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Believe it or not this article appeared in Egypt's elbarima news Aug 2, 2023 (here's some highlights - keep in mind Mulla is the main go-between with the EMRA & Centamin)

Despite his tolerant features and his “jovial” smile, which indicates a good heart and complete calmness, he is quick to anger, does not accept repeated mistakes, decisive in his practical dealings

Organized to the point that he gets angry if he finds anything that is not in its proper place and location. He sanctifies married life and helps his wife in arranging the house. With “Ahmed”, his only son, a father and friend, he has the ability to deal with his children by being kind to them.

During his tenure at the Foreign Trade Prosecution at the General Petroleum Corporation Mulla was able to reach very satisfactory understandings with major international companies that supply petroleum products and crude oil

Mulla also worked to attend international mining conferences to attract the largest mining companies in the world including Barrick, B2 Gold, and others

The law regulating the activities of the gas market the most important achievements of the era of Mulla, which will be followed by the transformation of Egypt into an international regional center for energy trading, increase in revenues and improvement of the economic situation

Mulla was able during 7 years to achieve that had not been achieved for more than 25 years, to transform the Egyptian oil sector

He sanctifies married life and the satisfaction of his parents and their prayers, the secret of his success in his work. His favorite food is “moussaka”

Mulla is born in the sign of Gemini, and the people of this sign can see two completely different personalities in them, which he expresses by saying: “As much as I am nervous when I calmly guide the one I got intolerant of, and when I yell, my voice remains loud

This kind-hearted personality was reflected in his relationship with his wife: “I am one of the men who loves the house, not just the kitchen."

His father is the ambassador, the heroic fighter, the righteous son of Egypt, Ahmed Abdel Qader Al-Mulla, who used to work as the consul of Egypt in Palestine, and it was fate that one of his periods of diplomatic work in Jerusalem in 1967 was the war period, so he remained steadfast in his position, neither retreating nor retreating in the face of death and the Israeli army

The article goes on here https://elbarima.com/%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%88%d8%ac%d9%87-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%ae%d8%b1-%d9%84%d9%80%d9%88%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d8%aa%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%84-%d8%b7%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84/

My takeaways:

1) WTF

2) Didn't know Mulla was once head of foreign trade prosecution, probably means Centamin doesn't want to f*ck with him

3) All in all sounds like a plea from Mulla to stay in his role (or a thank you very much, now goodbye) depending on who submitted the article for print

I talk about Centamin and the country in which it operates.

You simply talk about me.

Do you not see the irony?

If you don't have anything to add about the company, good or bad, fine. But to launch a personal attack against my credibility, opine about my personal vendetta, or my apparent dislike for Egypt - just grow up. Or better yet, grow a pair.

I'm available should you want to come out of the anonymous cloak you bravely talk behind.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-lawson-98619370/

Siko,

Sorry you feel like a victim.

I pointed out Egypt's 1991 history because - as I said earlier - the current 20.25% interest rate set by the CBE was only reached once before and that during an extreme crisis. It is very relevant to me as Centamin is not the only company I can pick to invest in Egypt.

Bottom Line - facts are facts - if you have something to correct or set the record straight on my posts, go ahead. At this point I'm pretty impervious to verbal abuse and attacks on my character.

Was during the Gulf War Crisis. Further reading:

Economic Impact of the Crisis in Egypt

Marsha Pripstein Posusney In: 168 (January/February 1991)

Egypt was facing a severe foreign exchange shortage when the Gulf crisis broke out. Its debt arrears were piling up and it was finding it more and more difficult to obtain new loans. The Gulf crisis threatens to make this situation even worse. Here’s how:

on the brink of economic collapse, and risk major political disruptions. Accordingly, the US and other Western nations and the conservative Gulf monarchies have rallied to Egypt’s aid. This rescue has taken these forms:

Direct Aid and New Loans France will provide $50 million in emergency funds and a $143 million concessional loan. Germany will grant $135 million to finance imports and a concessional loan of $159 million, and will release $365 million in project loans that had been blocked due to Egypt’s arrears in debt service. Increased aid has also been announced by Denmark, Canada, Japan and Italy. The US has not directly increased aid but has upped the cash portion of the aid package from the US Agency for International Development. Grants are also coming in from Gulf countries and the Kuwaiti government in exile. The Gulf Cooperation Council is preparing some $1-2 billion a year. Egypt has reportedly already received $1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia and $600 million from the UAE.

International Monetary Fund Deal After years of pushing Egypt to implement reforms that would make life more difficult for the poor, the IMF, at Washington’s behest, may now be willing to give Egypt a standby agreement on more favorable terms. The Fund, along with the World Bank, is actively lobbying Western nations to increase direct aid to Egypt.

Debt Forgiveness The Bush administration has won Congressional support for its proposal to cancel Egypt’s $7 billion military debt to the US. The Gulf states have reportedly canceled debts worth $7 to $9 billion.

An IMF accord will pave the way for a Paris Club deal with other creditor states worth around $7-8 billion. But what has happened represents a fundamental shift in the components of the external accounts in a way that makes Egypt less reliant on its own resources and more dependent on foreign aid. Worker remittances flowing into Egypt’s “hidden economy” were accessible to members of the lower classes, even in rural areas. Most of the funds made available as crisis relief will accrue to the state, where political and economic elites get first crack at them.

https://merip.org/1991/01/economic-impact-of-the-crisis-in-egypt/

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The last statement about elites skimming off the top of aid packages is particularly resonate in the current Sisi regime. So what has changed? Egypt is bankrupt again and needing a rescue package asap. Only thing different is this time it hasn't taken a war to ruin Egypt's economy, just a military dictator named Sisi

Hi mrtibbles,

I couldn't imagine a more iron clad contract than what currently exists between Centamin and Egypt - yet I point out the fact that it is possible with that last example. Personally, I worry more about political and fiscal instability causing disruptions with procurement of materials (explosives) and who knows what else (equipment)

Being a single source miner is a b*tch - the vulnerability ought to have been addressed years and years ago.

CAIRO, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The Central Bank of Egypt raised overnight interest rates by 100 basis points on Thursday in a surprise move, saying it sought to contain inflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations.

The lending rate was increased to 20.25% and the deposit rate to 19.25%, the bank's Monetary Policy Committee said in a statement.

Fifteen of 16 analysts polled by Reuters this week had expected the bank to leave rates unchanged

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/egypts-central-bank-raises-interest-rates-by-100-bps-2023-08-03/

------------------------>>>>

I'm sure it's nothing to worry about...

Be altered. I have an example of that exact thing happening:

Law 204 of the year 2017 was just changed by an act of parliament:

Sara FakhrySara Fakhry

• 2nd• 2nd

Geologist | Assistant Exploration Manager at Trident Petroleum Egypt | Speaker | Science Communicator | Mentor | TechWomen 2022 AlumniGeologist | Assistant Exploration Manager at Trident Petroleum Egypt | Speaker | Science Communicator | Mentor | TechWomen 2022 Alumni

1mo • Edited • 1mo • Edited •

Follow

Great news!!!

My company’s concession commitment agreement amendment has been approved by the council of ministers.

A law licensing the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources to contract with the EGPC and Trident Petroleum Egypt to amend the commitment agreement issued under the Law 204 of the year 2017 for the oil exploration, exploitation and development at Esh El-Mallaha Marine Field (Magawish).

This means that we have a lot of work to do…

Kindly wish us luck.

#petroleum #work #development #oil #egypt #law #councils #exploration #development #trident #magawish #marine

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sarafakhry_petroleum-work-development-activity-7082758771109769216-qOcx

-------------------------------------------->>>>>

as you can see by the video and attached post - the Egyptian lawmakers changed the law to adjust the terms of the original agreement passed in Egypt's parliament in 2017

there is nothing preventing the same to happen to Centamin - except perhaps a challenge in Egyptian courts - we all know how successful that can be and how willing Centamin is of 'rocking the boat'

also, amendments to tax laws can no doubt supersede whatever benefit a 50/50 profit share has given Centamin when one considers import duties etc.

Bottom Line

Siko, please do keep posting about Egypt for the benefit of all the current Centamin shareholders.

I'm not posting here for the likes or supportive comments - I feel other long term share holders deserve honesty and clarity to decide their next move

On a personal note - my being invested in Centamin for over 13 years most definitely wins me the 'privilege' of posting on this forum - and those who imagine my posts could alter the share price for my benefit are simply looking for a way to disparage the validity of my concerns and change the subject

Who does their attacks against me benefit? Centamin's management - as it gives management the cover to continue to rape and pillage Centamin's assets for their own personal benefit with impunity

Considering the limited resources Centamin have to do exploration - perhaps an equity placement or joint venture from/with a 3rd party to help facilitate growth in both Cote D'Ivoire & Egypt is in order?

An excerpt from B2Gold's Q2 results states they are looking for opportunities to put their $84 million exploration budget to use:

Exploration

B2Gold is executing another year of extensive exploration in 2023 with an increased budget of approximately $84 million (original budget of $64 million). A significant focus will be in proximity to its operating mines in Mali, Namibia and the Philippines, as well as $20 million of spending on both infill and generative exploration at the recently acquired Back River Gold District. Ongoing exploration will continue to advance B2Gold's early stage projects in Finland and Cote d’Ivoire. Target generation and pursuing new opportunities in prospective gold regions in Africa, Canada, South America, the Philippines and Central Asia continue. This generative initiative could include equity placements and new joint ventures with junior companies, similar to B2Gold's 2023 investments in Snowline and its Rogue project in the Yukon, Canada, and its 2022 investment in Matador Mining Ltd. and its Cape Ray Gold project in Newfoundland, Canada.

https://www.b2gold.com/news/b2gold-reports-q2-2023-results-strong-q2-2023-operating-results-position-b2gold-to-achieve-2023-annual-guidance-first-half-of-2023-cash-operating-costs-and-all-in-sustaining-costs-both-below-2023-guidance-ranges

IMO shared growth with diversification (and shared risk) is better than no growth

You may be right, or maybe not - the Egyptian business lawyer who specializes in the subject and brought it to my attention is still unclear just what sources of income to which it will apply.

But in case you have special knowledge in this area let's talk here:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-lawson-98619370/

As is the case with everything Egyptian - it's yet to be clarified to which companies the profit shares dividend tax will be applied. Nonetheless it's another hammer in the hand of a cash strapped country.

Of note Centamin currently pays penalties (which is just another form of taxation) above and beyond the standard 50/50 profit share agreement each year (these are tucked away in AGM notes as determinations between EMRA and Centamin) - but I digress

2023 of 30 .:No Law

تار>خ :رادصلإا ١٥ ينوي و ٢٠٢٣ 2023

June 15 :Date Issuance

The law stipulates the amendment of some

provisions of the Income Tax Law No. 91 of

2005 and Law No. 182 of 2020, as follows:

I- the establishment of the Supreme Tax Council, which shall be headed by the prime

minister, to ensure the rights of taxpayers of all types and assist them in fulfilling their

legal obligations imposed by tax laws;

K- determining cases in which the company’s profit shares dividend are subject to tax rate

of 10% (ten per cent) or 5% (five per cent)

N- determining cases for:

- linking non-final taxes due on establishments and companies from the effective date of the law;

- cases where non-payment would be tolerated; and

- tax exemption continuation.

https://www.adsero.me/storage/uploads/blogs/pdf/euIz4SClczqOaJVDnfXGiiBuP0azN39DdzeMLAMF.pdf

As you can see the changes give extreme leeway to the newly created Supreme Tax Council , granting exemptions where they see fit (or are bribed into seeing fit?!)

Also, there are numerous other fees and taxes newly imposed - import fees and the like, which could make inflation and importing new equipment more costly

Does this chat board exist to only post positive messages - regardless of management?

Or put another way, would you prefer negative information about Centamin be suppressed ?

I've read the comments some here post regarding other companies in which they also invest, and many of those comments are critical - to the point they question why they held the shares despite a declining share price. I never once considered censuring them, or asking them why they post - on the contrary - I would welcome learning from their experience.

But perhaps that's a result of non-anonymity. I routinely discuss investments publicly here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-lawson-98619370/

It's not that I don't trust you as anonymous posters (well actually I don't) it's that I question who invests their money with a blindfold over their eyes and insist any negative detractors put a gag in their mouths.

Also, I've answered your questions before , I am still willing to invest in Egypt , but only if and when Centamin's management is replaced by competent individuals more concerned with the wellbeing of the company than enriching themselves & their cohorts.

The number of conflict of interests the current CEO Mr Horgan has racked up in his 3 and a half long years is astounding - if not bordering on criminal.

Hi 3bear,

I appreciate the candor and humor. Admittedly I do wear the pessimist mantle. But for the sake of nostalgia let's compare the way we were (plug to BS - that's Barbara Streisand not the other BS) to where we are now - and see if Centamin has become the world class outfit other miners might want to emulate.

Then (from 2018 AGM Presentation) file:///C:/Users/peter/Downloads/cey-investor-presentation-2018-agm-260318.pdf

1) Self-performing, self-funding and staged development approach

2) Becoming a multi-asset gold producer maintaining a lowest-quartile cost profile

3) Creating long-term returns on shareholders capital , dividend 12.5 cents US

4) Exploration spend is results driven. 2018 ~$38m

5) Cash on hand $418 million

6) Lowest cost quartile gold producer - forecast AISC $770/oz

7) Overall head grade 1.57 g/t

8) Strip ratio 3.4x including low-grade material (down from 4.7x in 2016)

9) zero hedging

Now

1) LOC Ready To Be Deployed (& paying over $10 million in annual fees to maintain its existence while undrawn)

2) Still becoming multi-asset (if Doropo gets a green light) by 2027ish & forgetta bouta lowest quartile costs, forever

3) Long term share price performance flat , dividend a small fraction of 2016,2017,2018, etc

4) Exploration spend almost non-existent

5) Cash on hand less than a quarter of 2018

6) Highest cost quartile gold producer - forecast $1300 - $1400 (doubled since 2018)

7) Overall head grade sub 1g

8) Strip ratio double or triple and no end in sight

9) buying forward sales puts (costing $6+ million for 2023 alone)

A note to 007 - who is the troll? Your laser focused fascination with me would be flattering if you weren't so creepy. Come out of the shadows and talk - I'm not hiding under a bridge attacking like you , troll

https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-lawson-98619370/

The death of a delivery worker inside an elevator in Mohandessin, after he was detained for several hours due to the elevator's breakdown due to the power outage

https://twitter.com/RassdNewsN/status/1686285851049783296

To UK savers!?

https://www.ft.com/content/e03abe49-a513-4777-8d90-32e252733690

Several banks have raised their savings rates in recent weeks, including HSBC, whose standard rates have increased from 1.35 per cent to 1.75 per cent, and Barclays at the end of June, whose top everyday saver rate rose from 1.00 per cent to 1.51 per cent in mid-July. 

https://www.ft.com/content/e03abe49-a513-4777-8d90-32e252733690

--------------------------------->>>>

If this is an accurate account of savings interest rates in the UK - then I am in disbelief.

Easy to find 4.85% interest rate at Canadian banks with no term or withdrawal restrictions -

I too would be looking for high dividend stocks if I lived in the UK and could not find a decent return on liquid cash portion of holdings - unreal!

I'll give you my opinion - Centamin's share price is going down.

Of note the Doropo pre-PFS was originally based on $1700 gold price - but to cover up the erroneously low capital cost estimates from the PEA and pre-PFS the gold price estimate was raised to $1900 and most shareholders were oblivious . Some even deceitfully hailed the 'new' economics as impressive.

Mr Horgan knows exactly what he is doing - perverting the data and skewing presentations to make the economics shine in his favour. The house of cards will come down, the chickens will come home to roost.

It is never in the best interest of shareholders to switch to the current spot gold price to calculate a PFS or DFS. It's always in the best interest of shareholders to calculate a potential project with a ten year average gold price which would be around $1500 gold

Here's a excerpt from Barrick's 2022 annual report published March 2023 (yes, it's about reserves but I haven't the time or inclination to dig up PFS/DFS calculation's today but they are equally if not more importantly conservative)

In 2022, all mineral resources were estimated using a gold price assumption of $1,700 per ounce and a copper price of $3.75 per pound, both up from $1,500 per ounce for gold and $3.50 per pound for copper in 2021

https://www.barrick.com/English/investors/annual-report/reserves-and-resources/default.aspx

Mr Horgan has eroded the company's finances and reputation to the point it will take some serious good news (which yes, is still possible!) to turn the share price around. Gold jumping to $2100plus would also give the share price a reprieve - but depending on the price of gold to only rise or maintain its current level is not the way to ensure success. Nay, it is the way to guarantee failure, IMO . ((Now start throwing stones , for surely I have nefarious reasons for being soooo negative - maybe I get paid $1000 for every negative post? ))

"Minister of Health and Population: More than 5,000 children are born daily, costing the Egyptian state billions of pounds"

https://twitter.com/AlMasryAlYoum/status/1685697253359357952

and the people's reply :

"Wise words from an ignorant person. Not every overpopulation is harmful. Our country's strength is in people. We invest in them, not in stone. Education, health and job opportunities. This is the strength of Egypt that must be distinguished, not the talk of the ignorant Abdel Nasser and those who came after him with complaints from the population. If you teach them correctly and make them work, the rate will be balanced with the resources. Other than that, deception and misleading!"

https://twitter.com/asyooty_el/status/1685702719498035201

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The fact of the matter is Sisi spent 3 billion+ US $ on his presidential palace which still isn't complete - and his cabinet will never speak a word about it costing too much. When a leader cares more about building skyscrapers, clocktowers and palaces for himself - while complaining that his constituents replicate like rats and eat too much - his days are numbered.

I started Early – Took my Dog –

And visited the Sea –

The Mermaids in the Basement

Came out to look at me –

And Frigates – in the Upper Floor

Extended Hempen Hands –

Presuming Me to be a Mouse –

Aground – opon the Sands –

But no Man moved Me – till the Tide

Went past my simple Shoe –

And past my Apron – and my Belt

And past my Boddice – too –

And made as He would eat me up –

As wholly as a Dew

Opon a Dandelion's Sleeve –

And then – I started – too –

And He – He followed – close behind –

I felt His Silver Heel

Opon my Ancle – Then My Shoes

Would overflow with Pearl –

Until We met the Solid Town –

No One He seemed to know –

And bowing – with a Mighty look –

At me – The Sea withdrew –

You think Oz has it tough ? just look at the state of affairs in London (from my twitter feed)

Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan

@MayorofLondon

I’m extremely concerned that there will potentially be no train services running between London and Brighton during Brighton & Hove Pride.

It threatens the success and safety of one of the country's most important LGBTQI+ events.

https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/1685319272686338049

(any wonder things are up sh*ts creek for the majority of taxpayers ?)

Commentary/news articles - where do suggest I get correct info on Egypt?

For instance, here's an Egyptian journalist comment I read the other day:

"Between mismanagement of the economy, exchange rate problems, government weakness, and parliament's statements on transfers. Egyptians' remittances will decrease by at least 25-30% compared to last year, when remittances reached more than $30 billion."

https://twitter.com/asyooty_el

I read many such dire statements by academics living in Egypt. If I were making this stuff up myself perhaps you'd have a point - i.e. refraining from predicting a poor outcome for Centamin and Egypt.

But what is worse, staying invested in Centamin and losing one's investment - or getting out while their is still time & reinvesting in a better managed company in a much safer jurisdiction? I would think any reasonable person would choose safety - and wish the same for his neighbor?

Oh, one more thing. Don't you think Sisi is a certified lunatic? There is a video of him circulating where he's lecturing a stadium of people about his having a conversation with the 'Lord' . Sisi thinks he's some sort of prophet of God sent to deliver the Egyptians. That alone is worrying enough to stay away from investing until he's removed from power. Link here:

https://twitter.com/hossambahgat/status/1684893348069269504

Egyptian billionaire and renowned businessman, Naguib Sawiris has defended the decision of his brother, Samih, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Orascom Development Holding Company, to suspend all investment activities in Egypt and relocate to Saudi Arabia.

"People should not assume bad faith in a family or in a person or individual like Samih or myself when we say something, (..) Today, many investors are afraid to come [to Egypt] because they do not know what the US dollar price will be tomorrow," Naguib said in a telephone interview with Al-Hadath Al-Youm TV channel, which he posted on his Twitter page.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230512-egypts-billionaire-naguib-sawiris-defends-brothers-decision-to-relocate-investments-to-saudi-arabia/

------------------------------>>>>

Yes, it's an article from May 12, 2023 - but the smart money always flees first.

More recently (June 25, 2023) Naguib posted on his twitter account (speaking about Egypt 's economic misfortunes) “Public sector = loose money = corruption.”

https://twitter.com/NaguibSawiris/status/1673009454298669059

Bottom Line: Centamin has had plenty of time to diversify out of Egypt, but management sat on their hands and wasted shareholder funds hand over fist - the end could be sooner than shareholders think.

27/07/2023

Egypt's prime minister announced a number of measures Thursday, including planned power cuts, to cut down on energy consumption

Civil servants will work from home one day a week in an attempt to ease the load on local electricity networks, Mostafa Madbouli said in televised remarks

He also confirmed that planned power cuts announced by the government last week will continue, with residents warned not to use elevators at certain times of day.

Last week's measure sparked a backlash, with many people complaining that the cuts -- frequently coming at the hottest time of day -- often lasted longer than two hours and occurred outside of the planned time slots.

A similar energy crisis during the short-lived presidency of the late Islamist Mohamed Morsi led to widespread anger and protests before he was removed by the army in July 2013.

In 2015 the authorities struck a deal with German electricity giant Siemens to build three major power plants with investments estimated at six billion euros ($6.5 billion) in a bid to improve the network.

But the country has since struggled with depleting foreign reserves and mounting debt

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230727-egypt-announces-planned-power-cuts-measures-amid-heatwave

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Practically speaking, Centamin should think twice about putting their independent power generation in mothballs and becoming dependent on the reliability of Egypt's power grid

Even though Egypt has touted many times that it has become energy independent and a net exporter it's obviously just one of Sisi's many exaggerations