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Another opportunity today good price IMO

It is really interesting to see the success some trials have already had around the world and not in such a controlled environment. I think this week will be positive, news on hospital trial completion and home trial outline and start date. I think they have held off to announce the two together, I suspect the hospital trial has recruited as Soton and Leicester are no longer taking patients that suggests to me they have reached the 100 especially given Soton is the prime site. TR1 on Lansdowne selling and I expect this weeks trading and SP performance to indicate their position. If we have another week in the 50’s early 60’s then I expect them to sell out, if we see the SP rerate without news I expect them to hold at 10%. Another week close to June and none of us know when results will come, start mid end of June the company has indicated end of June but might come sooner, will they announce results together or separately? This can only get better as we approach June people will want in and I can see 80p to £1 range end of this month, regardless of any seller. Oil COPD data will come this summer IMO they won’t put all their eggs in the Covid basket and it wouldn’t be the most effective bargaining position to just have Covid data on the table when they come to discuss partnering or takeover. They will complete the COPD data as well and bring this to the table, that’s why they raised and allocated 3 million in the placing. It’s only 11 patients to produce data for they will do it now, yes they paused initially when the Covid trial started but the Chairman’s letter clearly states Summer 2020 results.

Check the detail Oil, that was taken from the RNS on approval of Covid19 trial. The bits I posted come from the placing announcement updated by the chairman, suggests they found a way to get the remaining 11 completed. ‘Exploring ways to get the trial completed’. Many have missed it but clearly states data Summer 2020. Read between the lines they raised capital to take the COPD element to the table when discussions regarding partnering appear.

Referencing the question from earlier today about COPD trials, I believe we are expecting this trial completed and data in summer 2020. See below:

Use of proceeds

COVID-19 clinical trial activity GBP7m
Manufacture of SNG001 drug product and other supply GBP4m
chain considerations
Strengthened balance sheet for potential partnering GBP3m
discussions with regards to the COVID-19, future
pandemic preparedness, and the COPD opportunity,
working capital and fees

3. Current Trading and Future Prospects
Synairgen has recruited 109 of the 120 patients required for its IFN-beta trial in COPD, with data expected in Summer 2020. The opportunity now afforded to the Company with regards to COVID-19 is significant and the trial of SNG001 is expected to commence imminently. As at 31 December 2019, the Company had cash of approximately GBP2.45m (unaudited).

I would suggest the COPD element is fully in play.

Everything I post is pure speculation other than my figures on Lansdowne as I think these will be clarified early next week. Probably crossed the threshold today looking at the dire trading. Nothing to suggest they will sell the entire holding, 10% feels possible as they would have top sliced a third of their holding based on that. Reduces their risk while protecting their capital.

I think some might have been sold to hedge funds as indicated by Dealer 3 on here.

I think 57p is a great entry point for next IMO. If they are still selling then looking at the pattern of trading they will want a spike to sell into and then down from, we are expecting news of home trials and final patient recruitment for hospital trials. See it up to 72p/75p sell off before the drop again, that’s if they are still selling and I am not a trader but looks quite likely IMO next week!

They could do as I anticipate the home trial recruiting a lot quicker than the hospital trial, maybe that is why the tone has changed to end of June as previously they talked about end of May early June.

I can’t disagree Ghia, could be seller and buyer riding the waves to complete their transactions. Forgot the placing no one crossed 3% from that so impossible to know the churn other than Lansdowne 4 million. So who took Griffiths 18 million? Very left field but if someone took his shares and is taking what’s on offer now if they have still been buying since March they would not necessarily need to declare until the buying has finished?

I was surprised when they said end of June. Last update said 75 dosed patients, I would expect the 100th patient to be recruited and dosed maybe next week if not this week. Then 14 days for their trial period. That would give last data set 28th May at the latest. I think they are managing expectations but I know they want to get it spot on to get maximum benefit at the next stage so no corners being cut and giving themselves best possible chance to show the drug in it’s best light for immediate approval. End of June fine with me but I think anything w\c 22nd if I was a betting man.

I am very confident we will see a TR1 from Lansdowne Monday or Tuesday 10.5%/10.7% holding 15.7 million/16 million.

It has taken them 3 weeks to shift 6 million, they have sold into the rises but also triggered the falls And the distinct trading pattern over the last month. If you wanted any clearer evidence look at the one month chart plain as day. The question is where do they finish?

What I also find interesting is Griffiths shifted 18 million shares between early March and first week of April. When he started selling the SP was 25p when he finished selling the SP was 60p in that month we absorbed that volume of selling doubled in price no new TR1 did it all fall into PI hands? Yet the SP struggles to cope with Lansdowne selling 6 million? With even more demand in the company? Very odd.

Another familiar pattern of trading, plenty of news next week then, TR1, home trials starting and possible recruitment completion for hospital trials. We will know when Lansdowne have finished the SP will react and drive north. I know we have considered stake building but I wonder if part of the trading range is not just the dumping but being held to fill a position at a set price. It seems we are not wanted to breach 75p or 55p until the background deals are done and we have been made aware. I am really excited about this one, I am in another share that was dormant for months but has now doubled patience is key. Lansdowne don’t have an infinite amount of shares so soon (I would suggest this month) they will have met their position or sold out. What’s important here is that their selling is being managed without crashing the SP and the demand is there to take their shares could be a new stake holder, PIs or Funds buying. The downward pressure will lift and we will rerate shortly. All of this mind is of no relevance as if June results are good this will be a distant memory!

A P and D?? What have you that impression? Not seen a big rise! If you read the RNS from yesterday you might understand what it’s all about. I don’t see FDA approval until anything upto end of June, I saw something in the results suggesting 10th March submission and that would therefore put around early June.

When you take off the dress and remove the make up they don’t know anything different to you or I.

I think less around 15 mill given last two days trading. I am minded to agree with ShareSting I think it looks like 10% target holding. That would be 10 million sold sounds reasonable and realistic.

We knew it was coming, anyone who watches this share can tell when behind the scenes action is in play. Yesterday a prime example I bet they flooded the market first thing with the adding buying interest to shift a large volume of Lansdowne trades then glory hunters panicked and sold up. I have been saying for ages look at the graph so obvious what has been happening on any momentum or volume. The question I can’t answer here is what was flagged in an earlier post who has picked them all up? Could well be PIs but I am not so sure more info to come IMO. Great news on Leicester that 100th patient edges closer if not already enrolled. This is due a big rerate seen it before once the tap is turned off watch it find it’s true value. This time is a gift for the savvy investor.

Which begs the question where is the supply coming from? At some point soon it will realign upward of 80p. Can’t see many selling so buying demand will win out pushing the SP up. I have seen people post regarding hedge funds etc so maybe they have been doing some of the buying. Still think we will get something that explains the after hours trades and price drops. Lansdowne have only declared 2.6 mil feels like there is more to come from them given their last TR1 was a week ago. It is purely a case of being patient majority of us are in for the bigger journey. On another note end of June seems a long time for results? Considering we have dosed 75 out of 100 and have 10 live hospitals to produce less than 3 more each to reach 100 feels cautious? Lag of 14 days to get final patient results I was expecting complete data set for analysing around the last week of May. A month to analyse and get results ready? Is this cautious or does it take that long to put into the ordinal scale and demonstrate success?

Maybe I don’t understand them well enough, I just can’t see how they can predict where a share price is heading news/supply and demand and sentiment I can understand. Although I appreciate there are Chartists who will buy and sell on different pinch points. Resistance of 70 p for example in my mind it is because a seller has instructed to sell at that range and the mms filter in their sales at that price hence dropping the sp and appearing as resistance at that level, once they sell through if demand is still high we move up simple, the chart does not tell me when this will happen.

IMO using charts to predict is rubbish they merely tell you what has already happened. We are clearly supporting someone offloading so obvious, don’t get me wrong there will have been many traders selling but you don’t get delayed trades like we have had from PI everyday. Hence the SP looks illogical when we see the trades real time. We should be trading much higher with the volume of buying we have seen some days, there is a supply we just don’t know where it is coming from, could be Lansdowne could be placing shares who knows and for how long who knows, still expect home trials news this week.

No shake wait for the delayed trades later to give a more accurate picture. All will come out shortly, clearly activity in the background that we can’t see.

2 RNS this week TR1 announcement too many late trades over last couple of weeks and SP finally not held back. The other home trials beginning which I suspect will land tomorrow!