Minions big box office opening1 Jul 2022 18:18
However, absence made the heart grow fonder. Universal and Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru began its domestic box office jaunt yesterday with $10.75 million in Thursday previews, by far the biggest Covid-era preview gross for an animated feature. That’s bigger than the $6.2 million Thursday preview gross for Minions, the $8.2 million preview grosses for Frozen II, the $9 million preview gross for Finding Dory and (obviously) Lightyear’s $5.2 million Thursday launch two weeks ago.
Among all animated debuts, its preview gross is behind only Toy Story 4 ($12 million) and Incredibles 2 ($18.2 million). Yes, I’m counting The Lion King as live-action for reasons I explained in 2019. Not to pick on Disney yet again, but the sheer size of this Thursday preview gross (which, yes, began as early as 2:00 pm) shows that Covid cannot be held responsible for Lightyear’s comparatively poor theatrical performance.
With decent reviews and even pans assuring audiences that it’s a Minions movie, now we just do the math. If Minions: The Rise of Gru has Thursday-to-weekend legs akin to Lightyear, it’s looking at a $105 million Fri-Sun weekend and around $116 million for the July 4 holiday frame. That seems about right, although casual moviegoers could boost that closer to $110 million/$120 million.
Even comparative frontloading, if it plays like a live-action blockbuster, would mean an $85 million/ $95 million opening. Minions opened with $115 million, still the sixth-biggest animated opening, in July of 2015. That Minions 2 is going to get close, with a launch higher than Despicable Me 3 ($72.4 million Fri-Sun/$99 million Fri-Wed) in 2017, means that either absence really has made the heart grow fonder or Minions sits alongside Deadpool as a rare spin-off that’s more popular than the original franchise.
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Scott Mendelson
I've studied the film industry, both academically and informally, and with an... Read More
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