Can maverick get to a billion ?8 Jun 2022 01:28
Skydance and Paramount’s blockbuster should crack $600 million worldwide today.
Skydance and Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick earned another $12.6 million on Monday, dropping just 56% from Sunday and 63% from its previous Monday (which was Memorial Day). Comparatively, Walt Disney’s Aladdin (which is the earlier high-mile benchmark for super-leggy Memorial Day weekend mega-openers) earned $4.7 million on day 11 dropping 66% from its second Sunday and 81% from its first Monday. So, yes, the Tom Cruise-starring legacy sequel sped past $300 million domestic, $308 million to be exact, which likely puts it global total (it had $296 million domestic and $557 million worldwide as of Sunday) at around $580 million. So, yes, if the math holds, it’ll pass $600 million worldwide sometime this evening. It will pass War of the Worlds ($606 million in 2005) today or tomorrow to become Cruise’s third-biggest grosser behind the last three ($694 in 2011, $683 million in 2015 and $792 million in 2018) Mission: Impossible movies.
At this point, it’s less a matter of whether the Joseph Kosinski-directed action drama becomes Tom Cruise’s biggest global grosser or even if it sells more tickets in North America than the first Top Gun ($176 million in 1986, $180 million counting reissues and around $440 million adjusted-for-inflation) but rather whether it hits $500 million domestic and crosses $1 billion worldwide. $1 billion worldwide would require, presuming a continued 53/47 domestic/overseas split, around $530 million, right between (sans inflation) Rogue One and The Dark Knight. With Russia and China presumably off the table, the last major untapped territory is South Korea on June 22. The last three Mission: Impossible movies all earned $41-$51 million in Korea, so I’d imagine Maverick is good for at least that much. Such a result means maybe a domestic cume closer to $500 million could be enough but ask me again next weekend.
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