Member Info for crudehope

PNE, apparently there are rules regarding filming AGMs. I could have fallen foul when I sat in the front row with my old Samsung pad & filmed the AGM, where ex-CEO Gerry Orbell was explaining his big finance deal for the Strombone project in Italy - which ultimately did not come to pass. But do LTH remember Astin Capital, who were going to finance it & who had facilitated an avalanche of dilution previously? I recall a joke I made about Aston 'Martin' finance...the quickest dilution on the market!

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/38115/update-sound-oil-agrees-6-mln-financing-45574.html

But Gerry only had a few months to go before that boardroom coup when James took the helm in October, I recall. He literally saved us from drowning & reinvented the company. But Miss Exploration is a fickle mistress & we now find ourselves in our current position. I still trust the man who literally transformed us. He led us out of Indonesia & Italy & he will ultimately lead us to an imminent company sale...where no investor loses out!

We are obviously not in a closed period but it seems Directors could still buy shares despite a possible on-going sale process...but we are obviously the last to know what is really going on...ever thus it was for the poor PI & the tragic PBI in WW1.........

Well cleared up Ponks..."not generically to the marketing process" means we are not in a 'closed period' & the marketing process could be in full swing!

PNE, I think Brian is/was probably less convinced by the prospective value of our prospective inventory. But I am pleased that we have had Simon & Brian buying shares recently & hopefully, that turns out to be a harbinger of their confidence in our company/asset sale price. They still stand by their latest prospective figures so mid-case remains 20TCF...if we can get a fair percentage of that then we may still live to fight another day on AIM!

Oleum, how is that relevant? What may be more relevant is it was pre TE9 & 10. How or if those wells have any bearing on the 'seismic uplift' is what I am more interested in. Leaving aside the TE5 horst (which looks to be very commercial) how we value what we haven't discovered is the crux of the matter.Believe it or not what James said back in April 2017 has not been adequately updated to reflect our current circumstances, despite my best efforts at the Balls Brothers Bash, of which can be heard on Saleem's recording. If it still holds true then all well & good...but if those wells have had a detremental impact then maybe the financial dynamics have changed & there has been a paradigm shift in HQ thinking...but I seriously doubt that. I still say we have a valuable asset that more than one company will want to bid for. If Schlum present their equity in a combined deal then we have a great bargaining possition. It sadly won't be what we ultimately hoped for but it will hopefully make most, if not all investors...whole again - that is my hope.

Testpack, you forgot to say how we could/should raise the cash for 10-15 wells. I am sure current investors would like to know how this doesn't involve being drowned in new share issues?

Tapper, no & I don't have anything to be recriminated about! That was back in 2016 when we were struggling post Indonesia/Italy & we were looking for a new direction. I wanted to know what new direction our recently acquired Morocco licenses were going to take us in...so I enquired - over lunch!

Yorkshireman, explain what you mean by "payback"...is that some kind of Yorkshire karma you are referring to? My advise is:
Ear all, see all and say nowt and if though does owt for nowt, do it for they sen!!

Crude, by ekk!

Exploration....OGIF minion seen bowing out backwards promising to get those nice affendis from Royal Dutch Shell to look into to it!

Crude...oh affendi...who remembers that classic 10cc track from their classic 'Sheet Music' album?

10% of our mid-case prospect inventory equates to 2TCF at 47p per TCF. Add in 90% of the value of our discovered 0.5TCF & we can see that brings us to over £1 per share (not including Sidi). Fingers crossed but I reckon that's peanuts for a big buyer looking for loads of running room & cheap to extract gas with a guaranteed path to market at excellent prices & a 10-year tax break! Come on James & co...sock it too them!!

Crude...ever hopeful of a very satisfactory outcome at 'LE'!

Singwhenyouwin, I don't know if the same rules apply without finding any more gas but if we could hang some hope on a belief that we have proved the presence of a hydrocarbon system then what James advised could yet make us a decent profit! here's what he said:

"Good morning Kirk,
I am just beginning the process of responding to questions and yours is top of the list"!

"We haven’t provided any updated guidance on a value per Tcf – that was a conscious decision for a variety of reasons – mainly that we do not yet know the gas sales price, which is the most important variable. As we approach FID we will put a number in the public domain".

"Regarding the proved up volumes and how a purchaser might value the business…. I think the way to think about this is that we should get a high percentage (maybe 90%) of the P1 volumes and then a low percentages of the unproved volumes. The key variable which the seismic helps reduce is the risking of the unproved volumes. So right now, based on public information, we might get say 90% of our proved 0.5Tcf and a small percent, say 2% of our 31Tcf potential. Post seismic perhaps that 2% increases to say 10% or another number as we will be able to demonstrate with a prospect inventory how our 31Tcf is built up. More drilling and re-entries will increase in the proved volumes but actually most of the value uplift will come from the seismic".

Hope that helps explain our thinking Kirk.

Cheers,
James

"most of the value uplift will come from the seismic".......................we can only hope that still proves to be the case!

Cheers, Crude...ps, that Elton John movie was great fun!

Devided...not 'decided'!

Jack, we will have to disagree on that point...I firmly believe Schlumberger's & our interests are more aligned then ever. Two major license holders present a much greater bargaining position than just one going it alone. Just two partners can present the maximum permitted 75% equity in a sale proposition...that's a powerful bargaining chip and one that wont be lost on Paal or James. United we are strong, decided...not so!

I quite agree Jack...we wondered why Newco was formed and facilitating contingent payments could have been the reason. This could imply it had been intended for some time. Maybe the old maxim 'fail to prepare - prepare to fail' holds true. Were we ever going to drill three wells once TE9 was a failure. But it makes sense to conserve our cash whilst we negotiate the best possible price for our assets. That way, if major shareholders OGIF are not happy with a final offer they can help us facilitate a plan B. They have plenty of access to funding. Like Brexit, taking no deal off the table is in my view ridiculous, so we have to have an alternative in case the terms of our sale agreement are not acceptable. I am hoping OGIF & Shclumberger are United with us in a common cause to extract fair value from our licenses. The negotiating power is in no way all in the hands of the buyer. With our Chairman, CFO & dynamic CEO, along with Rothchilds - if we can create a market with competition we can ultimately attain a fair price for all in investors!

Any big company buying us or our East Morocco assets will be doing so because of the prize of the Paleozoic! Sure they have a ready made consession at TE5 and there is certainly more gas to be found in the Triasic of the Horst. There is plenty of gas in the TAGI and we have identified some hot prospects...but there are some huge structures in the Paleozoic which will excite potential buyers. I don't like predicting sale prices but 50p would be my absolute minimum. I still think nearer a pound -slightly more - slightly less, is achievable. If rumours of an offer circulate our sp will rise, maybe to 20-30p and then an offer appears in an RNS. I'm not mad about contingent payments but if the up-front price is acceptable then future payments based on success in the Paleo could be a 'Brucie bonus'!

Im off to Bognor now to watch a stage version of 'Chitty Chitty Bang Bang', where I am told by our architect friend who is in the play, that the car even flies!

Eric, agreed the RNS implies asset sale and AGM attendees seemed also to think it was probably going to be an asset sale & that we might retain Sidi - but Tuesday morning I made a point of asking James to clarify this point, when we were chatting on the phone. He said "don't read too much into it"...saying 'assets come first in a negotiation but can often lead to company sales. I don't think we can take anything as read regarding assets or company sale.

Appreciate that gesture of buying 150,000 shares. It shows you want to give investors a possitive sign.

Tradesnakes, freedom of speech is one thing, freedom to post vulgarity quite another. I know many people are hurting; some have invested probably way too much for their own comfort...but let's at least keep it civil on LSE. As for your insinuation I have ever been on the payroll...unfoftunately, no...never a penny! I ran on pure enthusiasm...........

medi, that is just what I was about to add. I just think 75% of the license could be a really good carrot to dangle.

Might we be in a stronger position if partners Shlum-ba-ja presented a united front and were at the same bargaining table? If the two partners could present a deal that offered 75% equity & held out for a reasonable price that would surely be better than us on our own trying to nickel & dime it! It would surprise me if James & Paal haven't already had that discussion...........

Welcome back Simon...