RE: Really interesting read this good & bad21 Jun 2022 20:13
Yes, Lightyear earned just $50.5 million in its disappointing Fri-Sun domestic debut, which along with an $83 million global cume seems to put the $200 million Toy Story spin-off/relaunch/etc. on the path to around $300 million global. If it legs out here and abroad, well, good. Even if the worst happens, and honestly this feels like Solo: A Star Wars Story all over again, an animated film still opened with $50 million last weekend. It marked the first time since June of 2013 that (alongside Jurassic World Dominion and Top Gun: Maverick) we’ve had three films all earning over $40 million. This weekend sees the release of Elvis and The Black Phone. It’s all but certain that we’ll have four films earning at least $20 million. We could see five such films for the first time since July of 2016. This is what a theatrical recovery looks like.
A return to something approximating normalcy will not be a world where every tentpole connects and every “regular” movie pulls in decent grosses alongside the tentpoles. Competition from streaming, the convenience of at-home viewing and a studio push toward VOD and shorter theatrical windows had already created a new normal where a much larger percentage of domestic moviegoers spent more of their money a much smaller number of “event movies.” In 2018, the top seven movies (Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Aquaman, Deadpool 2 and The Grinch) accounted for $3 billion, or 26% of the $11.6 billion-sized pie. And the acclaimed Game Night was seen as borderline miraculous for passing $100 million even as five years earlier the mediocre We’re the Millers could crack $275 million without breaking a sweat. Studio programmers struggled before Covid, and they will after Covid.
What we’ve seen since May of 2021, when A Quiet Place part II still earned about as much ($160 million domestic from a $57 million Fri-Mon debut and $297 million worldwide) as it might have in March of 2020, the tentpoles that would have succeeded in normal times have mostly succeeded in 2021 and 2022. No Time to Die earned $774 million global, The Batman cracked $770 million, Doctor Strange 2 cleared $945 million and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is nearing $400 million. Several biggies, like Free Guy ($330 million), Godzilla Vs. Kong ($469 million), Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.9 billion), Uncharted ($400 million), Everything Everywhere All at Once ($84 million) and Top Gun: Maverick ($900 million-and-counting) have overperformed pre-Covid expectations. Even Warner Bros.’ tentpole misses (The Matrix Resurrections, The Suicide Squad and Space Jam: A New Legacy) were commercial question marks before "Project Popcorn.”
To be fair, Tom and Jerry and Godzilla Vs. Kong essentially saved movie theaters and Dune overperformed with $400 million worldwide. Disney’s Lightyear was also a question mark before Covid. It was a cynical IP exploitation, and the constant attempts to overexplain what was just “a Pixar
Sign In
Follow the stocks
