Conspiracy theory...28 Apr 2019 17:27
If I were the ruling monarch of Morocco I would feel I could boost my popularity; personal and public wealth, by retaining as much control of my hydrocarbon bounty as possible. This could be achieved if major shareholders OGIF increased their Sound shareholding to 29%. They would then only need to offer for approx 71% of company shares. They would need to purchase, let's say, 700 million shares (in reality slightly more but for ease of maths let's say 700 million). In this connection I draw attention to an RNS that laid out the OGIF deal, with this clause:
Not to exceed 29.9 per cent. ownership of the Company or launch and/or trigger individually or by virtue or acting in concert with a third party a takeover offer for the Ordinary Shares not held by OGIF, other than in circumstances where OGIF has first obtained the recommendation of the Board (acting by a majority of the Independent Directors) for a period of 36 months from the date of admission of the Consideration Shares.
The 36 month period will end in March 2020 but as the RNS states:"other than in circumstances where OGIF has first obtained the recommendation of the board.
If an offer for say, £3 per share was pre-arranged, it would only cost OGIF in the order of £2.2 billion (very approximately). If no sensible deal could be arranged with OGIF then an auction could follow.
We are all looking for a smoking gun and as yet there hasn't been much smoke blowing in this theories direction...but there are plenty of positives for the Kingdom & its ruler if that scenario played out. I would imagine OGIF would want Schlumberger as partners but as 'Exploration' has just pointed out...Shlum are taking no new field management projects. Maybe they would purchase the remaining Sound shares and those of Schlumberger, thereby affording them maximum 75% equity and then farm down maybe 20% for Shell or Repsol expertise.
Front runners in the 'LE' stakes still have to be Shell or Repsol...but don't write off OGIF running in the 'King's Novice Handicap!
Crude...just a thought whilst we are all twiddling our thumbs.
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