Member Info for Corryvreckan1

‘All’ recent upward progress lost? Only if you bought on Tuesday last week.

Nothing is yet ‘lost’. This is, currently, a ship tacking through the headwinds towards its destination. The glimmering lights of the port still beckon and we shall make our call, in time, if we can but avoid turbulence akin to the Biscay or the ‘Vreckan. For now, we chart a dance that changes our view each step of the way, from shore to sea and then back, closer again.

At the moment this looks to me like just a normal pullback within the overall uptrend, of which there have been several over the last year. It’s not yet a full retracement which would be down to the mid 120s (don’t jinx it Corry). Even Trump’s Tariff Tantrum created just a small retracement to the bottom of the channel but didn’t trigger a trend reversal.

Perfectly healthy standard market dynamics that may present another opportunity to buy in / top up for those who wish to if there are signs for the uptrend to continue – a decent update would obviously help. The SP nicely tagged my ‘secret’ 165p top of the channel late Monday and I’m now looking for a possible bounce no lower than low 140s when it meets the rising 50DMA ahead of the AGM (double jinxed now!).

That’s obviously IMHO and YMMV so DYOR.

The AGM update used to be a bit more detailed under ES, it even had bullet points and exciting things like actual numbers. MH chose a more restrained approach last year so will be interesting to see if he chooses to give any more detail this time.

News - 7am on the 24th.

London Stock Exchange is fine, ignore that comment in my last post, I forgot to zoom out their chart!

It was only a name change, not a new company. Depends on which charts you are using.

Some of them handled it correctly (Morningstar, IG, ii, etc.) and kept the history, others not so much (LSE and, disappointingly, the London Stock Exchange!).

The formatting of the RNS on this website is poor, much easier to read the original:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PAF/operational-update-record-half-year-gold-production-substantial-decrease-in-group-gearing-and-share-buyback-programme/17080617

PDF version should be on company website later as well.

FTSE 100 + FTSE 250 = FTSE 350 so even after today's dip it would go straight into the 250 (and therefore by default also the 350) based on today's MCAP (c.position 300 in the full 350 list) were it to notionally happen today.

Gamma Comms first announced intention to move from AIM to MM in September last year, confirmed it in December, and finally completed it on 2nd May, so it's not a quick process and 3-6 months is not unusual.

P142-143 in the listing rules doc for the table I was thinking of, but actually maybe not directly relevant here when it's just a change of market to list on rather than a new IPO. But just for rough indications of what main market listing involves.

A bit of fun/homework for you if you want to try to guess. Just for a broad idea based on now, as it would not be possible to know every aspect of what the listing would involve:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/raise-finance/equity/how-list-equity/calculating-fees

It's not quite a straightforward process to change and likely to take 3-6 months minimum, although I suspect that the Board have already prepared a lot of exploratory work to consider the possibility for the future.

Worth also noting that the FCA launched new listing rules in July last year, partly to reduce the costs and administrative burden to help keep London as a competitive market, amongst other reasons. Link to their discussion pages here:

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-overhauls-listing-rules-boost-growth-and-innovation-uk-stock-markets

And you can download the full listing rules here - somewhere in there are tables showing the likely professional costs etc. involved in going through the listing process, not cheap:

https://www.fca.org.uk/publications/policy-statements/ps24-6-primary-markets-effectiveness-review-feedback-cp23-31-final-uk-listing-rules

Trackers and others buying new listings/changes between indices should add more liquidity to the market but not necessarily a boost, e.g. many companies drift down for a period after moving up an index level and/or rise after moving down, until new trading ranges are established and funds loaded up, etc.

I'm generalising a lot but always better to DYOR.

‘WYCKOFF’ – no need for that kind of talk, I was trying to be nice ;o)

(I prefer Weinstein for the Stages, but with an important nod to Wyckoff for the earlier methodology)

The Bollingers are opening up again so keep your glass handy for a refill.

Nothing to see here, move along now. Just a breakout with increasing volume.

And a Stage 2 uptrend now firmly in place...oh my! :o)

No, the 'Indicative' changes were announced a week ago. Those have no bearing on today's review decision and the press release I linked earlier.

This was last week's indicative list so you can see that there have been changes, and it tells you at the top that the confirmed changes will be announced tonight. This happens every quarter.

https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2025/ftse-uk-index-series-indicative-annual-review-changes-june-2025

My timing is terrible, it's just been released:

https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2025/ftse-uk-index-series-annual-review-june-2025

My timing is terrible, it's just been released:

https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2025/ftse-uk-index-series-annual-review-june-2025

For some reason the London Stock Exchange are being really slow to issue their press release today, but I have the data direct from FTSE Russell and Wickes are to be promoted into the FTSE 250 later this month, effective from Monday 23rd.

Watch out for the official announcement sometime before market open tomorrow.

For some reason the London Stock Exchange are being really slow to issue their press release today, but I have the data direct from FTSE Russell and can confirm that GAMA are straight into the FTSE 250 later this month as expected.

Watch out for their official announcement sometime before market open tomorrow.

Back to normal this week and the MSCI Rebalance played out on Friday as indicated below. That seems the most likely explanation for last week's weirds.

Thanks laser. One slight downside to consider if there are more frequent smaller offloads is an increase in the transportation and port/handling costs that can be charged against DCUs, but very hard to value what that difference might be.

Nothing new seen on the Prax/Total deal.

Couple of new docs from RKH today but nothing clarified beyond what we already expected:

From their new Resource Evaluation: "...(FPSO) that is expected to be secured as part of the initial final investment decision (FID) for Sea Lion Field."

And from their corporate update: "FID anticipated H2 2025" / "Navitas targeting Sea Lion FID H2 2025". [Aurelia Energy previously indicated "mid 2025".]

(((pop)))

Well played Alnwick, enjoy the bubbly :o)

Technicals all still behaving nicely. Possible Stage 2 uptrend still intact, RSI trying again for the 70s.

Dojis and spinning tops all resolving themselves into a continued uptrend - that one’s just for you Alnwick ;o)

Would like to see a bit more volume to push it on but slow and steady works as well.

I won’t tell you that if we get through and hold above 151p then I have 165p plotted at the top of my current channel, because predictions like that tend to come back and bite you so I’ll keep it secret for now :o/

Drat, I’ve realised a boring fact based possible explanation which is now getting in the way of a juicy conspiracy I had brewing :(

The MSCI Global Indices rebalance this week, effective at close tomorrow. This happens at the end of every quarter F/M/A/N and there is always increased activity and weird trades at strange prices in the run up to the Friday as positions/options are rolled over and rebalanced etc.

Normally starts being visible around the Wednesday and then there is heightened activity after hours until the Friday when you will see UTs going through sometimes up to 10x the normal daily average. They try to do a lot of this off-book, after hours and through the UT to help keep an orderly market.

It’s more visible in the FTSE 350 sized companies but some of it will come through lower down as well. I’ve checked several others of the regular large companies I’ve seen this for before and similar higher priced trades and reversals appear on some of them too over the last two days.

Just a possible to consider, hopefully clearer tomorrow/back to normal Monday.

Now, where’s me tinfoil…