Member Info for Ctw2014

Topped up to average down here given the virtual completion of projects and the expected jump in revenues/profits.

Thanks for the feedback. Think I might abandon using stop losses. More often than not I usually end up worse off by using them. It's rare that they have saved me from a bad fall. More usually they have been triggered in a dip that then miraculously disappears!

Got stopped out here on a dip that has largely bounced back. Now I will have to sacrifice the large spread plus commission to get back in. I am fast coming to the view that stop losses are a mugs game on AIM. Prices are too volatile and the MMs always seem to dip the price just low enough to trigger the stop loss and up goes the share price again. Views anyone?

Very droll ihmoody and I empathise. There is something very odd about the failure to get the factory done and it does undermine confidence.

......would have been nice. Just what does accelerate mean? Odd that this follows shortly after, if my memory serves, an announcement to delay! Like most in here I suspect, well down on my investment (almost 90%) and hanging on for the long term. Still think it will be a very long time though, given nothing will happen at Tomco till Redleaf is proven. Hence it would be nice to have an update on when they think that will be!

Buller - couldn't resist responding to your comment about not seeing others that will do better. DYOR, of course, but, look at: 1) Kirkland Lake Gold. I have already sold some shares here at a decent profit. Got back in and my holding is up nearly 50% in a few weeks. Great new management turning this company around like a dose of salts. Quite a bit of gain already there but more to go IMO even if gold price remains flat. 2) Wolf Minerals. First new mine development in the UK for decades (tungsten and tin). Fully funded and supported by local community. Mine and processing plant at an advanced stage. Sure fire bet IMHO. 3) Fox Marble. More speculative. Long delay on finishing factory but great portfolio of marble quarries. Just need more sales and to finish factory to process block marble into polished and we are away. 4) Atlantis Resources. Speculative and long term, but a no brainier green technology with Government support. Permissions and funding in place for a massive tidal energy project which has just started. 5) Independent Oil and Gas. Speculative and long term but share price is way below asset value. Board has done it all before and may well again. 6) Tomco. Highly speculative and long term. Could run out of cash. Fall in oil price will delay, but great potential if they get there. Holding paper losses on all but Kirkland and Wolf, but all could do really well IMO. Fox, IOG, Atlantis and Tomco are the riskiest, but perhaps offer the most untapped potential. Wolf and Kirkland are pretty much in the bag but have already delivered some of their potential, but far from all of it, IMO. Just thought I would share. Needless to say, I hope you pile in with squillions to boost the prices, but if you do, and they go tits up, don't blame me; they are just ones I fancy. DYOR and you may agree. All the best.

Stopped out on a dip this morning. Think I will watch and wait rather than jump back in, to see how this does.

Really good to see this beginning to realise it's potential

Ps: the12th and the two trading days following saw relatively high volumes of trading in the shares.

I think that I may, albeit belatedly, have got to the bottom of why the price dropped. On 12th March the Investors Chronicle published an article headed 'Hogg Robinson's Wings are clipped'. I can't access the full article without subscribing but it appears to have been negative and may have included a sell recommendation. It looks like the article was based on the February interim management statement (which itself the market seemed to take in its stride) and comments from Peel Hunt who apparently think it will be 2017 before profits recover, which the article speculates may be optimistic. The article, or at least the part I can read, appears to be somewhat more negative than my reading of the management statement itself and the impact seems, at least in part, to have blown over. At the end of the day, the latest (and recent) news from the company is that they expect full year performance to be in line with market expectations.

Great news on company website. For some reason, news on this company never seems to filter through to my broker's website. Perhaps indicative of the extent that this great little company (since new management started to turn it around) is off the mainstream radar. Once this great little investment gets more coverage the share price will do even better IMO. Happy days.

I agree that the pension scheme/deficit is a major headache, but the £10m a year figure is what would apply from 2016 if the currently agreed deficit reduction plan were to continue. The triennial review is underway and that could lead to a change in that plan. There is no merit in the pension trustees killing the golden goose by ignoring the interests of other stakeholders, including shareholders, and whilst I may be wrong, I am hoping that the references in the final results to achieving the right balance could lead to a more equitable arrangement in circumstances where trading and profits are improving. Also, the deficit seems to be calculated on a basis which doesn't accurately reflect the fund's actual performance. So, you have a situation where fund performance exceeds liabilities and yet the technical deficit is increasing because of the low prices of gilts and bonds. This is also something which might be addressed in the review. I am no expert in pension scheme valuation etc, but it seems to me that the pension scheme/deficit may be addressed in a way which leaves more room for a dividend in the future, and a recovery in the share price. That's what I am hoping anyway!

I tend to agree that Blur looks like it may be starting to recover (in terms of share price). In terms of company performance it has always had a healthy upward trajectory, attracting lots of new business/clients. The problem, as I am sure you know, was that the share price was massively overheated on the back of poor accounting which credited revenue before it was actually due to be received. Once this was realised and a new 'revenue recognition policy' introduced it became apparent that revenue forecasts were over ambitious and the share price plummeted. I managed to get out with a profit as it slid, but guessed the bottom wrongly, got back in, and am now sitting on a 79% loss on a small holding. I have it in mind to top up prior to 18th April, subject to any further news/clues, to average down and hopefully, eventually, get back into positive territory. No point in getting out, as far as I am concerned, as I just crystallise my loss and salvage little. Hence, I would rather trust that this will eventually come good with a view to at least breaking even, hopefully better, over time. Best sign, as far as I am concerned, is the recent Director purchases. That gives a clue that the recent bullish predictions about the results meeting market expectations may well have substance. Past experience suggests that the price on this could fluctuate significantly between now and 18th April, so I will look for a dip to buy into. If it doesn't come, so be it, at least what I already have will benefit from the rise. I don't know much about QPP. Good luck whatever you decide.

Well, despite my cynicism about the pace of developments at the factory, I have topped up on this dip to bring my small holding here up to my average holding size. Having looked at the pre close statement again, I am inclined to agree that revenues from existing contracts should be sufficient to see us break even and moving into profit during 2015. I doubt there is much risk of the Directors taking too much out of the company in the short term, if they can afford not to. After all, it would surely be more beneficial to them to get the company into profit and boost the share price asap.

It is hard not to be a little cynical about the much delayed factory. Last published news on this was the January pre close statement which said that it was expected that the factory would be operational by the end of this month. Anyone know if this is actually going to happen, or are we going to be treated to another slipped completion date on this?

I would Iove to be just 50% down. My figure is 89.2% 😁

In the absence of any news, it's just my guess but I would imagine this is just the market makers moving the share price to generate sales by triggering stop losses etc. Having shaken the tree, hopefully, they will move it back up again.

With the slow down at Redleaf and the commitment not to start ours until they have proved theirs, I think we will be waiting for a long time for positive news here sadly!

J O Hambro Capital Management have upped their stake to 11.47%

Decent trading update on 27/2/15. Everything on track for a major increase in power output and profits literally within weeks. Can't be long before the share price starts to reflect this.