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Chile’s President Gabriel Boric said on Thursday he would nationalize the country’s lithium industry, the world’s second largest producer of the metal essential in electric vehicle batteries, to boost its economy and protect its environment.

The shock move in the country with the world’s largest lithium reserves would in time transfer control of Chile’s vast lithium operations from industry giants SQM
and Albemarle to a separate state-owned company.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/21/chile-plans-to-nationalize-its-vast-lithium-industry.html

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Now imagine GOLD shooting up to $ 2800 ++

Don't think poor countries wouldn't nationalize their gold in situ at some strategic dollar value for the sake of 'national security'

After a “year on the ground” with the combined Elemental Altus Royalties, STEVEN J. POULTON, pictured here, and FREDERICK BELL are assaying an expansive folder of metals projects across Africa, the Americas, Canada and Australia.

The two, Steven, 46, and Frederick, 36, say they might transact an Egypt gold project via spin-off, mirroring a recent Morocco spinoff into a small London pub-co explorer. Or a clean spinoff into a new equity (shell). Or via a joint venture or multiple JV.

Elemental Altus ELE ELEMF controls something like 2,000 square km of concessions/licenses in Egypt. I just talked with the two, who are based in London.

“We are discussing the overall strategy with our company,” Steven says. "It's a timely question."

If the Arabian-Nubian Shield, with Egypt on one side and Saudi Arabia on another, and large miner Barrick all over the place, catch investor heat as precious metals prices (we believe) continue their climb, anything with an EGYPT address probably would appreciate.

Centamin Plc, a $2 BILLION U.K. gold miner, is the marquee miner in EGYPT. Elemental Altus also has marquee status of a sort in Egypt: La Mancha Fund, owned by Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris, is an ELE investor.

Elemental Altus in addition to Wadi Dubur in EGYPT's Eastern Desert, has licenses in Ethiopia’s Tigray (where I have not been in 8 years), among other ‘Shield’ properties.

In Egypt, Heye Daun (also pub-co Osino Resources OSI OSIIF in Namibia) has kept his private Lotus Gold active with 10 blocks, 1,700 square kilometers, in the same area as Elemental Altus: Eastern Desert.

Pictured here: Lotus (named after the Egyptian white lily) drilling at site.

More to come. I have been purchasing ELE shares.

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My Thoughts:
I have not been purchasing ELE shares.
Interesting to note Elemental Altus Royalties CFO David Baker was the key person behind Centamin's defence team from the hostile takeover attempt by Endeavour Mining while he was working at Tamesis Partners in London. https://www.tamesispartners.com/

Now he's working for an Endeavour associate company with Naguib Sawiris as the main investor in both... Mr Sawiris is persistent and if he can't beat you he'll get you to join him, eventually

And Peter Williams (now a non-executive director at Elemental Altus ) was a founding director of Ampella Mining and was present during the exploration/delineation of both the Konkera/Batie West deposit and the Doropo deposit - the latter still under consideration by Centamin

https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidbakermining/
https://www.elementalaltus.com/investors/presentation/
https://us5.campaign-archive.com/?e=[UNIQID]&u=d3a1417c9ff35564e0ddc31e9&id=0c6bea06bb

No #China did not implement capital controls overnight, you are correct on that front. But in order for China to sustain its economic growth it was forced into unproductive investments.

Note that #China’s GDP is an input number and not an output figure like in western economies. National accounts are based on data collected by local governments which are rewarded for meeting growth targets; hence, they have an incentive to skew to the upside the data they provide to the Central Government.

China has been forced to increase its M2 at unprecedented levels to sustain that growth (currently $40 trillion with a GDP of 18 trillion). This money can’t leave because of the capital controls in place.

Starting July 2017, banks and financial institutions in China have to report all domestic and overseas cash transactions of RMB 50,000 (US$7,600) or more; the previous threshold was RMB 200,000 (US$30,350). Any overseas transfers by individuals of US$10,000 or more need to be reported.

Additionally, those seeking to transfer money will need to explain how they plan to use the foreign currency and fill out an online form pledging not to use foreign exchange to purchase overseas property, securities, life insurance, or similar products.

Please do the following exercise and tell me what you find. Go to the PBoC and look at the imports exports between China and Hong Kong. Then go to the HKMA and do the same. The numbers should be the same… they aren’t

So the internal ballon (GDP) keeps being inflated by keeping capital locked in China.

When I say China needs desperately USDs it’s relative to its M2. FX reserves ($3,1 trillion) to M2 is now at less than 8%. The Asian Tigers in 1997 collapsed when this ratio fell bellow 25%.

China’s real estate is valued at more than $60 trillion and banks have only been provisioning for less than 2% - and we know what has been happening in that space. Real estate directly and directly constitutes close to 30% of GDP.

Having said all this, the @BrookingsInst , in a research paper published in March 2019, estimated that #China's GDP growth from 2008-2016 could be 1.7% (annually) lower than publicly acknowledged. You can do the math…

https://twitter.com/mnicoletos/status/1644547047909912576

---------------------------->>>

Bottom Line - China is a black box of government controlled economic 'performance' as in a 'stage show'. China cannot allow the renminbi to become globally important because they need strict capital controls in place keep the affluent Chinese from moving it out of country i.e. converting it into alternate currencies for 'safe keeping' . Like it or not the EU, UK & US will dominate the currency realm simply because they are free economies - to the extent any economy can be called free. That is why gold is favored by the Chinese people - it is a bit of self autonomy under the hand of an all influencing authoritarian regime.

Spoonington,

yes , the EMRA can dispute anything and everything, most importantly for Centamin shareholders would be any erroneously made deductions to THEIR share of the profit - so if the capital project (in this case stripping excess waste - over and above the historical mine plan) gets clawed back it could take years of installments to pay back. Where does that pay back $$ come from? The BEST scenario would be that it came from excess free cash flow i.e. dividends - otherwise $$ we don't have, bank debt.

some excerpts from Centamin's full year 2022 results - page 44,45 :

Any variation between payments made during the year (which are based on the Company’s estimates) and the SGM audited financial statements, may result in a balance due and payable to EMRA or advances to be offset against future distributions.

This will be reflected as an amount attributable to the non-controlling interest in SGM on the statement of financial position and statement of changes in equity.

EMRA and PGM benefit from advance distributions of profit share which are made on a weekly or fortnightly basis and proportionately in accordance with the terms of the CA.

Future distributions will consider ongoing cash flows, historical costs that are still to be recovered and any future capital expenditure. All profit share payments will be reconciled against SGM’s audited June financial statements for current and future periods.

Legal title of all operating assets of PGM will pass to EMRA when cost recovery is completed. The right of use of all fixed and movable assets remains with PGM and SGM.

page 56
Included within non-current other creditors and current other creditors and accruals is $7.3m (2021: $9.8m) and $4.9m (2021: $2.4m) respectively in relation to the remaining instalments of a $17.6m settlement agreement signed with EMRA in 2021.

By its nature, elements of the cost recovery mechanism within the Concession Agreement are subject to interpretation and ongoing audits by EMRA. It is possible that future settlement agreements may be agreed with EMRA in relation to historic items.

The change in mine plan* has necessitated an increase in stripping activity during the year (more than has been experienced in the past) and includes activity from both internal and external parties. As a result, there has been a significant increase in the stripping activity. Based on the calculations performed the amount capitalised to the balance sheet for 2022 is US$141 million (2021: $59m).**

Capitalisation occurs when the strip ratio exceeds the life of mine strip ratio for that stage.

Only the costs related to the excess stripping are capitalised. In line with the accelerated stripping programme (2022-2024) we expect to be above the life of mine strip ratio, resulting in a larger quantum to be capitalised to the balance sheet.

--------------------------------->>

Note : the last Life Of Mine Plan LOM 43-101 for Sukari had an effective date of 30 June, 2015

https://www.centamin.com/media/2317/cey_sukari_43-101-technical-report-231015_final.pdf

The most recent year end presentation states that a new LOM 43-101 is scheduled to be issued the second half of 2023 , but the decision Mr Horgan made to remove a giant pile of material from the open pit was made in 2021 .
That means:
1) the decision to move the giant pile of waste in 2021 was made without an updated plan, or
2) it was made using the old 2015 plan, or
3) an updated plan exists, it just hasn't been given to stakeholders to review

If #1 is true then, bad. If #2 is true then, bad. If #3 is true then, what's in it that the market won't like that it's being withheld so long?

More importantly, the EMRA should have been given an advance opportunity to review the increased waste clearing contract based on a new LOM 43-101. The fact that it was not given that opportunity means the EMRA has every right to question the decision - and audit the decision ( retroactively refuse to allow the excess waste clearing costs to be capitalized i.e. cost recovery ) meaning Centamin shareholders could be on the hook to reimburse those costs** to the EMRA. A very, very expensive outcome for shareholders.

Capitalised deferred stripping costs are included in ‘Mine Development Properties’, within property, plant, and equipment.

These form part of the total investment in the relevant cash generating unit, which is reviewed for impairment if events or a change in circumstances indicate that the carrying value may not be recoverable.

The stripping costs associated with the current period operations are expensed during that period and any stripping activity cost associated with producing future benefit is deferred on the balance sheet and amortised over the period that the benefit is received i.e., is classified as capital expenditure, creating a Deferred Stripping asset.

The pit components are the separate stages of the open pit mine. For each component, the stripping ratio is determined, and costs are capitalised if the stripping ratio in the year for that component is greater than the overall LOM stripping ratio for that component.

The change in mine plan* has necessitated an increase in stripping activity during the year (more than has been experienced in the past) and includes activity from both internal and external parties. As a result, there has been a significant increase in the stripping activity. Based on the calculations performed the amount capitalised to the balance sheet for 2022 is US$141 million (2021: $59m).

Capitalisation occurs when the strip ratio exceeds the life of mine strip ratio for that stage.

Only the costs related to the excess stripping are capitalised. In line with the accelerated stripping programme (2022-2024) we expect to be above the life of mine strip ratio, resulting in a larger quantum to be capitalised to the balance sheet.

--->>

Included within non-current other creditors and current other creditors and accruals is $7.3m (2021: $9.8m) and $4.9m (2021: $2.4m) respectively in relation to the remaining instalments of a $17.6m settlement agreement signed with EMRA in 2021. ***

By its nature, elements of the cost recovery mechanism within the Concession Agreement are subject to interpretation and ongoing audits by EMRA.

It is possible that future settlement agreements may be agreed with EMRA in relation to historic items.

The Directors have assessed that it is not probable that any additional settlements with EMRA will be required as at 31 December 2022, and therefore no additional provisions have been recognised within these financial statements

pg 56

---->

Questions:
1)What was the settlement agreement for $17.6 million signed with the EMRA in 2021?? *** (see above)
2) The EMRA can look back at historic capital costs deducted & audit them (like the massive waste contract Centamin is currenty undertaking) & deem them inadmissible - requiring a settlement payment (as referred to above) Who's to say this won't occur?
3) Centamin refers to a 'change in mine plan'* above but as far as I know the mine plan hasn't changed since 2017 - where's the new mine plan? Why hasn't it

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