Member Info for CSDI1962

Hi again T -
I can see LTH for you is unnecessary, as you have become adept at trading in your own way. You have become quite a stellar performer from what I can see - and I doff my cap sir !!
My idea of trading is not day-trading, but short-term trading which can fit more easily into my life style.
As mentioned earlier, MCRO was my first completed trade within this SIPP back in 2018.
I have done well with some shares and maybe better to stick to the few I have done better with, and try to avoid others.
I have had some shockers such as selling RMG about 18 months ago (50% loss). I would never have envisaged how CV19 has created mass demand, when general mail was in a death spiral.
I have wrestled with the idea of stop losses, after such traders as Robbie Burns (aka Naked Trader) say to cut losses at 10%.
That is death by a 1000 cuts as many trades drop 10% in short term noise. Of course some recover, but some keep heading south - like my 2018 purchase of IMB @ £29 and RDSB @ £28. Both down +/- 50%, but losses reduced from other trades.
If I could ask your thoughts on GSK. I have 550 shares at average cost £14.60 bought over last 8 months. I am surprised by how low they have fallen. I guess your view would be to sell and re-employ capital with a better trading share.
My instinct is to hold for partial recovery, and sell lower cost batches at a profit if I can, and retain around 200 for long term.
The old saying of "it's only a paper loss until you sell" is a dangerous way of avoiding managing the position and denial can often lead to a worse outcome. I can't imagine GSK will go the way of Marconi or Carillion, but neither did those share holders ! That's one of my reasons for having/intending a 10% average holding.
Just to confirm majority of my p/f will be staying as it is. There may be some change but it should be gradual and only within my comfort zone - as bad as that may be ! It is best to blame myself for any losses, rather than pay an adviser.
And once again, thanks for your help, advice and consideration - much appreciated - even if we may have different opinions.
Cheers - C

T - Yes I am stuck with my SIPP unfortunately. Any withdrawls are taxed at 20%, so would only get 80% out.
My old SIPP with Halifax/AJ Bell was £11.95 per trade, i.e £3.05 lower per trade. And had many reduced commission offers that I used.
As I have taken my 25% TFLS previously, I am in "flexible drawdown".
I needed some funds out in 2018 and found using Scot Widows was much cheaper for withdrawals as covered by 0.4% p.a admin fee, whereas Hfax charge £150 p.a + £150 for additional withdrawals. for the first year I was also withdrawing part of the profits on a monthly basis, but after the March 2020 drops, I froze withdrawals as the p/f dropped to £30K.
The bottom line is can I make a Net profit after dealing fees, and that would be easier with trading batches of £3k-£5K, rather than my typical £2K. when buying I tend to drip feed at £1.5K per batch, to try and average costs. But then tend to sell as one batch unless separated batch for trading.
As I have been investing/trading/spread-betting since 2004 I am aware of the trading costs and maybe part of preferred choice of the (buy and hold) HYP. I've had chats with other experienced investors who always warned of the cost of trading unnecessarily as that just enriches the brokers.
I can see the attraction of having a bit of both in my p/f, without taking (what I perceive) big risks. although I am under water with my p/f I would like to keep a core holding for divis which can be reinvested.
I have always had some amount of "trading/fun" shares in my p/f and that has generated a modest profit, whereas my HYP side has made a loss to date. The thing with HYP is that it is a very long term strategy, that would not suit any short-term trader, and 3 years is a tiny amount of time.
With my numerical background, I am very aware of potential pitfalls with any investing/trading that I commit to.
And for me, it is a bit of a Busman's holiday, which I should really be better at.
The biggest thing I can do to help myself is to stop buying against a falling trend.
My purchase yesterday of MCRO (@478p)for the divi was a poor decision, as we have a recent double top at 520.
This will be sold in the morning (at least 11p lower ex div) and I expect to put into my existing PFC position to take thatt to over £5K. PFC has built a support trend line from the January low of 103p, which looks a good risk/reward trade and is trending higher with a series higher lows. Fingers crossed.
Again many thanks for your patience with me.
Cheers - C

Evening peeps

S - My word - giving T a run for their money today - great results and well done with the rising p/f.
M - busy day I see, trading a couple of my holdings CEY & MCRO, et al.
V - Good luck with the PS5 search
O - Having a time out in the Arctic eh
T - I get the gist of what you would do - no problem. Just i am not ready to throw 25% of my SIPP into a single trade. First job is to work out how to manage existing losses. It would only cost me about £200 to clear the decks and sell everything, but don't think I am ready for that. Certainly have to admit I've made a lot of mistakes, and need to learn from them. I will look at possible set up of trading fund at weekend, splitting my existing p/f bw LTH and Trade, as I can see a natural split of shares, with exception of GSK and IMB, where I have already created "trading batches".
ATM, I have several batches with very small profits, and a few batches with the big losses. Question is -do (or should) I crystalise losses to re-employ the capital. With dead-end shares this would be done without hesitation, but with recovery shares (like GSK long term) I am not sure that is best route forward. There will always be future opportunities - if I can ever learn to pick more skilfully. I can see a way to have a trading pot of fewer shares with more capital allocated to each.

Take care all - cheers - C

S - Yes thanks. PFC very much in my thinking. As you say without stampy certainly helps. Similar to CEY & POLY as gold miners.
You guys have other babies you nurse very well. ( ARB, ASC, PLUS). While I am fully invested atm, it needs a radical rethink to set aside "trading funds". Having spent 17 yrs focusing on HYP - it's a huge contrast in style - and TBH not sure if it is for me - but I can't say HYP has been a success for me can I LOL. Trading for me normally means looking for 10% twice a year, whereas you guys are more serious "day-traders".

Notice MCRO headed south after my little purchase yesterday. And will go down tomorrow with the div.
Yesterday I looked at buying back PFC but would not have got any more shares for my money.
Choices choices.

Cheers - C

Morning all Brigadiers,

T - Thanks again and cannot disagree with you - your point is well made.
M - Thanks for all that too - very insightful and helpful
S - Are you the captain in charge here ?
V - I need to aspire to your old idea of 1% per week, as a first step.

Really good and positive BB chatroom this is, where honesty is refreshing.

Take care all - Cheers - C

Hi T - I am not trying to pick a fight or split hairs but there is HUGE difference bw 5% weekly profit on a p/f with 3 shares, as opposed to the total pot.

Eg. I have 12 shares over £40K - so 5% = £2K per week profit.
But if I have 75% in cash and only 3 shares looking for 5% that is £500 i.e 1.25% per week

My p/f is fully invested atm - may not be wise - but I am 100% invested.

when I look at my weekly profit it is on the whole p/f incl cash if held, not just active shares.

Does that help explain my scepticism over the 5% weekly target ?

As I am looking to set a target, want to comapre apples with apples LOL. And I am begining to think of something like 0.25% per week or 1% per month as a starting target.

Cheers - C

PS please ignore all the typos - I assume my message is fairly clear

T - Certainly giving me something to think about.
The examples of 10K trades are not realistic for me, as you cannot risk 25% capital in one trade. That is asking for trouble. A normal trader wants to employ or 1 or 2% of total capital to a trade if they can for risk management. I did follow "Trader Tom" some years ago, Tom Hougarrd and that was very interesting to watch a live trader.
The issue with trading is the cost, and you will see already several comments on my p/f thread about the cost of "churning" where I was making some profits and reducing average costs with IMB and GSK.
One area where I am very weak is buying on the dips, which often turn out to be fallling knives, rather than buying when trending up. This is because I expect shares to "fall into" HY territory, i.a.w. O'Higgins Theory of the Dogs.
At the start of this SIPP I had 13 successive profitable trades exceeding 10% bw 28/1/18 and 22/5/18 including my 1st completed trade was with MCRO for 35% on a £2.5K trade, so something was alright then. But the market has changed massively since then, so same ideas are working currently. At least I have retained 95% of my capital, while the FTSE has fallen 13% over the same time.
I am considering splitting my p/f bw HY and Trading from my current 90/10 to maybe 66/33.
HY should be a buy and hold with limited trading, and trading could be for small target profits to start with of say £50 and gradually increased.
It is funny how so many posters take the "profit is a profit" view when by being patient and holding profits would be increased much more. We will never pick tops and bottoms unless very lucky, so I like to have a typical target of 10% profit, but maybe I could do better with 3 lots of 4-5% in its place ??
As you say each to their own and all will have different methods for skinning the cat.

Let's hope MCRO kicks me off in the right direction this week.
Does anyone know the best way to profit from ex-div. Eg I've done a lot of stats with IMB divi that shows it is best to sell before ex div day and buy a few days afterwards as the drop is normally at least twice as much as the divi. Again this only works if you can cover costs of selling and buying back with the stampy.

Cheers all - C

T - Thanks again for putting up with me !
I fully understand the mechanics of what you say, and with separate asset allocation you can have a trading account etc.
Obv my situation is lack of overall capital, so all my savings are in my SIPP. The price I pay for being self-employed for many years and unable to fund savings, but as discussed have a nice quality of life. In comparison my best friend is wealthy (who isn't compared to me LOL), but has worked himself to the bone over the years. I often joke that although he is far better off than I will ever be, my £ per hour is pretty close. Just as well I don't have a proper job as I could not cope these days (more Lols). I work hard for 2 months a year and 10 months on part-time basis, and now the kids have grown up should have more free time, but our 25 y/o is one of the boomerang generation back in studies, and the 19 y/o is between everything.
Mrs CSDI is now taking NHS pension, and working 3 days per week for now, but as we both come from costly divorces are still saddled with hefty mortgage until I'm 65. Eventually we will get clear of debts, so until then saving is not an option.
for me it would be a big risk to split my pension into 3 or 4 shares, as it would only take one hit to decimate it. So for now I am running in treacle, but hope at some point to make some gains. Certainly had a good run in 2018, when increased SIPP by over 10%, so that was withdrawn along with couple of chunks to pay specific debts. Just a shame I've not generated any profits over last 2 years and have crystalised losses to negate original profits, and still sitting on a loss making p/f.
At least I have cut down from my original 20 shares of 5%, and now have 12 or so, with big weightings in the tobacco and pharma shares. Would I be better taking big hits and trading something else or trying to recoup the losses. At the moment I am trying to recoup losses by having core and trading batches. Will it work is the question.
Overall the p/f has performed well vs the FTSE, but not enough to get into surplus again.

Sorry for boring you with all that.

Take care, cheers - C

T - A target of 5% growth per week is pretty impossible on a whole p/f basis. You would more than treble your p/f each year.
You could get lucky and put your whole p/f in one share and make 5% a week - or just as easily lose it.

Aiming for 5% on one share per week might be possible, but have to be very lucky to get profit every week.
Taking MCRO as an example over last 6 months. If you bought at 200p and held throughout - yes you've gone up 140%.
But if you got in 480 at end of Nov/Dec, you would have to ride all the downfalls without losing. Ummm ...
If you mean 5% p.a then that is more realstic target, but probably nowhere near as much as most want.

what am I failing to understand ? I realise you may be aiming for 2-3% twice a week which is possible.
But not on every share possibly ??

Last week I made more than 3% on whole p/f basis, but week before lost 1.6%, which are the swings and roundabouts I would expect.

for me with a typical batch of £2.5K I need £42.50 to cover stamp duty and comms, so to make 5% profit I need about 7% rise in SP. I do not have access to cheap commissions within this SIPP.
I know there are cheaper trading costs available, but then the admin fee can be much higher which is based on full p/f value.

It would be nice if I was a better stock picker, but I would always expect to win some-lose some.
One part of my management I could change is not to take ANY losses on any batch. That would mean tying up a lot of capital for an unknown length of time. Currently have 24 batches, 7 in profit and 17 losing with half of the losers bw 10% and 33%, and just one profit >10%. 15 batches are for costs <£1.6K so need bigger swings to make profits.

One big loss can wipe out many small profits, hence my efforts to limit shares and sectors to 10% or so. With tobacco and pharma I am well over those targets at 19% and 18% respectively, with plan to reduce when get lower cost batches into profits.

V -thanks for note on SLA. I got away from them in December and moved to AV which hit approx 15% profit in 3 months.
So took the profit and put part back in SLA last week - big mistake chasing the divi - should have sold first thing this morning at 316p, but thought I would leave til lunch time as seemed steady - got that wrong again LOL.

Hey Ho. There you go !

Cheers - C

Afternoon all
Made a mistake buying SLA last week - so sold @306p for a loss of 6% after all costs.
Now to raise all of your blood pressures - I've bought some MCRO - much in line with T's suggestion.
Only 461 of them @ 478p + costs. Let's see if I can ride some spikes'n'shakes, with a little help from the divi this week.

I did look at buying back PFC, but would have ended up with exactly same number of shares as I sold on Friday !

As for M&H - what a load of XXXXXX - tell them both to go and get proper jobs and live off minimum wages like the majority of the population LOL - then she might have some real mental health issues. Why are people so priviliged just because they were born into it ? nothing against the Queen - she is a fantastic role model - but do we need a Monarchy (and all the hanger ons) paid for by the taxpayer ? I do not understand why millions are obsessed with people they do not know. Must say I much prefer to deal with ordinary people than those who believe they are entitled to everything.

S - Yes CMCX back to what I paid excluding comms & SD - but for how long ?

Pleased to see BATS and SSE both 3% in profit after last week's buys of approx £2.5K each . If I were trading these would be nice little profits each, but want to retain with 10% targets in mind.

Question is, should I try to trade for £50-£100 profit, or try to run for at least £250 + ?
A lot more work involved in the trading idea. From this you may work out that my total pot is about £40K, which offers an annuity of around £1400 p.a, compared to my aim of divis around £2.2K p.a and retaining the capital.

Penny for your thoughts

Cheers - C

wow - not seen that before - offer opens at what 5pm and closed by 6.30pm.
Anyone ever seen a capital raise over so quick ?
don't worry folks - your investment is safe as CSDI not got access to ARB thanks to Stocktrade "protecting their customers".
No funds elsewhere -so can just watch from a distance.
Right - better get ready - for my Chess Club secretary roll - let's hope I can connect with zoom
Cheers again - C

T - nice work with MCRO

Naturally I looked at MCRO and CMCX this morning and picked the "CSDI choice" obviously !
As I was saying yesterday, it's hard to help some people - esp if their name is CSDI - LOL

R - Abu Dhabi was brilliant GP back in 2012. It was a 50th birthday present from my best mate (since we were 16). He was working over there, so I travelled on my own - all paid for by my friend. Struggled to find the hotel to meet him as taxi driver decided to take to me to another with similar name. Most of the weekend was a bit hazy as a result of few too many drinks but Race Day was phenomenal. sitting in stand at end of the long straight, we had big screen in front (run-off area), he hired two mini TVs, so we could plug in to differnt drivers radios; had direct view to entrance of the pits - so could see who was changing tyres at the right time - and below us was all the action on a L-R bend out of the straight - as much overtaking as we've ever seen at a race - a few run-offs missing the L-R bend/chicane. As race developed, the atmosphere changed with darkness setting in - just brilliant. Best live race we've seen as a spectacle. The best atmosphere we've sampled was the 1991 British GP when Mansell won at Silverstone - the noise/cheer at the end was something else. As my mate pays for our F1 weekends, its my duty to contribute some pocket money to fetch and carry the beers LOL.

Cheers

Gone ahead now - bought CMCX @ 370p. Fingers crossed as usual.
Expecting a big rise in EPS from 30p to 60p. Should mean big jump in divi too. Last two payouts make over 5% p.a - my normal target. Will have to waiy and see how reacts and as always what isalready priced in. Hoping it is under the Radar a bit compared to others.
Plan to hold for 10% at least and hopeful return to 420p. And have a stop loss in mind of 350p, which may be tight with any sort of sell off. In rough terms its risk/reward is 2:1 if that makes sense ??.
time for lunch, and then brisk walk before back to continue some exciting company accounts. At least one of my clients seems to be doing quite well.
Cheers - C

Morning all - quick hellos

Not bought CMC yet as prices still falling and understand Nasdaq heading lower on the futures. Not directly connected but Tech stuff under pressure.
Note MCRO RNS with a patent fine to be appealed. Tempted with the drop and the little divi this week.

T break over - c u laters

Evening S_A and O,
Really good to have positive support from everyone here, esp as I am not supposed to be trading LOL.
Churn of p/f is a worry as throws cash down the drain. However when facing sizeable losses, is it best to do nothing ?
Sometimes yes, sometimes not. hindsight is a marvelous weapon.
It is easier to hold when things go well, and I've seen a nice pick up since last March and the recent October dip.
Still in the red overall, but working my way fwd - hopefully.
I do seem to have a knack of picking duds - but still keep chipping away.
There is a stark contrast bw the RBB short-term trading and the longer-term that I aspire to (maybe too sentimental to old fashioned school of thought ?). Your experiences clearly indicate that buy and hold does not work any more.
My plan for the week ahead is one purchase tomorrow and then sit on my hands (can I really do it ?).
I have targets set for all my shares and not expecting any to be hit this week.
The problem is what to do when they fall. If my investment case remains sound for each share then just have to accept whatever the market throws at us.
Is there no future at all for a LTH p/f these days ?
Clearly Mr Buffett would argue there is, but not in a million years could I compare my divi-chasing (income based) ideas.
It's funny how so many PIs quote Buffett, but no-one I've ever come accross has the patience to to do what he has done so formidably over the years.
Is it the nature of BBs that they exist purely for traders, and short term profits only. Some posters seem to support the buy and put in a draw for 5 years theme. but are posting every 5 minutes.
That accusation clearly applies to me as well, altho most of my posts are outside market hours.
Looking forward to my first jab on 22nd March and hoping to go to the Japanese GP in October courtesy of my best mate. Our GP trips so far (1989-2019) include Silverstone, Spa, Monaco, Monza, Hockenheim, Jerez, Abu Dhabi, and Singapore.
Cheers, take care, keep safe & GLA - C

T - I got suckered into a 2nd batch with CEY at start of Jan thinking it was turning up. big mistake as down iver 20% since then, similar to Fres. I've recently added a 3rd batch of CEY, but I am "all-in" now, whereas you have some dry powder to employ if desired. CEY was a very long drawn out saga from me starting in Feb 2011, but after 5 years I emerged with some nice profits. At one stage I had over half that SIPP invested in CEY, to help my previous SIPP get back from a 63% loss to near
break-even when closed !
Again with a an even smaller pot - there was not a lot to lose LOL
Cheers again - C

Hi T - Thanks again.
Some times you must bang your head against the wall with me. Now you know why I call myself CSDI - LOL.
Hard to get my head round what these recovery plays can go to. Don't think I am ever comfortable with Airline shares - too many outside things to go wrong. Now TUI is a bit dfferent - with all its different parts to the travel business - and aimed at the masses has a big market. I would have thought CINE will struggle against the stay at home Netflix etc.
I've tried several "Aim" shares over the years and nearly always end up in trouble - so tend to search the FTSE350.
I am only just beginning to look at funds & trusts and now have 2 of them in my p/f.
It's interesting to note that the HYP ideas really need a long time generally to work, which is polar opposite of the trading fraternity. It would be nice to have a bit of both - which is where my p/f is betwixt'n'btween.
I have PFC as my main trading share.
CEY was bought initially as a trade. but with the falls is more a divi-play now.
GSK gives me both as 6 batches there, and IMB has 2 batches that can be traded out of 3.
BATS looks like I may be able to trade.
So overall, I am building a chance to play the "spikes and shakes".
I tend to be fully invested as being in cash means no chance to grow, but of course risks suffering any downturns, which you are sensibly guarded against.
My new share for this week is CMCX - with the usu issue for me of buying on the way down. It seems to me (almost inevitably wrong) that this is seriously undervalued looking at the latest Q3 RNS in January. Time will tell but I will be buying tomorrow, if it falls early fine, but often Monday mornings prove to be more expensive to buy than later in the day/week.
I wonder where the markets will take us this week - my guess is it should be good with Biden's Stimulus almost through.
But then we have the pull back in US Tech stocks, and I hope the money keeps moving to oil (and gold would be nice). No doubt we will have some selling in March but I think the PIs tax year end has small impact compared to the IIs.
Cheers & GLA

Hi T - I guess you are trying to help me (as much as anyone) as a newbie in here .... and yes I need all the help I can get LOL.

I tend to pick trouble as I am mainly looking for HY shares, which by the very nature suggests there are problems in the air.
Very much like the O'Higgins theory, I have been a very keen follower of Midas Dogs of the FTSE for nearly 20 years now published in the Midas column of Mail on Sunday. I used that as half of my first ever SIPP account starting in 2007 but that was frought with problems as included 5 or 6 banks in the 10 shares, which if course went belly-up in the Financial Crash of 2008-09. Midas used to update every 3 months causing constant churn. From there I learnt about Stephen Bland's own HYP philosophy which was far better and set about allocating funds to 1 share only per sector and splitting funds over 15-20 shares. You can see a history of his p/fs from old Motley Fool site showing how successful (or not) his system has worked which focuses 100% on p/f income, buys once and holds forever, and ignores impact on capital - a very contrarian view of the markets.
I have adapted this to include some trading with shares like GSK, as it is obvious to me that over a long period of time the share goes up and down, allowing opportunity to make profits from selling and buying back at lower point. I have done this numerous times since 2007, while atm GSK is lower now than at any time since the 2008-09 Crash.
The Bland philosophy says you cannot see the results of his p/f construction for at least 10 years as anything less is too short a time. Clearly this is an unusal idea very much against the grain of modern life get rich quick schemes. Over many years I would guess more traders lose than win, while his scheme requires massive patience which most investors lack, and certainly would not appeal to traders. Is it Buffet who says, No one wants to get rich slowly ?
Again as I only have a very small sum invested, compared to nearly all posters, it makes little sense for me to keep to the 20 shares that I started with. So now I try to have 10 or so, with 1 or 2 much higher allocations than other sectors. Whether it will work or not I won't know for many years, but whatever happens I really enjoy the learning aspect of it, and especially the stats & records/spreadsheets/P&L/Divis etc. Each to their own LOL.
I may end up as a "Busy Fool" but hopefully a happy one as I can sit back knowing if I lose everything it will make little difference to our overall lifestyle. But if I can have a little success it will allow us the odd cruise like we did in 2004.
Cheers - C

Hi A_S
Many thanks for that. Another one to add to my watchlist. Appears to trade a substantial premium to NAV from what I can see. Offers no income either as yet as a new addtition to FTSE Small Cap that's no surprise.

However one that I really like the look of is a more established share in FTSE 250 - CMC Markets.
I've been aware of this firm for over 15 yrs when it was privately owned.
Looking at the latest TU shows big increases in revenue and PBT and a yield of 3% according to HL site.
The SP is down 16% from its 52 week high, and if my research is correct I can see predicted EPS for FY 03/21 of 60p vs 30p LY. With a current SP of 380, that would be a P/E of just about 6.33.
Just hope I am not missing anything obvious, but that is my plan purhcase on Monday with the 6.5% cash I have from my two late trades on Friday with RDSB and PFC.
There is Full Yr TU due 8th April.

Cheers - CSDI

Afternoon all
Was supposed to have a nice weekend watching cricket - well thta was over before it started !
with Mrs CSDI at work I've been catching up with other family members and some chess stuff.
My club is having a meeting on Monday night to see if we can run a Congress in Autumn.
That would be a great sign we are on road back towards life as we knew it before CV-19.

Good articel on Stockopedia about CEY - They decided not to buy as an investment club.

https://app.stockopedia.com/content/stock-pitch-centamin-loncey-772069?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=threaded

I am looking at something a bit different for me and liking what I see with CMC.

They were my CFD and SB providers when I started trading back in 2004 (when I had a bit of money before the Crash).
Managed to make enough in year 1 to take family on Med Cruise - it was wonderful.
It all went pear shaped by Feb 2006 or 2007 when my SB account got emptied with US30 trade. (Fed announcement)
I put a stop loss in 100 pts below entry, but market gapped in evening (while I was out with friend).
CMC closed the position over 1000pts below stop loss, so I ended up in negative balance and owing money - ouch.
When I looked at ccount next morning in disbelief as US30 was close to where I entered.
Lesson learnt - don't play with leverage - even though thought I had insurance.
The stop loss was not actioned as it was "not guaranteed" when I complained.

T - thanks for thoughts on CEY. I had a TP of 150-160 in mind when I bought at 125 and 133. A 3rd and final batch @ 109 may be held, but not expecting £2 until Sukari is running at full pelt again. The SP pattern looks similar to my 2011-2016 adventures, but hoping not as catastrophic as then when Egypyt had serious internal turmoils.

Good news on Vaccine front - got my appt booked for 22nd March.
Will be a race with Mrs CSDI to get her 2nd jab, after 1st one on January 3rd.

Lovely day in NW, and been for a good walk too.
Strangely quiet with Mrs at work, 25 y/o at work (only 1 day per week normally) and 19 y/o in bed - obv as it is only 3pm LOL

Take care all - Cheers - C