Member Info for Craignews

| Scenario | Market cap | Share price |

| ----------------------- | ---------- | ----------- |

| Today | £80m | ~0.39p |

| Steady-state | £120m | ~0.59p |

| Institutional re-rating | £147m | ~0.73p |

| Growth optionality | £184m | ~0.91p |

1. Management is explicitly anchoring the market to April 2026

On AIM, companies do not pre-announce a structured reporting cadence like this unless they are confident they can:

Deliver stable operations

Report repeatable metrics

Avoid having to interrupt the narrative with emergency funding news

👉 If a placing were imminent (next 1–3 months), this wording would be risky — because a placing would break the cadence before it even starts.

Why this pushes any placing later, not sooner

2. April 2026 becomes the first institutional “data point”

Institutions don’t want:

One shipment

One month of cash

They want:

A quarter

Trends across mining, processing, logistics, shipping

Evidence of steady state, not ramp chaos

That April update is designed to be:

“Here is the baseline. Now we talk growth.”

👉 Raising before that would weaken pricing power.

3. This is textbook “de-risk, then raise (optionally)”

The sequencing implied is:

Achieve steady state

Run several shipments

Publish first quarterly operational report

Let brokers take that to institutions

Then consider acceleration funding

That puts any sensible placing window at:

🟡 Post-April 2026, not before it

4. Why this aligns perfectly with adding Peel Hunt

This sentence + Peel Hunt together tells a clear story:

Peel Hunt → institutional preparation

Quarterly reporting → institutional comfort

April 2026 → valuation anchor point

Institutions hate AIM companies that:

Drip-feed updates

Change messaging

Move the goalposts

This is Kodal doing the opposite.

What this means for investors, practically

🔹 Before April 2026

❌ Highly unlikely to see a discounted placing

❌ No reason to front-run dilution fear

✅ Market likely trades sideways to gently higher on shipment confirmation

🔹 April 2026 update

This becomes a pivot moment:

If steady state metrics are clean → valuation reset

Brokers can model FY cashflow properly

Institutions can commit with conviction

🔹 After April 2026

That’s when:

A growth placing becomes logical if they want to accelerate

Or they continue self-funding if cashflow allows

Either way, retail isn’t blindsided.

One subtle but important AIM nuance

Companies planning near-term placings usually:

Avoid committing to regular reporting structures

Keep language flexible

Emphasise “funding options”

Kodal did the opposite.

That’s a confidence tell.

Bottom line

This RNS line is quietly bullish:

It argues against an imminent placing

It supports the idea that Peel Hunt is for post-steady-state institutional re-rating

It frames April 2026 as the first serious valuation moment

Following on from my timeline yesterday of how the process for institutions to invest works, brokered by Peel (Specialist in this area), did anyone note the following in the 17th December RNS? This would align perfectly with the appointment of the new broker

"As KMUK's Bougouni operation moves to a steady state producer, the Company expects to provide a quarterly update covering key aspects of the operation including mining, processing, transport and shipping and including exploration and development drilling, with the first update expected in April 2026."

Quarterly updates are exactly what the institutions would expect to see - the rhetoric is lining up for the re-rate, and bigger UK money to be invested, perhaps bringing stage 2 forward

Perhaps not just the mine investment, but also the gold to be brought online sooner

Will be interesting to see the after hours trades over the coming days - wouldn't be surprised to see some 50 million and 100 million share trades

Such a long time 'Forum reader', yet only a member for a day - me smells a turd somewhere

130k of sells in the last 8 minutes, and the price holds up - That says something is brewing when the MM's are happy to buy them without dropping the bid - that is an order being filled :-)

Ahh, here we go - Positive news and Sylvia crawls out from under a rock 😁

Kodal Minerals has shipped, is cash-generating, debt-light, and has added Peel Hunt.

This is a very specific AIM phase — and it trades in recognisable patterns.

Phase 1 — “Quiet Strength” (Now → next few weeks)

What usually happens

Share price drifts or chops sideways

Volume modest

Retail gets bored

No placing announced

Why

Institutions are being sounded out, not committed

Brokers are cleaning up the equity story

Management wants more shipment data first

Retail play

✅ Hold core position

❌ Don’t expect fireworks

❌ Don’t panic on low-volume dips

👉 This phase filters impatient holders, not informed ones.

Phase 2 — “Narrative Tightening” (1–3 months)

Signals you’ll see

More precise language on:

monthly output

shipment cadence

cash receipts

Possibly:

site visits

broker notes

management interviews

Still no placing

What’s really happening

Institutions are modelling cashflow

Brokers are testing appetite

Valuation anchor is being reset from “hope” → “cash”

Retail play

✅ This is often the best risk/reward accumulation window

⚠️ Expect boredom, not bad news

❌ Ignore “placing rumours” without hard signals

Phase 3 — “Expectation Build” (the danger zone)

This is where retail often gets caught out.

Tells

Share price firms up without news

Volume quietly increases

Language shifts to:

“accelerating”

“options under review”

“capital allocation”

What’s coming

Not confirmation — but optionality.

Institutions like:

“We could raise — not we must raise.”

Retail play

⚠️ Decide in advance:

Are you happy with dilution for growth?

Or are you trading the run-up?

👉 Indecision here is how retail gets trapped

Phase 4 — Placing announced (if/when)

This is where psychology matters.

Case A — Good placing (what Peel Hunt is hired for)

Institutional cornerstone(s)

Modest discount

Clear use of funds (expansion, not survival)

Shares may dip briefly… then stabilise

Retail move

✅ Often buy the placing dip, not sell it

✅ Market usually re-rates within weeks/months

Case B — Bad placing (less likely here)

Vague use of funds

Heavy discount

No expansion clarity

Retail move

❌ Reduce / exit on strength beforehand if you don’t trust execution

Phase 5 — Post-placing reality

This is the bit retail underestimates.

What institutions do

They don’t flip

They build positions

Liquidity improves

Volatility reduces

What retail often does

Rage-sell the dilution

Miss the re-rating

👉 Many AIM producers make their best returns after the first institutional placing, not before it.

1) Institutional re-rating is now possible

Peel Hunt’s sweet spot is UK institutions. Those funds often won’t engage until:

there’s real shipments, cash receipts, and an operating rhythm

Kodal now has that (first cargo cash received, regular shipment plan).

2) Funding optionality for “growth capex”, not rescue capital

With Stage 2 (flotation) flagged for 2028 and a much larger forecast output, the market naturally expects meaningful capex ahead.

Adding Peel Hunt improves Kodal’s ability to run a bigger, more institutional financing process when they choose (equity, hybrids, or structured options via the broader advisor ecosystem).

3) Register “de-risking” alongside a Chinese offtake/JV narrative

Kodal explicitly positions Hainan as JV partner/offtake counterparty.

A more UK-institutional register can reduce “single-partner concentration” perceptions and potentially improve valuation multiples.

Dilution stress-test (practical scenarios)

These are structures you often see, not predictions:

Self-fund + small top-up

Use operating cash + working capital facilities to fund incremental debottlenecking

Minimal dilution

Institutional growth placing (where Peel Hunt helps most)

Fund a discrete expansion step or accelerate Stage 2 workstreams

Dilution depends on discount + size, but can bring stronger long-only holders

Structured/non-dilutive mix

Less common on AIM at small scale, but becomes more feasible once shipments are routine and counterparties trust the operating data

What to watch over the next 1–2 quarters (these tell you why Peel Hunt was added)

Capital allocation statement: do they outline a funded path to higher throughput / Stage 2 milestones?

Shipment cadence: do they hit the “regular ≥20kt” export rhythm and confirm consistent receipts?

Any commentary on partner facility status: whether that earlier loan facility has been repaid/retired (or replaced).

Institutional marketing: more UK fund meetings/notes/coverage typically follows a Peel Hunt appointment.

1. This Is About Scaling Up Production, Not Bridging Finance

Once an AIM miner proves:

First production

First shipments

Cash inflow

No debt

…the next step is almost always expansion capex (throughput uplift, recovery optimisation, mine life extension).

Peel Hunt typically comes in when a company wants to raise growth capital that:

Is institutional

Is less dilutive than AIM retail placings

May involve cornerstone funds

👉 This suggests Kodal is positioning for Phase 2 / Phase 3 expansion funding, not plugging a hole.

2. Reducing Over-Reliance on the Chinese Partner

Having a Chinese partner is commercially strong — but UK institutions are cautious about:

Single-partner dependency

Offtake concentration

Political optics

By appointing Peel Hunt, Kodal can:

Balance the register with UK / Western institutions

Improve ESG and jurisdiction optics

Avoid the narrative that “China controls the asset”

👉 This is often done deliberately before larger Western capital is introduced.

RNS Out

new broker added

5. Liquidity + Research Credibility as Volumes Increase

As shipments ramp:

Trading volumes rise

More institutions can justify coverage

Analyst models become cash-flow driven

Peel Hunt provides:

High-credibility UK research

Access to “real money” funds

Better liquidity support for larger holders

👉 This is about maturing the shareholder base, not rescuing the balance sheet.

6. Why Add, Not Replace, a Broker?

The key signal here is addition, not churn.

If Kodal:

Replaced Canaccord or SP Angel → red flag

Added Peel Hunt → growth signal

Each broker still serves a role:

Canaccord → mining specialists

SP Angel → retail & AIM-savvy investors

Peel Hunt → UK institutions & scale capital

What This Most Likely Signals

With all your added facts, the most probable motivations are:

✅ Production scale-up funding

✅ Institutional re-rating now shipments are proven

✅ Reduced China concentration risk on the register

✅ Exploring less-dilutive finance options

✅ Preparing for a materially larger market cap

This is exactly when higher-tier UK brokers tend to be appointed.

And you think Hainan need to borrow money why....lol

Avg.:1,800

+30 (+1.69%)

Did everyone miss the point that they are still loading and producing the lower grade ore while they are getting it to nameplate, and putting the higher grade through once achieved and the bottleneck is confirmed as fixed

How thick are you lot? $747 or whatever it is isn’t over $930 per tonne - Correct

Have we not considered deductions for the $117 million invested, to be repaid from spodumene as part of the offtake

Clearly the price is less to pay down the agreement

For those that are to stupid to understand an RNS - The shipment has gone, not days away - Gone!

Price is as follows, after deductions - Not hard to figure out really

the Company expects the price to exceed US$930 per dry metric tonne ("DMT") of spodumene concentrate.

1,113

+46 (+4.31%)

Wrong again Joe - as always

Spodumene Concentrate Index (CIF China) Price, USD/mt

Li₂O:5.5%-6.2%

CIF Price

Converted to 6% Grade

Avg.:927

+8 (+0.87%)

Anyone have a satellite image of the mine site? Wonder if there’s less bags there?

That looks like an awful lot of spod bags