140-150 mil opening weekend for Thor almost guaranteed now9 Jul 2022 17:14
Walt Disney and Marvel’s Thor: Love and Thunder opened atop the domestic box office with around $69.2 million on Friday. That’s 47% better than the $47 million opening day of Thor: Ragnarök, which itself went on to capture a $123 million Fri-Sun debut in November of 2017. Thor 3 earned $14.5 million via Thursday previews, giving it a $32.5 million “pure Friday” gross. Thor 4 made $29 million in preview showings (with shows starting as early as 3:00 pm), giving it a “pure Friday” gross of $40.14 million. Since the early July MCU movies seem to have weirdly frontloaded opening weekends, we’re looking at a domestic debut between $140 million (if it legs like Black Widow) and $155 million (if it legs like Spider-Man: Homecoming). It will likely end up over/under Jurassic World Dominion’s $145 million launch.
That $69 million Friday is the second-biggest day of the year behind Doctor Strange 2’s $91 million opening Friday, while that presumed $143 million launch will be right between The Batman ($134 million) and Jurassic World Dominion ($145 million) as the year’s third-biggest opening weekend. It would also be the smallest jump for a non-Avengers MCU sequel (+16%) compared to its predecessor. Yes, we can credit mediocre (for Marvel) reviews (69% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes is above only Thor: The Dark World, The Incredible Hulk and Eternals) and less overwhelmingly positive buzz (including a B+ from Cinemascore). This was the first MCU franchise to get a “part four,” and even with the Ragnarök team returning (director Taika Waititi, Tessa Thompson, etc.), it didn’t have the “gotta see it right now” impact of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.
That’s normal for Marvel, as the summer kick-off movies (Avengers: Age of Ultron, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Avengers: Infinity War) tend to open much bigger but are usually less leggy than the mid-summer offerings (Ant-Man, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Ant-Man and the Wasp). The ridiculous overperformances of Black Panther ($700 million off a $242 million Fri-Mon debut in 2018) and Captain Marvel ($427 million off a $155 million opening weekend in 2019) did not represent the new normal for non-Avengers (and non-Spider-Man) MCU solo flicks. Even Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness was sold as a glorified sequel to Avengers: Endgame and the first mythology episode since 2019 with implicitly promised multiverse cameos. Thor: Love and Thunder was very obviously “just a Thor sequel" only on par with the last Thor sequel.
In terms of “What's new?" variables, Natalie Portman’s Jane Foster returning to the MCU as “Mighty Thor” arguably counts as a new factor, while Christian Bale playing Gorr the God Butcher and Russell Crowe cameoing as Zeus surely applies. Still, this is the fourth solo Thor flick and eighth major MCU appearance for Chris Hemsworth’s title hero since 2011. That Thor: Ragnarök was hailed as a proverbial franchise savior after Thor: The Dark World while (relatively speaking) Lo
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