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Press release is a little complicated which seems to have spooked the market. The facts are as follows:

1. They have refinanced debt at the same interest rate i.e. 2.5% as previously which is amazing
2. The equity raise of £70m is on a "best efforts" basis. They could have been forced to raise equity but haven't been. I suspect management will see how trading goes and try to avoid if they can.
3. Wanting to refinance the CBILS also suggests CARD wants to get back to paying dividends as soon as possible

Look through the market volatility, this is pretty much the best outcome Card shareholders could have expected as the business hasn't been saddled with a double digit coupon on the debt which would have transferred value from shareholders to debtholders. I've added this morning.

Based on the analyst call this morning, analysts are factoring in refinancing of debt around 5.5%. The HSBC analyst assumes no reduction in interest costs. We will find out the level tomorrow but anything sub 4% should be a catalyst for analysts to re-assess their PFD models and increase target price. With Premier now paying a dividend, I think income investors will now take a look. The pension buyout may be a few years out but with considerable scope for dividend increases driven by revenue growth and reduction in interest costs and the recent Valeo Foods sale to Bain, Premier shares look at least 30% undervalued at current levels.

1. Strong trading performance is a given
2. Outlook will be key though probably hard for management to say much on this as we have only had a month or so of trading this year
3. Dividend reinstatement
4. Further debt pay down with full extinguishment of the remaining £20m FRN and refinancing of the 6.25% 2023, hopefully at 4% or below
5. Movement in pension liability and/or update on potential buy-out
6. Any comments on the sale of Valeo Foods to Bain (10x EBITDA) and implications for PFD (trading at 7.5x)

Expect shares to rally with a successful refinancing. I think 120-130p is currently fair value with a pension buyout and underlying business growth capable of taking the shares to 200p in two years.

Card Factory Seen Set for Exponential Growth -- Market Talk
(Dow Jones) -- 0907 GMT - Card-and-gift retailer Card Factory's latest update was positive and bodes well for the future, according to Liberum. "We see scope for a trebling of the share price on a three-year view, driven by a strong profit recovery and the five-year strategy set out in July 2020 to improve the store proposition, grow online, drive capital-light retail partnerships and expand the group's international reach," the brokerage says. Liberum has a buy rating on the stock and a target price of 120 pence. Shares are up 6.2% at 83.4 pence. (matteo.castia@dowjones.com)

Decided to sell my holding in RBGP today. I like the management and think upside from the Rosenblatt litigation funding remains but timing for the large cases is likely to be 2022 or 2023. LionFish is an interesting start-up but will take time and capital to scale. In the meantime, valuation has converged to the rest of the listed legal sector which wasn't the case when trading at 56p. I'm happy to bank my profits and should the company share price fall again due to market related weakness, I would look to re-enter sub 70p.

Card Factory: I think the stock has 5x potential from here and think the renegotiation risk on the RCF covenant is over-blown. Not often you get the chance to buy a highly generative business of a normalised P/E of 2.5x.

Bull Thesis
- Highly cash generative business: Re-opening of the UK high street and a return to previous trading i.e. business makes £50m in FCF and pays the majority out as a dividend. On a £115m market cap, that over 40% yield just from the dividend, let alone the capital appreciation potential
- RCF will be amended: Card is in breach of leverage covenants on its RCF. As we have seen with countless companies, I would expect the syndicate of banks to either amend the covenant to a minimum liquidity covenant for a fee or increase in interest rate or require a small capital raise from Card to help delever
- Birthdays and parties are not going away: The underlying business is very resilient as birthdays, weddings, graduations and parties happen all year round.
- Applying Moonpig's 9x EV/Sales multiple to Card's online business results in a valuation significantly higher than the current market cap of £115m

Bear Thesis
- Lockdown continues indefinitely: Card's stores are closed so the longer the UK remains closed Card will see its cash position deplete and indebtedness increase
- Banks decide to call the loan: A possibility though unlikely as their recovery on the loan will not be high. It is in their interests to keep Card in business and then encourage deleveraging once they generate cash again.

Just listened to the call. A lot to like. Really like the CEO's focus on being commercial and she is very clear and transparent. Convex should bounce back this year and the upside from Litigation Funding (£120m or close to 2x current market cap) is free upside on the current valuation. I'm a happy holder as the downside is underwritten by RBL, there is an attractive dividend and potential significant upside potential on litigation funding realisations.

Three businesses, legal, corporate finance and litigation funding. First should generate steady £2-3m net profit, second a more variable £3m-£4m and third is an open question with VC style bets. £5-7m net income is worth £50-70m market cap with litigation funding on top. The latter has a potential £25m (half of current market cap) payout on one case according to Simon Thompson’s piece from last summer. So you’re looking at a business that is realistically worth £70-100m in my opinion which is 60-100% more than the current market cap with the opportunity for special dividends from litigation funding.