Member Info for Cowichan

I hope all the LTH's realize chances are equally good my selling is the perfect contrarian signal that now is the time to stay invested with Centamin!

I sold mainly because I don't see any near term catalysts to support the share price from pulling back significantly. That and some (how shall I put it, scrutiny?) Centamin now faces from its auditors Pricewaterhouse Coopers & the EMRA. That said, if all things are 'cleared up' and management finds a way to drastically reduce AISC perhaps I'd get back in.

For now I'll keep in the loop with the contacts I've made thru LinkedIn. One such insider just posted a segment from Centamin's 2022/2023 exploration agenda:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/islam-el-hoseiny-msc-2802a96b_projects-centamin-exploration-activity-7022435875397513217-4lBq

Islam El-Hoseiny , MSc - Senior Exploration Geologist at SUKARI GOLD MINES

https://www.linkedin.com/in/islam-el-hoseiny-msc-2802a96b/

- 3,324 meters of resource drilling at the Kurdeman prospect
- 5,815 meters of second phase exploration drilling at the new V-Shear East prospect
- Re-logging, geological review and modelling with further drilling planned on the update of a pit optimisation study at Quartz Ridge prospect

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Exploration activities like these are actually part of the rationale behind my departure. That is to say one reoccurring question I posed to Centamin management these last several years was why exactly have the satellite deposits around Sukari - that already have mineral resource estimates calculated (like Quartz Ridge) are still being kept secret from shareholders and subsequently being kept off the total tally of Centamin's group resources. Silence, silence and more silence.

Given Centamin's much touted commitment to ESG I find it unacceptable that their primary focus is on the 'E '. To me ESG includes proper Governance i.e. keeping ALL shareholders informed of exploration results and growing resources; proper Social i.e. honoring social development commitments to indigenous, local communities (employment for Batie West residents), proper accountability i.e. meeting timeline targets/goals (or at least acknowledging and explaining why timelines are unable to be met) i.e. Capital Review, Doropo PFS, Bonanza zone exploitation, etc.)

In the end those ESG metrics are just as important to me as a decent dividend. Best, D

No more complaining from me so yes Alex will be very glad. But I'll still post fluff stuff

New Horgan interview with IG here:
https://youtu.be/uq4ZOkg6Rt4

So no more negative comments from me. Thanks for asking and having Mr Horgan answer all those questions Alex (also deleted my LinkedIn/Twitter posts relating to Centamin, not appropriate for me to leave them up now that I'm sold out )

That said I will pop in from time to time (like today) to comment on other things of interest, this time Centamin's sister LSE listed company Endeavour Mining.

This was Endeavour's top 5 shareholder position as of Dec 31, 2021

1 La Mancha 19.5%
2 BlackRock 10.7%
3 Van Eck Associates 9.1%
4 Tablo Corporation 6.3%
5 Barrick Gold 3.6%

https://www.endeavourmining.com/sites/endeavour-mining-v2/files/2022-02/220228-edv-corporate-presentation-vf.pdf (see page 6)

Fast forward to Nov. 30, 2022 and Barrick no longer appears on the list - not even in the top 50 shareholders. See here:

https://www.endeavourmining.com/investors/institutional-ownership

Based on Endeavour's current market cap of $ 8,100,000,000 CND and having owned 3.6% that would mean a Barrick divestiture of approx. $ 291,600,000 (depending on share price at date of sale)

Not an insignificant departure. Add Barrick's sale to Endeavour's CEO selling his 150,000 shares in November 2022 and the picture gets clearer. Smart money wants out.

PS Good luck Centamin LTHs

2022 was the first year ever that Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) shrank in value. The scale of the drop is debatable as most SWFs report with significant delays, if at all – but Global SWF estimates the impact totaled US$ 1 trillion. Similarly, Public Pension Funds (PPFs) have reduced their assets by US$ 1.3 trillion, with the subsequent worsening of funding ratios.

https://globalswf.com/reports/2023annual

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Lots of charts and data, some ideas for investing in 2023/trends too

But if Centamin reiterate their 2023 guidance of 450-475k ounces at an AISC of $975 - 1200 maybe I'll get religious.

Sadly I think they led us astray in their forecasting...

Full Year 2022 Exploration Spend Estimate

page 26

Batie West Project, Burkina Faso $ 3 million License & Admin ( what changed, and when? )

Doropo Project, Cote D'Ivoire $ 7 million PFS & $ 8 million DFS (we didn't even get the PFS completed, let alone the DFS ! )

taken from page 24

2022 Production 430-460k AISC $1275 - 1425
2023 Production 450-475k AISC $975 - 1200

https://www.centamin.com/media/2477/centamin-investor-presentation-jan2022.pdf

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That was a dreamy AISC estimate for 2023
What did management expect to save money on in 2023 ( even while the waste clearing contract is operating until 2024 ) ?

Barrick Gold Corp.’s bullion output slid last year to its lowest level since 2000, missing analysts’ expectations and its own target as operational woes curbed production.

The Toronto-based metals producer has seen bullion output slide since acquiring Randgold Resources Ltd in 2019. Barrick’s highest annual output was in 2006, when it produced a record 8.64 million ounces in the year that saw the company take over its Canadian rival Placer Dome Inc.

Acquisitions could help lift Barrick’s metals output while awaiting longer-term development projects to come to fruition. Bristow said in a Dec. 28 interview that he’s focusing on deals in “the junior part of the market” this year.

Barrick is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings results on Feb. 15, a report that typically outlines the firm’s guidance for metals production for the year ahead.

https://www.mining.com/web/barrick-set-to-report-highest-quarterly-gold-output-for-2022/

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M&A or bust.

CENTAMIN PLC - Q4 2022 - Investor Presentation - 19th Jan 2023 at 1:00pm GMT

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/q4-2022-investor-presentation

Q&A
You can pre-submit questions directly to the company up until the day before the meeting, in addition to asking questions during the live presentation. Whilst the Company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives, it will address the most prominent within the confines of information already disclosed to the market.

Question 1:
Has the Doropo PFS been delayed because the exploration permits have expired? If so, when were the requests to renew permits made?
Question 2:
Has Centamin's board reversed its policy on gold sales hedging/forward contracts in order to secure new bank funding? What are the reason(s) for the Capital Structure Review delay?
Question 3:
When will Centamin shareholders also have access to the 2022 Sukari airborne survey, the 2019 Sukari seismic survey & the deep Sukari 'step-out' drilling results of 2019/2020 ?
Question 4:
Given the Burkina Faso Ministry of Mines is still referring to Centamin's ownership of the Konkera concessions/gold deposit as recently as Jan 12th, 2023 in a public press release (see https://twitter.com/NamazeDany/status/1613854410139963394 ) why has Centamin indicated it no longer retains possession? Subsequently, Centamin has a fiduciary duty to extract whatever economic benefit there remains for its shareholders - whether by divestiture, joint-development or a royalty agreement upon 3rd party exploitation.
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These are my submissions, hoping they can answer or respond with exactly why they cannot.

Chief Operating Officer - CoTec Holdings Corp
Jan 2023 - Present
London, England, United Kingdom

Centamin PLC - Head Of Corporate Development
Centamin Egypt/Pharaoh Gold Mines
Jun 2019 - Aug 2022
Jersey, United Kingdom

https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-singleton-6055ba174/
https://cotec.ca/

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Apparently he left last summer. No notification to shareholders? The title sounds impressive/important but what exactly did he accomplish? Why was he let go? Did he screw up? Who, if anyone, has replaced him? Once again, I don't see any value creation from these professionals. (somebody will blithely comment that is why he was let go, of course)

LinkedIn Press release Jan 13, 2023

The Ministry of Energy, Mines and Quarries has been informed of a massive influx, in recent weeks, of gold miners on the Konkera gold site in the municipality of BOUSSOUKOULA whose permit belongs to the CENTAMIN mining company. This situation degenerated into an attack and caused the destruction of the CENTAMIN facilities by these miners from various backgrounds. On Thursday, January 12, 2023, an altercation between the miners left one dead. To deal with any eventuality, the regional authorities have suspended gold mining activities and ordered the eviction of gold miners from the site. The Ministry of Energy, Mines and Quarries deplores this situation, which has caused a loss of human life and was created by gold miners who do not hold any operating permit. This disorder thus undermines efforts to organize artisanal gold mining. Juni The ministry says that all measures will be taken to curb this crisis as soon as possible. of t Mines and The Director of Quarries The Department of Communication and Press Relations

https://twitter.com/Dieuson1/status/1613856486735618049

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My Thoughts:

I sent Centamin a message on LinkedIn (even though they blocked me from tagging their director names) asking whether in fact Centamin knows it still has possession of these concessions.
Keep in mind this press release has been sent directly from Burkina Faso's Ministry of Mines. If they are indicating Centamin still has possession - why is their confusion/disagreement? If Centamin shareholders can benefit from these substantial Konkera gold deposits - either by sale/joint development agreement/royalty takeoff - we deserve management pursue this to the best of their ability. Answers Mr Horgan/Alex ??

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_centamin-plc-why-is-the-burkina-faso-ministry-activity-7019728720546451456-WgBX

Jan 12, 2023

MA’ADEN, a Saudi state-owned mining company headquartered in Riyadh, is planning to invest in the Egyptian mining sector, as part of strategies by the Gulf’s largest miner to invest in mining assets around world.

The announcement was made by Egyptian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Tarek El-Molla told Asharq Business in an interview.

Representative from the Riyadh-based company will visit Egypt within 10 days to explore the available opportunities for investment in the sector, El Molla also announced.

MA’ADEN had announced an agreement with the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund (PIF) to set a joint venture in view of investing in assets globally, Reuters reported.

The company said it will own 51 per cent in the venture while PIF will control remaining 49 per cent.

https://northafricapost.com/64337-saudi-mining-company-planning-investments-in-egypt.html

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Always lots of talk but Barrick, Centamin & B2 gold are still waiting for the mining terms to be finalized. 18 months is ridiculously long...

effective as of 1 January 2023

... In addition, the Decree stipulates that private sector employees are entitled to an annual salary increase of 3%

https://www.sharkawylaw.com/amendment-to-minimum-wage-and-annual-increase-in-private-sector/

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My Thoughts:
Considering the rampant inflation in Egypt and concurrent EGP devaluation we should expect a wage increase for Centamin/Capital employees in the order of >10%

Of course these workers deserve it - still it will push AISC up

In regards to the last few posts, who among us isn't choosing to believe management is keeping us informed - otherwise wouldn't we be invested elsewhere?

The reality is too often it's only when the bad news is no longer deniable that shareholders are informed.

On that note I'd like to know what Centamin LTH's are expecting in terms of 2023 performance.

An AISC of $ 1500 or above?
Production of 450-500k ?
If that is all that can be expected isn't management setting the bar quite low?

Also, Doropo - what do LTH's expect the costs will be?

Endeavour just awarded mining firm Mota-Engil a $600 million contract to carry out production at its recently approved Lafigué mine in Cote D'Ivoire which will have similar volumes as Doropo. That's an incredible sum and will be challenging to bring value to shareholders if its actual metrics don't fall into line with projections.

https://im-mining.com/2022/12/13/mota-engil-seals-endeavour-mining-lafigue-gold-project-contract/

Whatever happens with Doropo, Centamin still has prime Egyptian real estate to explore. I however do not like the fact that it's been 18 months since the concessions were awarded and we are still no further ahead in knowing what the final exploitation terms will be. Who is going to spend $ drilling in Egypt with uncertainties like this hanging over the industry?

Sébastien de Montessus disposes 150,000 shares $ 4,066,500.00 11 November 2022

Interestingly, he sold in Toronto vs London

To support the share price Endeavour has been buying back shares for cancellation weekly all throughout 2022

Having much of its production in Burkina Faso who knows better than Mr Montessus whether meeting forecast production will be challenging

Also, Endeavour's pure M&A production growth strategy may be proving untenable

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/endeavour_mining/rns/regulatory-story.aspx

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/01/05/capital-limited-in-name-only/

January 5, 2023

Arguably, the customer base is more concentrated than is ideal, with around half of all revenues coming from the Centamin-operated Sukari mine and another unnamed project. However, these revenues are split across six on-site contracts, so are not as risky as they appear.

Currently, the clear majority of mine-site sales are made in Africa, where Capital is the largest independent mining services company and focuses largely on tier-one assets managed by premier mining groups including AngloGold Ashanti (US:AU), Centamin (CEY) and Barrick (US:GOLD).

These services are provided through contracts comprising a mix of management, volume-based and per-sample fees, and are typically signed for between two and five years. But Capital’s close working relationships with its mining customers mean the group always has a clear idea of long-term spending plans, and repeat awards are common. Contracts also contain provisions that help to shield Capital from the effects of cost inflation.

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The article contains many more metrics but to summarize , look how transformative the Sukari contract has been to Capital's income* (Capital, whose shareholders have historically and may still include major Centamin shareholders)

year / sales* (millions $)
2019 / 115
2020 / 135
2021 / 227
2022 / 287
2023 / 322 (estimate)

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My Thoughts
Capital has a better understanding of their revenue from the Centamin waste contract (year over year) than Centamin shareholders know of what it costs them.

Question for anyone who might know: How many EXTRA ounces will the $260 million expedited waste clearing contract give Centamin access to?

Centamin has a robust self declared internal ROE of >25% To the best of my knowledge shareholders have not been given access to whether or not the decision to award this contract is based on meeting this revenue hurdle.

So then on what metric was the contract signed?

Positives
1) Bonanza grade zone entering production, how many ounces for how long?
2) Sukari satellite orebody feedstock, how many ounces for how long?
3) New deposits discovered on new concessions (obviously depends on when they start drilling!) If a new deposit is found, probably minimum 5 years to drill out and build a mill
4) gold price outperforms

Negative
1) AISC keeps rising due to lower grades/less ore than expected
2) Doropo building costs much more than previously forecast/project gets mothballed  
3) Black Swan event - Sukari exploitation license threatened, processing plant failure, underground disaster, consumables become difficult to source
4) zero premium buyout
5) gold price underperforms

Please feel free to add to the list and/or comment what will be the result of such events.

One thing is clear - trading Centamin along with the moves of gold (if you can time it!) has worked better than holding for the 'growth & diversification' story that just never seems to materialize.

Centamin's big dividend has served as a 'get out of jail free' card for management far too long

'arrogance, lack of transparency, complacency and that investors money held in the company can be taken for granted. Hence the sensitivity on poor communications, supplying vague data, low balling to meet targets that pay management well, poor decision making as scrutiny outside of the board is ignored.'

this is all true - therefore it's up to us shareholders to ask questions and not just the no brainers - it's clear the 'professional' analysts don't ask anything that might embarrass our CEO or his team

one of those key questions is the cost analysis/rationale Centamin used to determine owner operated vs Capital operated waste movement - I don't expect Mr Horgan can answer this question truthfully (but please Mr Horgan prove me wrong!) because it was a sweetheart deal with Capital's former CEO making $ off the books

but Capital is now working on (new?) underground equipment for Sukari. Point being haven't seen Capital involved with Sukari's underground equipment before.

Mostafa Abdelrahman - Fire suppression system Team leader at Capital Limited

We strived for the perfection to Protect our #BOGGER to achieve the safety for the operation process underground.
#firesuppressionsystem installation
#caterpillar
#mining

pictures here:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mostafa-abdelrahman-0b59b9119_bogger-firesuppressionsystem-caterpillar-activity-7014869268768952321-MQB4

Oriole Resources PLC said it will write down the carrying value of its 24.94% interest in privately-owned Thani Stratex Resources Limited (TSR) after its Hodine licence in Egypt was formally relinquished.

On 19 October 2022, Oriole reported that Red Sea Resources Limited (RSR) had spent US$2.2mln on exploration at Hodine, specifically the Anbat project, but that it would not be exercising its option to acquire an 85% interest in the licence.

The decision was made on the basis that the exploration programmes had not significantly improved the existing 2017 inferred Mineral Resource Estimate at Anbat of 209,000 ounces grading 1.11 grammes per tonne gold.

Furthermore, the Egyptian mining authority, EMRA, had concluded that the 2017 MRE did not satisfy the definition of a commercial discovery under the Egyptian Mining Code. Accordingly, RSR, therefore, forfeited its right to an 85% interest in the licence and TSR resumed full control.

With the licence due to expire on 31 December 2022 and no possibility of extending its tenure, TSR has advised the company that it has now formally relinquished the licence.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/oriole_resources/news/regulatory_news/story/x4n6jdr