will get 275 m Euros if you look at other cases."
Which other cases?
Mogger"

apologies;
This is from where I formed that opinion;

arbitrationblog.kluwerarbitration.com/2018/01/27/rockhopper-vs-italy-weighing-legitimate-expectations-investors-due-diligence-ma-deals/
Extract;
"(Most likely) Outcome: 50% off

In cases where the respondent proved investor’s lack of due diligence or failure to minimize losses, tribunals often made the Solomonic decision of reducing by 50% the amount of damages awarded (e.g. MTD v Chile, Award § 244–246; EDF v. Argentina, Award § 1302-1312), by holding the claimant accountable for half of its own losses and the host State liable for the other half."

Good evening ralph2010
A logical post; 'nobody needs to be employed'

For the record; I am not Gozzie 2. I use only one 'handle' here.

However; I do wonder if henrygroucho is another alias of Nigoil. Both refer to boiler rooms but clearly do not know what a boiler room is or how they operate, and both use similar words; "Seagulls" and "girls", "clowns" "idiot" "scum bags" and refer to posters being in someones employ.

I hold a significant number of RKH shares but Nigoil has done a great disservice to any reasoned debate about our future prospects.

Good afternnoon Henrygroucho
Its the weekend and I see plenty of posts here OFF TOPIC; Its the OFF TOPIC thread.
Why does mine particularly vex you so much?

We are experiencing the 'pleasures' of NIGOIL on ADVFN BB boards.
Just wondered if you guys would like him back here posting?
I ask because he posted this on the ADVFN BB;
"When I got erased glamrocklover posted a post in support of me on Lse and he got over 50 tick ups before he also got erased."
Please tick up all those who wants Nigoil back.
Thanks

Good afternoon wizard125
If you look at the annual report you will note that UKOG gave the operating cost alone at £18 per barrel. That' s about $22.19 each.

How much is POO now? . Looks like every tanker is losing money.

Good morning MOGGER.

I used the Google translate facility to produce the lines;

"Jointly condemns the Basilicata Region and the Municipality of Brindisi Montagna to pay the costs of the proceedings in favor of the company Rockhopper Italia spa, liquidating them in Euro 6,000.00 for fees, over Euro 200.00 for disbursements and overheads of 15% ."

If there is more to come, all the better.

"Well, that's got to be worth a couple of pence on the sp ;)"

good sense of humour fecm lol

6,000 Euro's is less than a weeks wages for MOODY.

The amount awarded in legal fees was very modest;

Extract from the end of the judgement;

"Condemns the Basilicata Region to pay the costs of the proceedings in favor of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of the Environment and the protection of the territory and the sea, liquidating them in a total of Euro 4,000.00 for fees, in addition to booked expenses in debt.

Jointly condemns the Basilicata Region and the Municipality of Brindisi Montagna to pay the costs of the proceedings in favor of the company Rockhopper Italia spa, liquidating them in Euro 6,000.00 for fees, over Euro 200.00 for disbursements and overheads of 15% ."

Good luck happyinvestor100

One small point; you wrote;
"it would be legally barred from making any distribution to shareholders until the FIG deferred tax liability of circa $50m had been settled."

There is an agreed clause on the deferred £59.4million ;; if its deemed 'irrecoverable' it disappears.
The liability was on the benefit value from the old giant carries PMO WERE going to provide and I think that if the giant old carries goes; so does the tax liability.
They can not tax a benefit we did not receive; its irrecoverable .
Its history, whose demise has to be formalised with the new SPA.

On a pedantic point; the FIG might try to claim a small amount of tax for the 1.1. 2020 - 1.3.2020 PMO carry

Good link schlemiel ;highlighting a date for your diary;

"The next several days will be crucial, as we hear statements from Saudi
and Russia, to see what kind of mating-dance they might be going through.
Another meeting of the Joint Technical Committee, that includes
representatives of Russia and Saudi, remains on the books for March 18."

Interesting reply ColonelDrake.
DURRANT has surprised us before; maybe again; has to work fast.

So what is the alternative to the Scheme that was voted through?

It gives PMO two years without.....ummmmm