Member Info for croftoriginal2

A very encouraging update this morning in my view.

The standout point for me is that the Aoka Mizu is now expected to complete disconnection works by end-May and sail to the shipyard for upgrade work. That feels like one of the major “this is actually happening” milestones. We move from plans and presentations to physical execution.

Also very pleased to see Navitas has taken the prudent decision to move FPSO upgrade works from the Middle East to Asia given the security situation. Yes, there is a cost increase, but the impact to Rockhopper is relatively modest (~$5.25m net) and importantly RKH remains fully funded for Phase 1.

Other positives:

• Falklands construction works underway (dock, shore base, worker accommodation to follow)

• Long-lead manufacturing progressing

• Drilling still scheduled to begin early 2027

• First oil still expected H1 2028

And perhaps the sleeper headline:

An MOU for a second FPSO with potential for an additional 125k bopd of production capacity. Clearly not a done deal yet, but to even be discussing acceleration and a second FPSO suggests Navitas sees a much bigger long-term opportunity in the basin.

Only slight nuance for me is wording shifting to H1 2028 rather than tighter Q1 language — worth noting, but hardly thesis-breaking.

Overall take:

This increasingly feels like a project moving through execution rather than another AIM oil dream.

REGARDS

CO2GPT

Mr Dodger

I’d be happy with anything over £1.50 by end of 2026.

But yes the AI forecast based on other similar developments and the share price movements there would indicate £1.80 to £2.80 for those project activities once completed, hopefully by end of 2026.

Croft

By the end of 2026 my CO2GPT is anticipating events that should demonstrate project progress and gradually derisk the investment. This includes:

* FPSO disconnect + yard arrival ✔

* Official rig confirmation ✔

* Subsea awards ✔

* Strong oil backdrop ✔

* Market momentum / institutional attention ✔

These would likely lead to share price rises from £1 to £2

hi rolf

the iran war and the disruption to gulf exports may end up accelerating one of the biggest strategic shifts of the decade: the strengthening of us energy dominance and, by extension, the petrodollar system.

around 20% of global seaborne oil normally moves through the strait of hormuz. with gulf exports disrupted, insurance costs exploding, and shipping routes becoming unreliable, importers are doing what markets always do in a crisis: moving toward the safest and most stable supplier. right now, that increasingly means the united states. (federal reserve bank of dallas)

we are already seeing evidence of this shift:

- us crude and lng exports have surged as buyers scramble for non-gulf supply. (business insider)

- europe and asia are redirecting purchases toward us and western-aligned producers. (reuters)

- tankers that would previously have loaded in the gulf are increasingly rerouting toward us ports. (****stan today)

this matters because global oil trade is still overwhelmingly dollar-denominated. if more of the world’s emergency energy supply comes from the us, then global demand for dollars, dollar financing, and us treasuries remains structurally supported.

ironically, a conflict that many assumed would weaken the us may instead reinforce:

1. us energy export dominance

2. the strategic importance of the us navy securing sea lanes

3. the role of the dollar as the settlement currency for global energy trade

higher oil prices also channel huge capital flows into us shale, lng infrastructure, tanker firms, and energy finance. even when gulf production eventually normalises, buyers may decide that “stable american barrels” deserve a permanent premium.

the petrodollar system does not survive because people love it. it survives because, in moments of geopolitical stress, global markets still run toward us liquidity, us military protection, and us-controlled energy supply chains.

the iran war may end up being another example of that dynamic in action.

kind regards

co2gpt

Divi, you remind me of the bloke in the pub who predicts snow every winter and calls himself a meteorologist.

Well one thing we can all agree on is “Divi by name, Divi by nature”

Trump doesn’t necessarily want high oil prices as that hits his voters and would lead to recession and economic stagnation. However he does need to protect the petrodollar system as without that the reserve currency status of the usd diminishes and that would cause massive problems refinancing YS debt, of course the Fed can always print more dollars so there is no risk to default but there is huge risk to inflation hence 30 bond rates escalating vs shorter duration. So the strategy is to crush Middle East oil production and switch the likes of Japan and South Korea to buying US oil in US dollars this maintaining the strength of the USD as a reserve currency. In my opinion the Iran war is purely to destabilise the region and reduce oil output from countries that are looking to sell oil in alternative currencies. Saudi in particular are a focus as the agreement on the petrodollar ended a while ago so they have been exploring alternatives.

Noked Capital

based in Tel Aviv?

Brosh Funds / Exodus Management Israel Ltd

based in Givataim?

ION Fund Management

based in Herzliya?

Agreed, once the NFB gets going then drilling activity will continue for years, we’ve already seen the plans from Navitas for expanding beyond SeaLion in various phases.

Add in the old Argos acreage and it’ll be decades of drilling depending on what is discovered and appraised and developed.

Let’s hope Rkh stays intact long enough to see the share price benefit and reward long term holders.

When is the sub 60p party?

I have some funds that want to attend this occasion.

Is this party aligned with the global market crash?

Can anyone seriously explain why Borders hasn’t yet collapsed?

What exactly is the story in the SFB, aren’t the licenses subject to conditions that if not met would mean their demise? I believe that Rockhopper assigned zero value to their SFB licenses in the past few years’ accounts.

Best wishes

Croft

Potentially a buying opportunity on Monday then, my best guess is…

63p for a 50% retrace

Or

55–56p for a 38% retrace

🛢️ RKH / Sea Lion – Important point on oil pricing most people are missing

There seems to be a lot of focus on the Brent price you see on screens (~$100–105), but that’s futures (paper oil) — not what refiners are actually paying for physical barrels today.

Right now we’re in a split market:

* Brent futures: ~$100–105/bbl

* Physical (dated Brent / cargoes): $130–150/bbl in recent trades depending on location and grade

That’s a $20–40 premium for real barrels.

⸻

Why the gap exists

This isn’t random — it’s a classic tight physical market:

* Immediate supply constraints (logistics, geopolitics, shipping)

* Refiners competing for actual cargoes

* Futures lagging due to hedging/speculation flows

In short:

Paper oil is underpricing real-world demand

⸻

Where does Sea Lion crude sit?

Sea Lion is NOT some poor-quality heavy crude, but it’s also not ultra-light Brent.

Typical characteristics:

* API gravity: ~24–28° (medium crude)

* Sulphur: relatively low (sweet-ish)

* Wax content: yes (important operationally, not commercially fatal)

So commercially:

Sea Lion = medium sweet crude → trades at a modest discount to Brent

⸻

What kind of discount?

Historically:

* Medium crudes: ~$5–15 discount to Brent

* Heavy/sour crudes: can be $15–30+ discount

Sea Lion sits in the first category, not the second.

⸻

Translate that into today’s market

If:

* Physical Brent is effectively $130–150

Then Sea Lion crude could realistically be:

~$115–135 realised (after quality discount)

That is:

* Well above most project breakevens

* Strong for cashflow, NPV, and financing confidence

⸻

About the “wax issue”

This gets misunderstood a lot.

Yes, Sea Lion crude is waxy — which means:

* Heated flowlines

* FPSO processing requirements

But:

* This is already engineered into the development plan

* It affects costs and design, not whether the oil is saleable

Once produced:

It behaves like a standard medium crude stream in the market

⸻

Why this matters for RKH

People looking at $100 oil and saying “meh” are missing the bigger picture.

Right now:

* Real barrels are clearing significantly higher

* Project economics are improving in the background

* Large, undeveloped fields like Sea Lion become more strategically valuable

⸻

Bottom line

* Don’t anchor to screen Brent

* Look at physical pricing reality

* Sea Lion crude:

* Slight discount to Brent ✔️

* Not penalised like heavy sour ✔️

* Captures most upside in a tight market ✔️

In a $130 physical market, Sea Lion is a very different beast to what people think at $100 Brent.

⸻

That’s the detail that actually feeds through to valuation — not the headline ticker.

Oddly the UK is slightly better positioned than mainland Europe due to our North Sea history. We have deep water ports and refineries and although we are a net importer of oil we can more easily adapt due to our importation methods. From a petrol perspective we actually produce more than we use, not so for diesel. The main issue will be the price at the pump, I calculated roughly £2.25 a litre which is eye watering and would cause significant hardship and economic destruction across the UK. I would expect to see diesel rationing or potentially even removed from public purchase altogether. It will just be electric or petrol for the general public. An interesting effect might be more ethanol in petrol as last year the government removed the import duties for US ethanol when negotiating tariffs with Trump. We will see.

This area from 89p through to 115p seems to be the sticking point. Beyond that it’s pretty much game on to 154p although clearly it would need real world announcements on project progress to warrant the move and not just tea leaves and chart analysis.

This is true, I still have a bale of toilet rolls from 2020.

“Paper” or traded oil prices have disconnected from real world delivered prices, delivered barrels of oil are $120 +

.

Oil reserves measured in “days of consumption”

ASIA region

Position

🇯🇵 Japan

~230–254 days

🥇 Largest buffer

🇰🇷 South Korea

~200–210 days

🥈

🇨🇳 China

~100–200 days (varies by method)

🥉

🇮🇳 India

~70 days

Mid-tier

🇹🇭 Thailand

~60 days

🇵🇭 Philippines

~60 days

🇲🇾 Malaysia

~30 days

🇮🇩 Indonesia

~20–25 days

🇻🇳 Vietnam

~9–20 days

Is no one seeing what’s happening here, western governments hold huge debts denominated in their own currencies, this is not sustainable and this has happened before. We are seeing deliberate policy to cause inflation to outpace interest rates, expect more of this for a decade or so.