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Desertsands - very good point...who is hoovering up these shares? of course there is exchange rate risk..

Maybe some punters who hope there will be a bidding war too....infact some Darktrace Directors may know first if Jeffries is seriously trying to start a bidding war....

honestly not worth the trouble buying unless there is a new higher bidder

KCRCR where will you invest next :)

Today the Fed Powell will make announcement , tonight watch

He will say inflation still too high and at best maintain current interest rates (any cut delayed). Therefore dollar strenght most likely in next 3 to 6 months , and implied Pound weekness....also UK might cut interest rates earlier than USA

so 620 p achievable

However I am not that interested in the exchange rate, i am more interested in whether Jeffries or others can find a new buyer at higher price within 6 weeks

Fully agree, if you only expect 620 will happen at best, sell now and invest elsewhere.

If you believe extra bidder will come within 6 weeks then Hold

Not much more from me now, til we hear timetable, and I expect a new bid to happened maybe 3 to 6 weeks from today

Fingers crossed

This means more chance that 620 p according to exchange rate in next 3/4 months could be maintained...ie strong dollar

Powell will annouce today

Thanks Win,

This time cautiously optimistic...that a better offer somehow can happen

In fact, may I say, any of you who believe a higher bid very unlikely then why not sell out now and invest in a better share/shares and not waste months on Dark?

Its in my interest all retail sell out now, ie those who might vote yes to the current offer, so higher chance to block current bid and get higher offer

The Times says “hold”

The final price depends on usd / pound exchange rate , and whether 75 per cent or more vote yes ! And also whether another offer comes in , for now we can only see one offer , but as they say ., one week in in Politics is a long time ! One month in the stock market gives other buyers time to make offer

Think about it , if say Microsoft were interested to offer , when would it happen … it might take say 3 weeks at least to get internal approvals to make an offer so we are talking about end of May or early June for other bids to come ( if at all )

The reason volume is low is not that investors are waiting for 16 p more , it’s because investors believe still a chance for f higher final price with more bids ??

Even The Times says @Hold@

Today Volume just over 1 million shares so far, people are not selling much?

darktrace deal isn’t perfect but it seems sensible

(the times)

traders and investors have mourned darktrace’s take-private deal as a loss for london’s stock market as yet another technology company flees into the arms of an american private equity firm. this is certainly a change in tune, given that the market hasn’t been particularly forgiving towards the technology company during its short life on the london stock exchange.

darktrace, which specialises in artificial intelligence-powered cybersecurity and which counts the likes of kpmg and rolls-royce among its clients, was listed in 2021 amid a frenzy for new technology businesses. its shares jumped as high as 946p that year, but hit a nadir of 239p in early 2023.

thoma bravo’s offer of $7.75 per share, equivalent to 620p, places it at a 20 per cent premium to its closing price on april 25 and a 44 per cent premium to its volume-weighted average in the three months leading up to the offer.

frankly, shareholders are better off getting this investment out of london. the stock market is — rightly or not — spooked by darktrace’s connection to mike lynch, one of its early backers who is facing fraud charges in the united states over the sale of his autonomy software company to hewlett-packard. he denies all charges, but analysts continue to believe that his legacy is one of the main reasons darktrace trades at such a wide discount to its american peers.

the lynch case has stalked darktrace. its executive team includes several former autonomy staff, including poppy gustafsson, its boss, who worked in autonomy’s finance department from 2009 to 2011. it will not be lost on investors that the takeover would be beneficial for lynch, who together with his wife owns just under 7 per cent of the company, worth £290 million under the terms of the deal.

the shadow of lynch’s legacy has drawn the attention of several short-sellers over the past three years, not least from the shadowfall and *****essential capital management hedge funds. the latter’s questions about the accuracy of darktrace’s financial statements prompted the company to hire an independent auditor last year. ey gave it the all-clear, but reputational damage can be hard to shake off.

so long-term shareholders may agree that the london stock market is not the best home for darktrace. the real question then is: how opportunistic is thoma bravo’s offer?

a 20 per cent premium is decent and nothing to balk at, certainly not when in comparison with some of thoma bravo’s previous takeovers. when it bought sophos, the london-listed cybersecurity business, in 2020, it did so at a 37 per cent premium. it paid a 48 per cent premium for sailpoint, the american identity security company, in 2022, bought proofpoint, a cybersecurity and compliance player, at a 36 per cent premium in 2021 and mcafee for a 22 per cent premium, also in 2021.

that being said, darktrace was at such a wide discount to its american peers that e

Yes not done deal yet for sure

Last year I was too confident of a deal , this year cautiously optimistic that a better deal than the one on the table can happen , but not betting my "shirt" on it !

Honestly 620 p is daylight robbery, surely Microsoft or someone will come riding in with the Cavalry ?

Yes not done deal yet for sure

Last year I was too confident of a deal , this year cautiously optimistic that a better deal than the one on the table can happen , but not betting my short on it !

I agree with you all including Sheltie - there is no other bid yet

Give. Last year the deal never happening the big difference this year is Dark has been advertised for sale and a firm offer is on table

I believe TB might pay more if needed

Fully agree Jeffriesc and other I banks not yet go another bidder , and if am only cautiously optimistic 69 % another bidder will come

It’s an interesting point that 75 per cent needed to pass , there is a chance it will not pass the vote and TB will raise

Ubs are assuming no counter bid

Only 4 million shares after some 30 million on Friday

So most people are Holding out for Higher Bid....a Higher bid may or may not happen ...Jeffries and others likely might be looking out

1 sell out now and move onto other shares ( no point waiting months for extra 15 p)

2. Sell out and pray for a no vote blocking the sale ( 10 per cent chance )

3. Hold most shares , sell a few , and wait for new buyer to emerge at higher price ( 69 per cent chance )

Are you sure HKK ?

Thanks HKk and everyone contributing including good old Sheltie

What does all this mean

I mostly care now , can Jeffries find another buyer ?

There is still hope of a bidding war

Many usa firms want a Uk footprint … sure Jeffries can find someone within next 3 weeks or so willing to offer 750 p :):)

HKK the pound / dollar rate is only one small factor ( a few per cent each way ) so far I believe US dollar will stay strong for next 5 months

The biggest factor is can Jeffroes find another mug to offer more , say 750 p :):) thanks the big bet now another counter offer !