Member Info for Couerdelion

I think you're better off keeping the dividend and waiting for a better price.

Quite a bit of late afternoon trading activity going on. Something to watch perhaps.

I saw somewhere an offer to buy into BOLT through EIS or VCT. It indicated that this was an early stage investor looking to sell.

The deal price should give another rerate in the NAV.

Getting 9.5p selling price on AJ Bell now.

If you're worried about a "pump and dump", just don't buy. The worst that can happen is that we get a few new unhappy short term buyers but we get rid of a few longer term unhappy buyers. Ultimately it will all wash out and all it really does is place a slightly higher resistance level on the SP.

Well that's my take on it.l

Don't we also need to know how many shares TEK would own?

Probably a silly question but would this now sit now in a new portfolio company (ie Destiny) in the Group?

Presumably this is one that will need some capital to invest but this will no doubt be explained when the results come out next week.

Bill, any new money will dilute the % held by TEK about would also increase the MCap of Guident by the same amount. So estimates of the TEK holding are based on the pre-capital raise value but they would hold also after accounting for any new money or shares. You'll also get other effects like the dilution effect of warrants but these calculations are very rough and meant to give an indication of what potential Guident has on the SP here.

But as you say, all the arguments here are about the amount of upside. Even those sitting here for years with losses are not really disputing the potential value but are likely concerned about what sort of slice of the winnings will be sucked up in various management fees and bonuses.

"Many thanks for reading this" - anyone reading that needs a medal :-)

I think you've probably done the right thing, JCB. In fact going one step further, I sold some PHNX a couple of weeks ago and bought LGEN for a healthy increase in dividend. The differential almost closed the following trading day after PHNX results but it is widening again and I am considering making the same switch from PHNX to LGEN.

Surprised that people would try this again after yesterday - and from what I can see of activity, there wasn't much to be made from buying early and selling later.

But if it is, it's no skin off my nose. I think the only thing we lose are investors selling at low prices which solves a problem for us later when the shares start to rerate and there is less resistance to an upwards move.

The Loan Notes with Guident are worth something in the region of £4m - over 20% of TEK's MCap. Of course they won't be making us the big money but it's another pot of money that will be coming back our way.

Wozzer,

Are you also applying a "discount to NAV" in your calculations. $100m x 70% / 1.25/235 comes out as 23.8p from my calculations?

Need to shake off a few 8p sellers here. Shouldn't take too long.

I've I read this carefully I think it's almost the same RNS as the one in May but with "draft" removed.

Someone else will probably be able to explain how significant this is.

The cut itself will have no effect because it was expected but if US bond prices are rising it means yields are falling so you might expect companies like PHNX to see a similar drop in their dividend yield (ie higher SP).

All sadly too theoretical as the SP here has been merrily rising all year while UK bond prices have gone in the other direction. If markets suddenly remember that prices of shares like PHNX should start to mirror bond prices, there's a risk they might see how far they have diverged this year and then you get a correction.

Ox123,

I was actually speaking of regulatory capital (as per PRA rules) rather than the IFRS accounting measure. I know my way round the former but it is the basis which drives how cash can be released from life insurance entities and Own Funds is the measure of the value held in the business. There is an analogy with NAV + CSM but as an IFRS standard that has to cater to all variations of life and pensions business around the world while the PRA basis is specific to the UK and Own Funds is as close as you will get to a "best-estimate" value of assets less liabilities. IFRS17 may drive profits but PRA rules drive cash used to pay dividends and share buybacks.

FWIW, when companies buy and sell blocks of business (or whole companies) they often quote a % of Own Funds as the purchase price. Typically 85% would be seen as reasonable for a closed book.

I really don't know but it did something similar in late-May where it shed nearly 20% of the post-ex-div bounce so the important thing to do is keep some powder dry to add when these things happen. I bought some on Monday and have already earmarked the price where I'll add some more.

I also took the opportunity to collect my profits total as I've missed the boat on a couple of occasions at these levels in recent months so felt it more important to recycle cash than to wait for the perfect selling price. As ever, my profits get left as shares so I keep some of the upside but revert back to a balanced weighting while waiting for other buying opportunities elsewhere.

They'll find it difficult to get a deal approved for less than 90% of the MCap.

So what do we think, just giving back yesterday's gains?