Member Info for Ctw2014

Got it now, must be getting a bit senile! Thanks.

Sounds great and progress is clearly being made, but how do you arrive at your 65k euros? The accounts show an operating loss of 2.12m euros on revenue of 150k euros. You are obviously excluding some costs from your calculation of the margin and it would be helpful to know how you arrive at your figure. Thanks!

Call me an optimist, but I haven't entirely given up all hope of recovering at least some of the losses here. On the back of recent share price performance and upbeat statements, especially from the new CFO, I had been contemplating topping up to average down, but I am extremely glad I waited for long enough to not be caught out by the latest bombshell and plunge in sp. They have thoroughly screwed investors with daft revenue recognition accounting and may now struggle to break even/turn a profit without raising more cash (and that may be difficult now in terms of credibility) BUT if they can get past the current FRC investigation, publish accounts that are not too disastrous, and scrape through into positive cash flow, they may survive and even start to come good. Some people have obviously been buying, seeing the latest sp drop as a buying opportunity. They could be right, but I won't be topping up now until the fog clears and I can have some greater confidence that I will not be throwing good money after bad!

Someone is stocking up here x

You are not alone if it's any consolation. I am 88.5% down here as well. I doubt any amount of research would have uncovered the fact that Blur had recognised revenue before it was actually due to be received, or was even guaranteed to be received at all!

Gujarat has begun commercial operations and Chennai IV due to start at the end of this month. Looking good!

For what it's worth, I have established from my broker (Barclays) that at least some of the forecasts I was referring to (possibly the same ones you are looking at) are supplied by Digital Look Ltd, who own Sharecast amongst other things and provide 'financial information solutions to leading organistions throughout the U.K.' This includes the BBC. They are also licensed by FTSE International Ltd to publish the FTSE indices. Of course none of this tells us how Digital Look arrive at their forecasts, or the sources of the information upon which they are based, but I think we can assume that the forecasts are widely published.

Nice rise this morning on the back of this RNS. Wish I had bought more!

Just bought a few of these as a bit of a punt. Looks like a good time.

Northland say cash spend here in the last six months was $7m. This is a watch and wait for me. The use of the term 'substantially lower' in respect of 2014 revenues and the FRC's involvement suggests that there could be more bad news here before things get better, if they do manage to turn the corner before the cash runs out, which must now be more questionable despite the bullish comments to the contrary.

Thanks for the info. Looks like you got out in the nick of time here. Quite remarkable that they can put out a statement like this within a few months of saying that interims would be in line with expectations! Very disappointing that the new CFO didn't spot this before putting out the previous statement. A pattern seems to be developing of the company itself taking an overly optimistic view of revenues only to be given a dose of reality when trying to agree the accounts with their auditors. Buying opportunity or good money after bad? Decisions, decisions! Track record certainly doesn't inspire confidence. Good luck with QPP and SGH.

Thanks Buller - you probably already know this but as I understand it these automated small buys (or sells) are the market makers buying shares in small bites in order to conceal a large purchase (or sell). So long as they are buys it seems to me that it is a good sign.

Alcidas - I tend to agree with the gist of what you say. Cannot fathom though why people here seem to assume that because someone posts a question to try to illicit some clarity/facts, that person must be some sort of imbecile. I do not make investment decisions based on broker 'advice', although I would not necessarily ignore it either, any more than I would entirely ignore information from the company itself, which can hardly be regarded as impartial. Surely all any of us can do is gather as much info/clarity as possible and make the best judgement we can? What I don't like is mystery. At the moment the forecasts I refer to are a mystery to me and I was seeking to demystify them. I have failed miserably on that score so far.

Btw, yield is a good enough reason for me to be invested here, at least while it remains at the current high level. That doesn't stop me from wanting to get to the bottom of why some forecasts show this dropping off over the next couple of years, contrary to the general tone/strategy re dividend coming out from HGM. Quite happy for people to tell me why these forecasts are bunkum, if that is what they are.

I agree there is nothing downbeat about HGM's presentations etc. The forecasts I am referring to are those published by my broker (Barclays) on their trading platform, which, as I understand it, are derived from a variety of sources, not just the company itself but so called analysts etc. What I was trying to do by posting my question was to see if anyone had any thoughts on why there was such a disparity between the upbeat nature of the company's own publications and these forecasts, the exact providence of which is admittedly somewhat hazy, to me at least. In referring to the other gold miner I was making the distinction between the forecasts there and here, and for that matter recent share price performance (and hence gains). I am invested here, in a small way. I am a small investor doing my best. I don't claim to be the most informed or analytical, but neither am I an idiot, nor am I incapable of reading reports etc. I was not blowing my own trumpet. I don't do that any more than I sling insults around. I come on bulletin boards to share information/opinions, ask/answer questions etc, hopefully for mutual benefit. It is a sad fact of life that some other posters seem hell bent on trying to score points. Take a chill pill is my suggestion.

Thanks for the info re QPP Mr Regan. Have researched to some extent and there certainly seems to be some potential here following some fairly dramatic changes and a volatile and controversial history. The proposed return of cash to shareholders alone looks a good reason to invest but I don't know what sort of qualifying date will apply to that. Presumably the date of the General Meeting or just before. Any clues in that one?

If it was as simple as that IJ then all the gold miners would be predicting falling profits and none of us would be bothering to invest. I am invested in another gold miner forecasting rapidly increasing profits, even in a low gold price environment, and there is a high degree of visibility on how it will achieve that. I have made substantial gains with that one over the last year or so already. Furthermore, whilst most current forecasts on the price of gold are a bit gloomy they are not invariably bearish (see HSBC for example) and many hedge their bets dramatically since nobody really knows frankly. What with the increased production here and the planned further increases, cost control etc one would have thought that forecast outcomes over the next couple of years would be more upbeat, despite the gold price environment, but there is little explanation for them that I have seen, and they seem at odds with the generally upbeat tone of, for example, the recent presentation. That was fairly dismissive of the impact of the lower gold price on the firm's fortunes, to the extent that it dealt with that issue at all (at least in the published slides). That is why I was seeking some greater visibility on the forecasts (another poster asked the same question a while back and didn't get any response). Still none the wiser really, but thanks for your constructive, and particularly friendly feedback.

I have a small investment here which is marginally in the blue. Can anyone explain why, given the extremely positive January trading statement, that forecast profit, eps, and yield are shown as declining over the next few years?

....at a slightly better price than the price I was stopped out on. Fingers crossed.

Thanks for that reassurance - I was beginning to wonder!