Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Amen to scrapping stamp duty, would fit with the discussions around encouraging more UK investors to invest in UK. But yes, also need the IIs to believe the 'turnaround' is happening.
FTSE rebalance is effective 18th March rather than this week; it was expected for KIER so perhaps somewhat reflected in recent rise as well. Interesting moves this morning though...
Here's the official announcement from last night:
https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2024/ftse-uk-index-series-review-march-2024
Now it's official:
https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2024/ftse-uk-index-series-review-march-2024
2 x 9m shares went through as OTC two seconds apart and didn't nudge the SP so looks like maybe a transfer between IIs ?
Meanwhile, half the world awaits the PCE tomorrow afternoon (the preliminaries today didn't appear to give much away) while the rest of us are off to put the kettle on :p
Nooo! Not the jitters Mary, that never ends well :(
Looks like maybe a few UBS clients took the bait this morning and then fizzled out, but for now…
Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUODdPpnxcA
Paul Simon, genius. Maybe holds some JD shares?
US GDP at 1.30pm GMT so expect a flurry of algo activity around then - but which way...
The official announcement comes by press release from FTSE Russell after market close tonight. The Times are a little ahead but that's standard media - get the story out before your competitors.
The decision is (partly) based on closing MCap value yesterday but the index rebalancing doesn't take effect until 18th March.
So they are not in-in yet, but they are out>in and will be back in very soon. It's been a long journey but time to push on now and see what future opportunities bring ...
And still a pause in the buy-backs. Not sure what's going on there?
Still unofficial but looks like no strike with the extra ball, maybe just missed out at the end by three pins - I mean three places - in the table :/
Now 7 days running closed above previous high of 315 from Jan 2020, but going sideways again so needs direction. Same for a number of companies returning to their pre-covid level, maybe just pausing as some LT holders sell once back to break-even?
Let it go, JG, let it go before your sanity is let go.
US durable goods orders and consumer confidence both came in well down this afternoon so that will have an impact today. US PCE on Thursday at 1.30pm GMT is the big one this week though.
Cheers, I need to update some of my data research. I may do some more digging into fund values at the weekend, but the massive outflow of money from some funds, and many UK company shares generally in recent years makes for a hard read. Darned NASDAQ!
What source are you using for that? Just curious, not questioning it.
It's not the number of funds that matters, it's the total value of the assets within those funds that is available to invest in each index or sector of the market that counts, and the 'relative' weighting then given to each company invested in.
Cut off is UK market close after the end of day auction sets the closing price, Canada is not relevant to the decision made by FTSE Russell.
For the discussion on tracker funds - remember that EZJ is going into the bottom end of the 100 so a 'relatively' small position in those funds (to start with) and hence a small portion of the funds available will be allocated to acquiring those shares.
Conversely, as it is currently at the top end of the 250, it will be a relatively large portion of the holdings in the 250 trackers that will now be reallocated elsewhere after disposing of those shares.
Many of these funds are managed within the same fund manager 'stables' so they will try to transfer as many shares in-house as needed, to try to limit both costs and market volatility, rather than buying on open market. Hence the points made by TRD in the OP on this thread.
And none of this happens quickly, it's a gradual process and the funds will have their own rules and rebalancing dates to comply with. Most of them try to 'mirror' the FTSE indices over time but their allocations are never an exact match at any one time.
It's on!
Clean bowled to take out the 7-10 for the spare and at time of writing my estimate is that BOWL is in place for promotion to the FTSE250 when it is rebalanced on 18th March. Needs to hold place at close tonight for the extra ball to count :)
The SP has also closed above the previous all time high of 315 for the last 6 days running, so clear skies above.
Obviously just my own calcs and not official; FTSE Russell announce the actual changes after close tomorrow.
I have £13.67 for EDV, but either way still a big jump / black swan RNS needed to close the gap from £12.87 and avoid the scalpel.
EZJ need c.590s to take the matter into their own hands but doesn't look like that will be needed.
Lunchtime, yay :)
Not until after close tomorrow.
EDV fighting back today after going ex-div last Thursday, although still a good bit off survival. EZJ not yet high enough for promotion under their own steam.
Yeah, $81k for ‘marketing’, cos BP don’t already have a ready stream of customers! Expensive biscuits in the canteen that month ;)
I see Brent back in mid 70s short term before it gets to 90s, if at all. Just a personal feeling, partly chart based, rather than a knowledgeable assessment of the market (I’ll leave that ‘knowledge’ to the traders pushing their book…).
Unless some distressed seller needs to do a bit of urgent greenwashing I don’t see Prax completing any deal in sufficient time to have an (-significant-) impact before the DCU term expires. Heavy discounted NPV on DCU bargaining suggests that as well (although obviously other risks also apply in that calc.). And as you say, cash in bank at current rates before they start trimming …
Don’t mind you copying over but maybe refer to my posts here instead, and quote anything specific if needed, rather than copy full text? If it then gets mangled/misrepresented over there then I can’t respond. Appreciate some posters there may be interested but unlike ADV’s selective display, every post on LSE is publicly visible even without signing up, so it stays in context on the full thread. I know you meant well :)
Forgot to state that link will automatically download/open a pdf on your device, rather than open a webpage.
Senseman - yes 17.5% per scheme docs. It is applied after deducting the costs permitted by the scheme and after the FX conversion to £.
The costs I have used are as listed in the first Calculation Statement issued by Prax last September (hopefully this link works, it's on their website if not. Viewing this alongside my calcs below may help with the overall picture of what is likely):
https://www.prax.com/?downloadDoc=3807
In summary - transport downstream, port based charges and marketing.
It does look like your man was maybe quoting in $. Important also to note that the FX is applied to the total payment soon before it is made. The Sept statement shows a rate on 14 Sept, which I suspect is when Prax would draw down the funds from a $ account in good time to make sure they are available for payment at the end of the month.
The FX rate has unfortunately gone against DCU holders more recently, and will likely do so again in Sept if the US moves to cut rates before/faster than UK (and vice versa).
Senseman - thank you for your calculations below. Important I think to highlight - for anyone less knowledgeable or just skim reading these posts - that the increase per offload you have given is an effective net gain over time from having more frequent offloads due to a higher production rate. They don't correspond directly to each 'individual' offload DCU payments that will be receivable, rather that there is a chance of more offloads contributing to each half yearly payment over time, so the overall position gets closer to the 12.5p total.
I have run some indicative calcs on what each offload could pay at current time. There are assumptions built in here because of various unknowns, and I haven't tried to guess what average Brent would be receivable in any specific month (it was $84.94 applied to the last payment = payment of 0.309p per DCU).
For costs I have taken those detailed in the Sept 23 payment notice as indicative for each offload. For total DCUs from the scheme documents - 1,991,871,556. FX I have used recent average estimate of 1.265 £/$ (it was 1.25 applied last Sept). Offload volume held flat at 540k bbl for ease of comparison.
Indicative possible outcomes per 540k offload:
$pbbl - Gross$ - Costs$ - Net$ - £/$ FX - Equiv £ - % due - Total due £ - per DCU
$75 - 40.5m - $1.9m - $38.6m - 1.265 - £30.52m - 17.5% - £5,340,336 - 0.268p
$80 - 43.2m - $1.9m - $41.3m - 1.265 - £32.65m - 17.5% - £5,713,854 - 0.287p
$85 - 45.9m - $1.9m - $44.0m - 1.265 - £34.78m - 17.5% - £6,087,372 - 0.306p
$90 - 48.6m - $1.9m - $46.7m - 1.265 - £36.92m - 17.5% - £6,460,889 - 0.324p
Consensus here last month was that the end Dec/into Jan offload was 'unlikely' to be included in the upcoming payment (so 2 offloads - c.0.6p total per DCU), and that 3 offloads were then likely for the Sept 24 payment. It's all moving targets though so these are all just best guesses and not to be taken literally.
Prax will pay out whatever they think they should pay out from their reading of the scheme document and we will know in a month's time exactly what that will be (payment is due Thursday 28th March).
Best to all, and all the usual caveats and pub rules apply to the above ;o)
Further observations:
SP ticking up even without support from the BB this week;
Interesting volume of afterhours horse-trading being going on this week, with trade prices to three decimal which often indicates IIs are involved;
And here's the rub - it seems to have gone under the radar but there is now a half chance* that BOWL could be promoted to the FTSE250 next month. Just in line at close today I think, decision will be based on closing MCap on Tuesday and announced after close on Wednesday.
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* Let's call it 8 down with a clear chance at a spare in the 10th frame, extra ball wins the match on Tuesday ;o)
Still ticking up nicely here, and a nice dividend paid out today perhaps being re-invested will help.
Not entirely sure why the buybacks have stalled the last two weeks, perhaps the volatility has taken it outside a permitted daily/WAP range in the short term?