Member Info for Cowichan

Oct 8, 2021
Our Executive Chairman Jamie Boyton is currently visiting Sukari Gold Mine in Egypt, & is taking the opportunity to see our load and haul operations in action. Sukari is our first major earthmoving contract, which commenced operations in February, & is progressing extremely well.

picture here:
https://twitter.com/_CapitalLimited/status/1446341970394112002

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My Thoughts
It's beyond ridiculous that Capital Drilling's tweet should instantly garner 28 likes and 4 retweets - given it has a market cap a tenth of Centamin's.

Bobby Morse of Buchanan UK is the public relations guy for both companies - why? And how has this affected the decision making of our directors when choosing contractors?

I am glad we have Mr Horgan at the helm now - a new set of eyes so to speak. The forthcoming contract with the firm based out of Ireland is a much needed and healthy step towards diversification IMO

So Jeremy resigned from Centamin on nearly the same day Mr Horgan arrived. Why? Maybe something to do with his Endeavour work history (and the failed takeover by Endeavour)

And now he works in Canada as COO of Artemis Gold

Artemis Gold Inc. (TSX-V: ARTG) is pleased to announce the appointment of Jeremy Langford as Chief Operating Officer of the Company effective January 06, 2021.

About Jeremy Langford

Mr. Langford has large multi mine gold producer company experience and an extensive proven on-the-ground track record internationally in managing operations and the development of scale greenfield assets, continually delivering operational success over the past 15 years.

Notably, Mr. Langford served most recently in the role of COO of Centamin Plc and prior to that COO & EVP Construction and Technical Services with Endeavour Mining Corporation, at which time he had the responsibility of advancing Endeavour’s development assets. During his time with Endeavour, he led the successful development and ramp-up of the Agbaou, Hounde, ITY and the Nzema gold projects in West Africa, along with the implementation and integration of owner mining activities across various operations.

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My Thoughts:
Artemis Gold Inc is at least as far away from production as Centamin's Doropo project and yet it already has a market cap of $ 827 million! (it was valued at around $100 million a year and a half ago prior to announcing its development plans)

The company's forthcoming processing plant & related infrastructure is estimated to cost $ 650 million so they will have arrange for considerable financing or a new share issuance too.

Given that information, how much do we think the market is valuing Centamin's West Africa resources? Zero!

I hope Centamin will seriously consider the benefits of spinning out its West Africa projects into a new entity so current shareholders can see some meaningful value creation in the short & long term while preserving the piggy bank to explore and develop Egypt.

Figures include WASTE and ORE

2014 40 Mt
2015 58 Mt
2016 61 Mt
2017 70.8 Mt
2018 77.8 Mt
2019 74 Mt
2020 79.6 Mt
2021 H1 47Mt ( extrapolate to 94Mt+ for full year )

note: some years the totals were taken from graphs (for speed) - so not exactly precise

The latest:

"48Mt total material moved for H1. A total 2Mt was contributed by Capital"

"The waste stripping programme is key to improving medium to long term operating flexibility in the open pit. A record total of 41Mt of waste material was moved in the open pit, 7Mt more than scheduled. This is testament to the owner-operator team at Sukari delivering improved operating efficiencies including better fleet utilisation, better blasting and fragmentation, and further supported by the quick mobilisation and ramp up from Capital"

So I suppose that would mean 7Mt of the 48Mt [ 48 - 41 ] was ore of grades above .2 g/t

Bottom Line:
Management really is getting far more tonnage hauled than in the past. Thus my recollection that Centamin had its own spare haul capacity was true up until recently - no doubt a result of having Captain Horgan at the helm.

Thanks DASUT - always reassuring to have a pro go over the numbers and confirm we're still on course.

'Owing to other professional commitments, Bill Koutsouras has resigned from his position as director and interim CEO of Aton'

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About Mr Koutsouras

'He oversaw financial advisory mandates, investment related services and the financial management and operation of the Endeavour group of companies and was involved in over $25 billion of M&A transactions and in over $4 billion of financing for junior/mid-tier resource companies. He’s one of the original executives involved in the creation of Endeavour Mining, a senior gold producer in West Africa'

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I wonder if he got a new position, elsewhere...

Hi DASUT,

I have to admit I know precious little of the technical in regards to ore processing. I compiled the stockpile figures from quarterly reports.

The following is from the last annual report (I'm not sure I understand it completely!)

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Cost of mining stockpiles include costs incurred up to the point of stockpiling, such as mining and grade control costs, but exclude future costs of production.

Ore extracted is allocated to stockpiles based on estimated grade, with grades below defined cut-off levels treated as waste and expensed.

While held in physically separate stockpiles, the Group blends the ore from each stockpile when feeding the processing plant to achieve the resultant gold content. In such circumstances, lower and higher-grade ore stockpiles each represent a raw material, used in conjunction with each other, to deliver overall gold production, as supported by the relevant feed plan.

The processing of ore in stockpiles occurs in accordance with the LOM processing plan and is currently being optimized based on the known Mineral Reserves, current plant capacity and mine design.

Ore tonnes contained in the stockpiles which exceed the annual tonnes to be milled as per the mine plan in the following year are classified as non-current in the statement of financial position.

Currently at Sukari, low grade low (0.4 to 0.5g/t) open pit stockpile material above the cut-off grade of 0.4g/t has been reclassified to non-current assets as these ore tonnes are not planned to be processed within the next twelve months.

The net realisable value of mining stockpiles is determined with reference to estimated contained gold and market gold prices applicable.

Mining stockpiles which are blended together with future ore mined when fed to the plant are assessed as an input to the gold production process to ensure the combined stockpiles are carried at the lower of cost and net realisable value.

Mining stockpiles which are not blended in production are assessed separately to ensure they are carried at the lower of cost and net realisable value, although no such stockpiles are currently held.

from page 196 here:

https://www.centamin.com/media/2384/centamin-plc-annual-report-2020-web-ready-secured.pdf

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other grade related details include:

- a cut-off grade of .3 g/t is used for reporting the open pit mineral reserve estimate (whereas the underground reserve estimate cut-off grade is 1 g/t )

- open pit and stockpiles cut off grade for reporting is .4 g/t

- open pit mineral reserve estimate includes 7.5Mt at .4 g/t for .1Moz gold using a .2 g/t cut off for the dump leach

- underground cut-off grade for reporting is .4 g/t

Quite so Rebess!

I should have been more careful as I remember some time ago the same issue came up while we were all talking production figures.

Serves me right for just punching numbers into google search.

Hi bobliz35,
I'll try adding to your arithmetic equation but don't hold me to the numbers as I'm not any more qualified!

18,800,000 tons x .46g = 8,648,000g
8,648,000g / 28.35 = 305,049 ounces

All this stockpiled ore would definitely be included in the reserve ounce total.

I suppose the point of my historical review was meant to illustrate the ability (or better yet optionality) that exists in utilizing Centamin's own load & haul equipment.

Given the stockpile grows by 30% annually it might have been possible (but maybe not preferable) to utilize that spare capacity to focus on the area Capital Drilling is under contract to remove.

Why this option wasn't chosen - and all the extra costs spared shareholders I cannot say - only that perhaps this was in anticipation of Capital's fleet also being used to work the satellites.

Although, even if this were to be the reason the plant cannot process any more ore than Centamin's own load & haul equipment currently handles - meaning any new satellite ore would just add to the excess.

Second guessing management's decisions over the years has turned out to be a fool's errand but what is certain is that Capital Drilling now has established a sizeable equipment presence in Egypt (and well on their way to paying off this new fleet)

Maybe this is Centamin's preferred way of training & weeding out future employees without directly hiring them and firing them? Maybe a processing plant expansion is coming sooner than we think?

Bottom Line: Capital's fleet will need something to do after they complete the 'transformational' Centamin contract. What that might be (and how it impacts Centamin shareholders' profit) for better or for worse is what concerns me. Cheers

In newly unlocked valuation for existing shareholders of the parent company (think Centamin's West Africa Assets) all in less than 12 months from the date of spin-out

Viatris (NASDAQ:VTRS)
GXO Logistics (NYSE:GXO)
Vimeo (NASDAQ:VMEO)
Cognyte Software (NASDAQ:CGNT)
Topicus.com (TOI:TSXV)
Apartment Income REIT (NYSE:AIRC)

I hope Centamin will (has) considered this method of unlocking shareholder value for some or all of its West African portfolio.

Centamin now has over one and a half year's worth of ore on the stockpile (as the mill processes around 12 Mt/year )

Q2 2021 increased to 18.8Mt at 0.46g/t Au average grade

Q4 2020 increased to 17.4Mt at 0.47g/t Au

Q2 2020 increased to 15.8Mt at 0.47g/t Au

Q4 2019 increased to 13.8Mt at 0.46g/t Au

Q2 2019 increased to 12.3Mt at 0.45g/t Au

Q3 2018 increased to 10.13Mt at 0.47g/t Au

So the decision to drill out the greater Sukari concession to stockpile some higher grade is timely — as they're currently amassing 30% more ore than processed each year.

On the other hand one could argue with that much spare blast & haul capacity the Capital
Drilling contract to expedite the trouble area overburden has more to do with future plans (than current needs?)

Canadian miner Fortuna Silver Mines has approved the $173.5-million construction of the Séguéla project, set to become its fifth operating mine, with first gold by mid-2023.

With a nine-year mine life in reserves, the openpit mine will produce 130 000 oz/y of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $797/oz in the initial six years.

Fortuna acquired Séguéla, in Côte d’Ivoire, when it bought Roxgold earlier this year.

Bulk earthworks contractors have been mobilized and will break ground at the plant site in October, with the accommodation village expected to be completed in November.

The anticipated construction schedule is about 20 months, with ramp-up to nameplate capacity expected in the third quarter of 2023.

**Parallel to construction, Fortuna will continue with drilling programmes to test multiple remaining targets on the Séguéla property, where over the last 12 months, the exploration team has delivered gold discoveries at the Koula, Sunbird and Gabbro North prospects.

The Séguéla project has a net present value, at a 5% discount, of $380-million and an aftertax internal rate of return of 49%, using a $1 600/oz gold price

https://fortunasilver.com/investors/news/fortuna-announces-positive-construction-decision-for-its-seguela-gold-project-in-cote-divoire/

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My Thoughts:

As a long term shareholder I would love to hear that Centamin has expedited the launch date for our Cote D'Ivoire mine.

Fortuna's declaration** 'Parallel to construction Fortuna will continue with the drilling program' sounds like a concept beyond our reach.

You could be right MrBond - but I suspect it's just a brand new contract to add another decline.

I've noticed at other companies management will choose to impart a little competition between crews/companies. Then there is some incentive to outdo the other in terms of safety, meters completed etc. Either way we don't have long to wait. November the work begins.

1st --> An on-site meeting held at Egypt's Sukari mine (one week ago) see photo and post here:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6846445587785666560/

Members of the QME #mining #contracting team together with LTMS in Egypt at the Centamin Sukari #gold mine for ongoing discussions for a pending project.
#mine #tunnel #tunneling #miningequipment #rentalequipment #egypt #project

2nd --> An open call for applicants (posted yesterday)

Mining Positions Available (FIFO)

A QME & LTMS collaboration team are looking for experienced mining personnel for a gold mine project in North Africa, starting in phases from November to January, initially for a one year contract. Rotation is 6 weeks on, 3 weeks off. Positions include Mine and Maintenance Supervisors, Jumbo Drillers, Longhole Drillers, Cablebolters, Shotcreters, LHD Operators and Fitters.

Interested people should send a CV to careers@qme.ie

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My Thoughts:

So is this:

a) a REPLACEMENT for the current underground contractors Barminco

or

b) an ADDITION

Barminco's has had the Sukari contract a long time. It might be more plausible that a new decline is being created from the open pit level to accelerate the underground ounce contribution i.e. get the volume up from around 0.7 Mt to 2Mt (see here: https://perentigroup.com/blog/projects/sukari/ )

PS this new outfit QME is headquartered in Ireland - which would suit Mr Horgan quite well !

A Twitter post by David Burton:

This article was a couple of months ago on @CentaminPlc at around the same level as today.

“…Is a higher Golden Bid on the cards for Centamin?…”

I notice vague bid talk on the “Boards for #CEY and with #Gold making a move up, more upside than down?

https://twitter.com/DavidBurton1971/status/1443854637375934479
https://total-market-solutions.com/2021/04/centamin-plc/

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My Thoughts:
Posts on Twitter about a possible new suitor for Centamin are far and few between - so when one pops up I get nervous... especially after the mini blitz of investor updates we've just received

One further thought - Mr Horgan did drop a 'control your enthusiasm' bomb during yesterday's Retail Investor Presentation that I don't think was discussed by our chat group yet - He said something like 'we don't expect the open pit resource to double...'

I thought that was curious considering the recent announcement by KL re: their Detour Lake mine tripling its open pit resources over the last 8 months. I value honesty. I do. But sometimes I prefer a little unbridled optimism, too. Especially since we're half the price we wuz just 12 months ago

Sawiris' connections with Endeavour and his/their desire to screw Centamin over needs no primer for LTH's but for the rest let me fill in the blanks.

Mr Koshman is the president and founder of Red Sea Resources - a Canadian based exploration company that was awarded several concessions in Egypt during the last bid round. Mr Koshman is ALSO the corporate development head & company director of Altair Resources - the company that just 'obtained' Centamin's relinquished Burkina Faso assets containing an estimated 1.3 million ounces of gold (remember those three unnamed arms-length Burkinabes who were paid off?)

I suspected Sawiris was somehow involved and this photo seems to confirm it.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6849749750917414912/

Not only is Mr Koshman visiting Sawiris on his home turf but they are both seen schmoozing with key management figures of Egypt's Gold Pyramid Group - yet another shadowy player in the Egyptian gold mining concession arena.

I tell ya - whenever Sawiris gets involved you can bet under-the-table dealings have been in play... the guy employs unscrupulous business figures to keep his own hands clean.

New Business Development manager (from February 2017 to June 2020) is now...

Principal Geologist at Nautilus (a division of EBDAA Egypt ) these two sister companies applied for several concessions in the last Egyptian bid round and won the 'Olymp' concession which is right adjascent to Sukari's adjascent concession 'Nugrus'

see map here: https://ebdaagoldmine.com/exploration/

So this must mean (based on his departure date) Centamin's top exploration guy aided EBDAA in picking out which concession they should bid on in Egypt while he was an employee at Centamin! No wonder Mr Horgan sacked him!

And it wasn't just Centamin's former Exploration Head but this guy too --> Mohamed El-Fazary : Centamin's FORMER Supply Chain Superintendent at Sukari !

see Bio's here: https://ebdaagoldmine.com/board-management/

When our CEO Mr Horgan talks about spending the last year or so cleaning up and putting the right people into key positions he isn't making an overstatement!

Going forward I would guess keeping staff loyal in Egypt could be an issue. We have a veritable gold rush going on - given Barrick, B2Gold, Altus and the others all eager to strike it rich...

As a side note - I really enjoyed today's Retail Investor presentation. Mr Horgan is representing our company well and I hope all the changes he brings will equal success as we start growing.

Further note - Mr Bailie is currently Cora Gold's Head Of Exploration - I suspect he doesn't get out in the field much these days but has more of an advisory (spy, mole?) role...

https://www.coragold.com/management/

As we're about to hear from Centamin management again this week I thought we shareholders might as well think about the future of Sukari. To that end, today's merger announcement by Kirkland Lake and Agnico Eagle make a good starting point.

Background

Word is over the past two years Barrick, Newcrest, Newmont and Agnico Eagle all had conversations with Kirkland Lake regarding a tie-up

The most recent negotiations (it is said) involved a friendly Barrick deal which was to be announced at the Denver Gold Forum but it fell through because of a run up in the KL share price (something about loose lips and possible insider trading)

So on Sept 2, 2021 KL made a strategic announcement, declaring its Detour Lake open pit resource had nearly tripled to 14,718,000 ounces (as of June 30, 3021) — "an increase of 10,061,000 ounces from the previous estimate of 4,657,000 ounces at an average grade of 0.80 grams per tonne"

Keep in mind the last resource estimate was not very old - it was released December 31, 2020

I'll just say it's incredible that many ounces can be 'discovered' in 6 months.

Now have a look at the geographical layout of Detour Lake here:

https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1442984041066549253

Not only has the resource been extended deeper (yellow outline) but the once untested divide called 'Saddle Zone' now joins the larger pit with the smaller.

Now look at Sukari — SO FAR we know the plan is to eventually mine a smaller Cleopatra pit along side (but still unattached) to the larger main pit. In terms of overall length and depth Detour & Sukari are very similar — even the bulk low grade ore values

Bottom Line:
The day is coming when ALL the extension and infill drilling at Sukari is compiled into a new resource estimate and the current pit outline is expanded. In fact management probably already have a good deal of that data just waiting to be shared.

Will Sukari triple its open pit resources like Detour?
Will the update come just prior to another unsolicited offer?

We'll need to trust our new management team to pick the best time for Sukari 2.0 's unveiling.

Goldgnome - oi mate, you stole my thunder!

Heads up, I'm going to basically repeat what you said in my next post re: getting the resource update out at the right moment - because it bears repeating.

A 'Merger Of Equals' ?
- @agnicoeagle loaded with debt
- @KirklandLakeGld debt free
- upon merger $858 million in cash from KL shareholders will transfer to AE shareholders
- given a ZERO PREMIUM this deal is NOT in the best interest of KL
- the only winner? New Star-Struck CEO Tony Makuch

https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1442947185197260802

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Not sure if any of Centamin's shareholders are invested in Kirkland Lake or Agnico Eagle but here's my take on the situation...

PS
I'll share more on how eerily similar KL's 'Detour Gold' open pit scenario is to Sukari's - I trust our 'reveal' the real resource moment will be very different when it arrives!

Agnico Eagle to buy Canadian gold rival in $13.4B deal - all stock - 1% 'Premium'

touted as a merger of equals...

The merged miner will use Agnico’s name and have a board and management team drawing from both companies. Tony Makuch, currently Kirkland’s chief executive officer, will take the top job once the deal is completed, while Agnico CEO Sean Boyd will become executive chair.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/agnico-eagle-to-buy-canadian-gold-rival-in-13-4b-deal-1.1658434

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My Thoughts:
So what is in it for shareholders? Nothing. Most serious gold mining investors were already invested in both.
Bottom Line: It's becoming merge or shrink and become more irrelevant.

Also, Kirkland buying Detour a year or so ago was a survival move - allowing itself to be swallowed for ZERO benefit to shareholders is another survival move IMO

All I can say is thank goodness for the uncertainty in Egypt (court case, pit wall movement, etc) - it's kept (keeping) us from a similar fate (my apologies to those Centamin short term holders still underwater)