Member Info for Crazytowner

MF2017,

I have already provided my estimate at the start of production earlier in this thread (10 - 15p).

This is simply using the information for Tulu Kapi that Kefi has published. A NPV of $1.45bn & 80% our share using a gold price of $2,800. This equates to circa 11p per share.

I also explained that other events will be occurring alongside the construction of Tulu Kapi which will add value to Kefi on top of Tulu Kapi alone.

(Cash in bank from Saudi Sale, Konso exploration occuring, recovery of surround licence areas, further licence areas awarded etc.)

Plus i think that there is a good chance we will see gold over $4,000 due to the market uncertainty surrounding the US, which would allow Kefi to repay TK debt within the first year of production, possibly even pay a dividend.

Ratification & Finance sign off is clearly happening shortly which will cause a re-rate

However, the sale of Saudi is going to be a huge driver to the re-rate as it eliminates every AIM investors worst fear..... dilution. This provides the platform for serious institutional investors to take positions which they will need to do from the open market.

Your valuation of 10m for the Saudi sale shows absolutely no clue as to what the assets are, their progression, their value or the level of interest that there will be in it.

MF2017,

I think you need to review the Tulu Kapi project economics and capital structure as your numbers really don't make any sense

MF2017

You state using recent company information Ethiopia NPV attributable to KEFI of £50m at construction start.

In their latest presentation Kefi state the NPV as $1.2bn at construction start (Circa £850m Kefi Share)

MF2017

I personally think we will be around 10p to 15p at start of production (If we've not been taken over by then) as the situation will be :

- Say 30m left in the bank from Saudi sale

- Konso being proven up

- Ethiopia coming on line with huge cash generation and fast Cap Ex payback

- Preferred bidder status with Ethiopia Government for future licence areas

- Recovery of Tulu Kapi surrounding licence areas

- All the contacts and know how to get future projects up and running

I also think Trump will try for and probably get a 3rd term which gives us 8 years of market uncertainty and ever higher gold prices

Gold currently at 3333 :)

Stringer,

Kefi has informed us that they are working through a long list of interested parties and their indicative offers.

The first round was the end of Feb with a further month to allow offer revisions to account for the new JV and resource update.

We also know that the Edison research valued the Saudi sale at between 50 & 100m and that Kefi approved the Edison report after they had received the first round of offers. i.e. they couldn't have allowed Edison to publish the research note if they knew that the information was false or misleading.

Stebo,

Bonkers posted on here that they believe nobody is interested in buying our Saudi asset. That shows that they are either completely clueless or totally disingenuous (I personally believe it is mixture of the 2 with some bitterness thrown in).

Kefi is on the verge of financial sign off and main works project launch, plus our Saudi asset looks like it will be sold somewhere in the 50 - 100m range.

With the risk of further dilution removed, a clear path to enormous dividends, first mover status and a pipeline of future projects, private and institutional investors will be buying into this like crazy.

I personally think 5p would be low should the company be holding 75m from the saudi sale and the financing for Tulu Kapi signed off.

Ratification can land at any time

Saudi sale can land at any time

It's clearly happening and very soon

Agreed Rob,

Couple that with "we have been advised by the highest Government officials that we can rely on that process being completed such that it will not in any way hold up the launch" and we now know launch date has been set for end of June.

Thanks Tintin,

Solid questions and answers

Just to complete the missing part of your post:

Q. With AFC ratification a critical element to finalise financing, shareholders have been told that all parties are aligned, yet its completion date has continuously been pushed back and missed. Why should investors have confidence that Kefi can deliver on the most recent dates?

A. KEFI does not run the Ethiopian Parliament. But we have been advised by the highest Government officials that we can rely on that process being completed such that it will not in any way hold up the launch. That is the reality.

Q. The 8 April RNS notes that construction of initial site facilities is underway as well as expanded water supply and camps for construction and security. When will you provide photos of these site construction activities?

A. We are aware that there is some interest in seeing photos of site activities. We do plan to do so but need to judge when it is appropriate to publish photos of site activities based on privacy and security priorities.

Burgeseb,

Somethings have slipped whilst others are occurring. What is important is whether the company is progressing, which it clearly is.

None of us know when some of these things will occur, we can only go by what the company says, our own experience, knowledge and research.

If we believe what the company says and try to fill in blanks are we being misleading? I for one have no doubt of the massive share price rerate once Saudi sale and / or finance sign off occurs.

Compare this to a summary of Bonkers posts below on Saudi. They are obviously totally clueless or purposefully misleading due to some sort of Kefi vendetta for which they need to post 200 times a month.

1. Nobody is interested in buying our Saudi stake

2. The sale will be per a valuation (contrary to what has been RNS'd)

3. Criticising those who personally calculated a price of circa $70m months ago (even before edison)

4. $10m is likely sale price.

So tell me Burge, do you agree with Bonkers 4 points above now? Did you agree with them 3 months ago?

Also seem to remember Bonkers saying that nobody else would be interested in our Saudi asset, only Artar and criticising those saying circa $70m which turns out to be the mid point of Edisons valuation.

No idea or interest in what Green Box Bonkers is currently posting, but it's worth remembering that they think Saudi is going to be sold for $10m off the back of a valuation and that the compulsory sale has already been activated by Artar.

Meahnwhile the reality is that Kefi are working on a long list of interested parties, indicative bids are in, the Edison report was issued and approved by Kefi with a $50-100m value, the compulsory sale is at arms length market value and there has not been the required RNS if Artar had actioned the sale.

A great interview

Mrplumper,

I have been invested here about 18 months and am happy with the progress made.

These dips have allowed me to add so currently hold around 30m at an average of about 0.57.

Have absolutely no doubt that I will make a lot here soon, so temporarily being down is simply part of the process as long as I can see progress.

You are clearly trading it.

As you know, the banks credit committees and boards have approved the finance, Early Works has commenced, some initial main works are commencing, suppliers have been told to proceed for 1st July start and Kefi are working with a long list of interested parties for our Saudi stake.

None of us know the exact timing that the Ethiopian Parliament will ratify AFC, but when they do, the share price will go ballistic.

I'm not really into the whole you've cost people money type posts, Its a bulletin board and people press buy or sell freely.

I certainly can't promise 5p on Financial sign off and Saudi sale, but I certainly think it will happen.

At that point I certainly won't be thinking about about how many people you've cost money and have missed out.

Those suggesting Harry / KEFI leadership is incompetent are only lying to themselves.

Tulu Kapi is on the edge of financing and construction and we are about to sell Saudi for multiples of our investment in it. So many explorers never make it to this stage, yet alone in new territories.

Kefi is actually very good at updating shareholders via RNS and Q&A. Whilst it is frustrating I've not made millions here just yet, I can see it coming with every RNS showing progress.

The Edison report from 2 weeks ago clearly stated that banks provide bridging facilities in situations such as ours (worth remembering that ban boards have signed off on this now)

Plus we know that KEFI has utilised such facilities in the past.

Really can't see any need to raise with what finance and Saudi sale occurring so soon

Kefi is certainly not dragging their feet, they are clearly advancing with a key element now being between two external parties (AFC & Ethiopian Parliament).

Ratification and Saudi sale are both huge pieces of news and could land tomorrow, next week or next month.

A rerate to 4p really isn't unreasonable upon both events (75m Saudi sale and Financial sign off)

The Edison Research 2 months ago (which is verified by Kefi prior to release) is pretty clear

- Project launch H125

- Lenders provide bridging loans and working capital facilities at this stage

- Saudi sale 50 to 100m (first round of indicative bids had been received)

Today's RNS was positive as confirmed contractors have been given start dates and sale proceeds of GMCO will allow us to keep a larger chuck of TKGM with money left over.

No idea why some are getting so worked up about it, chill, ratification and Saudi sale could land at any time

I really don't see what all the fuss is about todays RNS and actually see it as positive.

Ethiopia

- Contractors have been given start dates

- Utilising some of the sale proceeds of GMCO will increase our ownership of TKGM

Saudi

We know that the JQ DFS was scheduled for completion by the end of Mar 25, so its not a surprise that it has just been made available to shortlisted parties. I don't see expect this to have any material impact on what suitors are willing to pay.

We know that in Mid february Kefi were hoping for ratification by the end of the month, so it appears to be very close.

The House of Peoples Representatives appears to meet on Tuesdays.

This has just been posted on the AFC website.... Might this be the event to announce ratification

https://www.africafc.org/news-and-insights/news/leaders-from-angola-ethiopia-egypt-south-africa-to-lead-discussions-at-afcs-5th-country-stakeholder-symposium