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With mainly Berenberg employees

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/berenberg-conference-and-events-952398215_yesterday-we-hosted-the-annual-berenberg-activity-7077918193209499648-NMnK?

posted 9h ago

Yesterday, we hosted the annual Berenberg Thematic Mining Afternoon and Summer Drinks Reception at the Marylebone Hotel. The afternoon consisted of two panels; 'The Energy Transition Theme: Assessing Where We Are in The Journey' and 'Funding The Next Generation Of Mines To Drive The Energy Transition', followed by a drinks reception in the courtyard.

Thank you to our excellent panelists and to everyone who joined the event.

First panel: Paul Gait (Anglo American), James Whiteside (Wood Mackenzie), James Rutherford (Centamin PLC)

Second panel: Marc Bishop Lafleche (Ecora Resources PLC), George Cheveley (Ninety One), Menno Sanderse (Rio Tinto)

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but also reps from Centamin's 7th largest shareholder Ninety One

https://ninetyone.com/en/united-kingdom

But to be honest, nobody knows what Egypt will do when they are faced with insolvency. Some articles from the past:

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https://egyptindependent.com/egypt-govt-bill-prepares-companies-for-re-nationalization/

Egypt Govt Bill Prepares Companies For Re-Nationalization

October 30, 2018

Companies that have handed down judicial rulings on their de-privatization include: Nile Cotton Ginning, Tanta Flax, Omar Effendi, Steam Boilers, Shebin El Koum Spinning and Weaving, Arab Foreign Trade, and Simo Paper.

Egypt’s Ministry of the Public Business Sector has prepared a draft law to eliminate the entanglements of companies returning to state ownership.

The law, consisting of only two articles, stipulates that re-nationalized companies should be referred to the Investment and Dispute Resolution Committee, to consider how to compensate investors who bought them in good faith.

story continues on link

---------------------->>>>

How Cairo Cracked Down On One Of Egypt’s Leading Businessmen -Inside the government and military’s squeeze on Safwan Thabet and his dairy company

Weeks before Thabet’s arrest, one of the senior officials tasked with overseeing new state-led milk production projects conducted several visits to one of Juhayna’s factories. During these visits, this official was allowed in on the how-to of managing the factory and the modernization of its equipment and operation systems, a second political source tells Mada Masr.

According to this source, Thabet appears to have been approached with a proposal to think about merging some of Juhayna’s factories with the new state-led initiative as a gesture of real support to food industries. Thabet treated this talk as mere chat rather than a request, the source says.

These visits coincided with Sisi’s repeated directives from last May and until early September to the prime minister, the agriculture minister and a number of other officials including Major General Mostafa Amin, the director of the Armed Forces National Service Products Organization, to establish a comprehensive integrated production and collection system all over the country. The plan included 200 milk collection centers.

Sisi drove these points home once again in remarks made just hours before Thabet’s arrest,

https://www.madamasr.com/en/2021/05/05/feature/politics/milking-juhayna-for-all-its-worth/

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these are not the actions of a free market supporting democratic regime, to say otherwise is only to falsely reassure Centamin investors all is well

and the granddaddy of all Egyptian nationalizations

On July 26, 1956, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser announced the nationalization of the Suez Canal Company, the joint British-French enterprise which had owned and operated the Suez Canal since its construction in 1869

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/suez#:~:text=On%20July%2026%2C%2019

Is not whether the US dollar is on the verge of devaluation - but rather what is the state of Egypt's currency. To this end - an article about Egypt's dire need for income :

------------------>>>>

The Suez Canal Privatization Conundrum

MAY 29, 2023

Selling some port facilities to private or foreign investors would take the country into the uncertain waters of free market economics. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi is aware of this, but he has no other solution. At a recent summit in Dubai, he declared: “Egypt needs a trillion dollars per year. Do we have the money? No. Do we have half? No. Do we have a quarter? No.”

The Gulf monarchies have understood the gravity of the Egyptian economic situation, which has become so dire that the government is now advising the poorest to survive on chicken feet.

The Suez Canal’s profitability is not under debate. In fact, after carving out a new river section for supertanker transit, profits surged 25 percent, reaching $7.9 billion last year. This upward trajectory has continued throughout the first months of 2023, with a robust 35 percent rise in the first quarter.

Development work on the canal is almost nonstop. The latest project to widen the waterway by an additional 10 kilometers of bidirectional traffic (between terminals 122 and 132) is nearing completion. It will allow an additional six vessels to pass through every day. More ships mean more revenue. On March 13 this year, Cairo celebrated a record number of vessels passing through in one day: 107

It has long been an unspoken tradition for the state to reward senior officers with prestigious positions in large companies when they retire. The current chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, Osama Rabie, is an admiral and the former commander of the Egyptian Navy. Though Mr. Rabie is a widely accepted and respected leader in his role, there are instances in other organizations where individuals have been assigned roles for which they lack proven competence. The negative impact of such placements on the efficiency and performance of these organizations is readily apparent. The connections between the formal and informal economies are plentiful and often hard to trace.

The privatization of the Suez Canal is both vital and precarious, given the current economic climate in Egypt. Debt alone accounts for 54 percent of public expenditures and domestic consumption is on a downward trend. Cairo is racing against the clock to implement necessary changes.

--------------------------------->>>

Centamin investors - let that sink in - in Egypt "debt alone accounts for 54% of public expenditures" . Stop wasting your time worrying (or fantasizing) that the US will go bust - your investment is in Egypt. How would an Egyptian default impact Centamin? Is nationalization of Sukari a real possibility?

article continues here:

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/suez-canal-privatization/

4hrs ago

Mission day 2 continues with a roundtable discussion hosted by Centamin PLC on Mining with the special guest speaker 𝐇𝐄 𝐓𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐤 𝐄𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚, 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐏𝐞𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐞𝐮𝐦 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬, 𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭.

Welcoming Remarks of the session are introduced by HE Gareth Bayley, British Ambassador to Egypt and Martin Horgan, CEO, Centamin.

HE Tarek El Molla, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources briefed the audience on Mining and Exploring the Egyptian Nubian Shield.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲: Judith Mosely, Non-Executive Director of Blackrock World Mining Trust, Eldorado Gold Corp, and Galiano Gold Inc

HE Tarek El Molla, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and focused on 𝐭𝐰𝐨 𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐬 :

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐨𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲'𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐠𝐨𝐚𝐥𝐬

• 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜-𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐨𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bebaegypt_happeningabrnow-growinggreen-greeninvestment-activity-7075056517187575808-j8B9

----------------------------------------------->>>>

meanwhile, in the real world Egypt's rate of inflation in May was 40.8% up from 38.6% in April

https://twitter.com/DailyNewsEgypt/status/1667863476436443137

100's of tons of fodder is tied up in its ports cuz they don't have the $$ to pay their suppliers

https://twitter.com/DailyNewsEgypt/status/1668660578901012492

contractors for the glitzy new Cairo skyscrapers haven't been paid - the list goes on and on - but these EMRA bozo's are talking about green hydrogen and fairy dust eating delicacies at the Ritz

and oh ya - Centamin shareholders paid a big chunk of the entire delegation's expenses by choosing to be BEBA's top event sponsor - woohoo!

Can cost you your freedom. Luckily Mr Pickard sensed the heat and jumped out of the fire.

----------------------------->>>

12:40 AM · Jun 14, 2023

https://twitter.com/BobPickard/status/1668871011968663553

The AIIB, seen by some as a Chinese rival to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, was founded in 2016 to finance railways and other infrastructure. It has 106 member governments including most Asian countries and Australia, Canada, Russia, France and Britain. Japan and the United States aren’t members.

Pickard, who worked for AIIB for 15 months, said in a statement on Twitter that resigning was his only course as a “patriotic Canadian.” He complained that the bank was dominated by “Communist Party hacks” who were “like an in-house KGB or Gestapo or Stasi” — the secret police of the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany and Communist-era East Germany, respectively.

The Beijing-headquartered bank “has one of the most toxic cultures imaginable,” Pickard wrote. “I don’t believe that my country’s interests are served by its AIIB membership.”

The resignation comes at a time when ruling Communist Party leader Xi Jinping is tightening control over China's government and pushing private sector companies to align with the party's development plans.

“Mr. Pickard’s recent public comments and characterization of the bank are baseless and disappointing,” the AIIB said in the email. It said the bank “supported and empowered him” during his tenure.

“We are proud of our multilateral mission and have a diverse international team representing 65 different nationalities,” the bank said.

The AIIB president, Jin Liqun, is Chinese. Vice presidents include a Briton, a Russian, an Indian and a German.

Pickard said he was “concerned for my security” and didn’t post his announcement until he arrived in Japan.

The United States and other governments have warned their citizens of an increased risk of being arbitrarily detained in China or blocked from leaving the country.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-quits-chinese-founded-development-bank-complains-communist-party-hacks-dominate-it-1.1933090

Things are getting worse as one of the members of the richest family in Egypt and Africa announced his intentions to steer his investments toward Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Morocco. This sends a message that the investment atmosphere in the country is not safe, and that things are moving in a negative direction. There has also been a decline in the size of the private sector of the economy from 62 per cent to 21 per cent within 10 years, according to official data.

What is getting the situation even worse is the government imposing restrictions on the movement of imports and exports, imposing more taxes and monopolising vital sectors in favour of parties close to the authority. In addition, companies affiliated with the military institution enjoy tax and customs privileges that increase the volume of their gains compared to private sector companies that suffer from market fluctuations and price discrepancies, and not receiving their dues owed by the government.

An informed source in a major contracting company who spoke to Middle East Monitor on condition of anonymity, said that the company did not receive its dues for implementing government projects from last September, which is 8 months ago, causing salary delays and layoffs of part of the staff, and a number of projects have stopped.

A second source at Hassan Allam Contracting Company confirmed that the company did not receive its financial dues for projects implemented in the New Administrative Capital (east of Cairo). He added that the owner of the company had received a government offer to obtain a piece of state land in exchange for his frozen dues.

The current crisis which, according to Sawiris's statements, caused the collapse of the private sector, is mainly due to the growing control of the Egyptian army over vital economic sectors and the expansion of its projects. Military projects have been expanded to include agriculture, tourism, entertainment, health, hotels, roads, bridges and infrastructure, residential buildings, gas stations, iron and cement factories, food industries, dairy, meat, poultry, fish and others.

No one really knows the precise size of the economic empire of the military establishment in the country. Army related companies are not being subject to any oversight by Parliament or the Central Auditing Organisation (a supervisory body), neither do their revenues get added to the Egyptian treasury.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230516-sawiris-is-sounding-the-alarm-are-investors-fleeing-egypt/

------------------------------------------>>>>

At this rate, is foreign investment in Egypt really safe? What's to stop the military from expropriating any new gold discoveries - esp. if they are large ?

Since it's June and the Doropo PFS is due to be released it's probably a good time to review what we know so far.

The following are excerpts taken from the 2021 PEA "Update" released last year.

"The resource and reserve estimates have been updated from previous studies while the metallurgy remains unchanged."

"Gold grades within the mineralised zones are generally very variable and exhibit positively skewed grade distributions with relatively high Coefficients of Variation (CVs)."

"Processing rates are est. 4.0 Mtpa for fresh, semi-refractory ore requiring flotation with

intensive concentrate treatment and 4.5 Mtpa of blended oxide/transition free milling ore to

produce 1.96 Moz over an operating life of 13 years with average gold production of 208

koz/annum for the first 5 years."

"The initial capital cost, inclusive of working capital and contingency is estimated to be

US$ 275million (based on a like project) with all in sustaining costs (AISC) of US$ 904/oz."

"The project is predicted to produce, at a gold price of US$1,450/oz an after tax a NPV of

US $234 million and IRR of 21% increasing to US $487million and IRR of 33% at a consensus gold price of US$ 1,829/oz"

"The evaluation method considers the Project has been evaluated on a 100% ownership basis, with no debt financing."**

----------------------------------------->>>

Questions:

a) How much will inflation add to the est. cost to build?

b) If inflation makes the original plan too costly - will the fresh, semi-refractory ore be stockpiled until a later date ?

c) why was last year's "update" still evaluated without 'debt financing' parameters?? **

see page 10 here: https://www.centamin.com/media/2439/doropo-project-pea-report-2021_01_updates_190921.pdf

The most important part of postponing the PFS release was economics. How then did management not include an updated financing model with revised IRR ? Even before interest rates started rising it was clear there wasn't a path to finance Doropo out of free cash flow.

It's a huge oversight to not include debt financing in Centamin's revised PEA calculations, nobody does that unless you have $400 million in the bank ready to self-fund or an abundance of free cash flow not going to dividends...

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