Member Info for Corryvreckan1

An ambush!!! Blimey, I didn’t see that coming ;)

Thank you DM, I may reply more seriously tomorrow.

DM – Thanks for replying, I can see now that you are looking at it in ‘relative’ terms to the Balance Sheet that wasn’t clear in your first post, whereas I was looking at it in pure monetary returns terms. Both views have value to consider when analysing the situation.

Although, I’m not sure I quite accept your ‘sweating’ comment when today’s RNS states: “Gamma has a strong balance sheet and a high level of recurring revenues. It continues to generate significant operating cash flow…” and the net debt is nearly gone even after the cash acquisition of Starface and last year’s shareholder returns.

A couple more observations:

Looking in more detail at previous buybacks:

2024 – announced in RNS 25/3/24 for up to £35m, ran to 6/9/24 and stopped at £27.3m

2025 – announced in RNS 25/3/25 for up to £50m, ran to 30/6/25 and stopped at £45.1m

I’m detecting a theme here…

They didn’t explain why either of those two programmes were left short of the indicative totals, so up to £85m (there’s that number again) expected over 2 years but only £72m actually spent. The next two years remain to be seen if history repeats!

Also, the details in today’s RNS about buybacks and, specifically, dividends are more normally expected to come in a company’s Full Year results, as they have been here in March the previous 2 years. Pushing that out in a relatively brief TU at this point looks a little bit desperate to support the share price at it’s current lows (not in itself a bad thing, but still…).

However, granted, ‘redirecting’ from any dividend growth to support buybacks is perhaps a wise choice when the share price is this low and someone(s) still seems to be offloading?

16:52 " the price would likely be sliding back toward 880p. The fact it's holding suggests the big institutions believe the Board is serious.” – that's day one, the week is not yet over and there is now a pesky gap to be filled to 883p. And maybe don’t look at how the US markets closed tonight…;o)

I hope my future outlook is wrong and I’m genuinely trying to present a balanced view here but I’m struggling to find it, so the wider discussions today are welcome to challenge any bias.

* Fek - £85m

* up to $85m, not £95m.

DM - "The buy backs are massively bigger." I'm missing something here?

Last year's buyback was announced for up to £50m and they stopped it at £45m and that took just 3 months.

This year they are indicating up to £42.5m by the end of the year, with a further £42.5m in the following year.

The 2024 programme was £27m and that was completed over 5-6 months, so it's an annual increase on that but this year is down on last year.

Over the two comparative two year periods they are moving from £72m to "up to" £95m so there is an overall increase indicated on that time scale, but not sure it warrants the description "massive" and they are generating much more cash now so perhaps not unusual/unexpected (use of cash for Starface and other potential takeovers aside)?

Plus the dividend will now be frozen at 22.2p for the next two years so it could be seen as an overall fall back in returns on an 'annual' basis in real terms?

And there it finally is, more than 6 years since last seen ‘FTSE 250’ is confirmed in bright lights on the London Stock Exchange [near top right]:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SAGA/saga-plc/company-page

Rejoice and be merry :o)

Then pray that the courts are not having a bad day on Thursday and that Bakkavor get the big heave sanctioned as well…

And then go back into hibernation for a few more weeks so that you are not tempted to sell your shares ;o)

Yeah - HL, Aberdeen, HBOS, Barclays (c.18%) will mostly be Retail nominee holdings.

And you can be sure that if Institutions want to buy in now at a certain price then there are ways to achieve that by 'encouraging' sellers...

Flip side is that increased liquidity through trading at different price points does generally help future growth. This has a long way to run yet...

I haven't seen Saga announce the TU date yet, but it was 30th last two years so likely around that time.

rupans – are you thinking about month end fund balancing for unit pricing, benchmarking etc. So in effect the Trackers ensuring the average weighting of their holdings etc. meet the terms of their scheme documents, or something similar?

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Further detail from FTSE Russell to explain why the change will happen on Monday:

Please note that the effective date within the FTSE Russell indices is based on the last day of dealings on a cleared environment for Bakkavor Group (UK) being Friday 09 January 2026. The company will be moved to an un-cleared trading segment on SETSqx on the London Stock Exchange, with effect from Monday 12 January 2026, due to the corporate event out-turn. To avoid the inclusion of a SETSqx security, FTSE Russell will implement the event with the timing as set out below: [12th January 2026]

* point. I meant point.

It sounds like Alnwick is taking care of the pint ;o)

Rupans - I don't get your pint there.

FTSE Russell have stated in an RNS that it will be on Monday (see my posts on 7/1). However, they have also stated that it is subject to a court sanction that doesn’t take place until Thursday 15th, which seems inconsistent.

Looking further into this, the change appears to be needed on Monday as Bakkavor will no longer be eligible for inclusion then due to another reason:

“** The effective date is based on the date Bakkavor Group will be moved to un-cleared SETSqx due to the out-turn of the corporate event, as the value of the contingent value right is currently unknown.”

Therefore, Saga need to be added on Monday regardless to keep the index at 250 constituents.

It will then still be subject to the court sanction, which I have already noted should be a formality. I don’t know what or when will change back if it does not get passed (don’t jinx it Corry!).

I’m tracking this very closely and will post up anything I see to further confirm the situation as it progresses. The next clue will be a change on the LSEG website on Monday morning.

Likely to be the 28th this year, same day as AGM.

In other news that might explain the blip up just now:

https://www.ii.co.uk/news/uk-ministers-to-u-turn-on-pub-business-rates-rise-within-days-al1767880598212555200

Further to my post last night, Greencore/Bakkavor have confirmed today that the court hearing for the takeover is still expected next Thursday, 15th, with the Bakkavor shares being delisted wef Monday 19th. So the FTSE 250 change remains 'subject to' the takeover being sanctioned although as I said it should be a formality at this stage as G/B had already met all other requirements by December, including satisfying the CMA conditions.

It looks like FTSE Russell have gone early with their notice and I'm not understanding the logic of that yet; they previously would have issue that in the week of the court hearing. I'll let you know if they issue a correction for a possible typo of the "12th" instead of the 19th ;o)

Year End TU is next Tuesday, 13th. Website calendar was updated with 2026 dates today:

https://gammagroup.co/company/investors/financial-calendar/

That webpage layout is a disaster IMHO (scroll down for the dates) especially for a 'tech' company in the FTSE 250.

And what's with the purple 'dog' thing ???

For info:

This sometimes happens outside of the usual quarterly FTSE review, in cases like this when an index member gets taken over and is then delisted, so no need for Saga to wait until March.

Saga are currently the highest ranked qualifying company by MCap outside of the FTSE 250 so the rule is that they get promoted to replace the company (Bakkavor) that is leaving.

But, I'm confused by this as was not expecting it until later next week. The notice says "Subject court sanctioning the Scheme of Arrangement in relation to the Acquisition of Bakkavor Group". The court hearing was not expected until Thursday 15th (but may have been brought forward?). Regardless, the hearing should just be a formality at this stage of the takeover so would expect to go through anyway. Hurrah!

Official RNS from FTSE Russell:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GNC/greencore-group-ygzc5m6bybq2wmg.html

Ron - thanks for replying, that's very helpful.

Cheers, Corry.

Bumping up this previous question if anyone can help:

The Company Creditors includes £5,971,523.24 for DCUs which appears to be the total amount that was due on 30th Sept. Can anyone who received a cheque please confirm if that exact total appeared on the statement you received, as they haven’t posted it on the website this time? Thank you.

Laser - Teneo might issue some kind of update earlier than April, particularly now that Serica have completed, but otherwise April is the regulatory requirement for 6 months since last update. We still have no confirmation on the 'Economic Date' implications. Hopefully any direct creditors that might receive an update will post it up here or the other forum, or maybe the brokers will pass it on for nominee accounts.

Although Serica have now settled the £14.5m, a reminder from my post last month:

“A retention of £1.0m (of the Consideration paid on the Completion Date) will be held by the Joint Administrators until 30 April 2026 and is repayable to the Purchaser under certain confidential circumstances specified in the sale agreement.”

I don't want to commit to any likely pay-out value at this time due to the unknowns still to be resolved.

"Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ) is pleased to announce that, following receipt of NSTA consent for change of control, the acquisition of PUL from Prax Exploration & Production has now completed.

Serica has settled the consideration of £14.5 million ($18.9 million) for the acquisition, and has assumed the cash balance held by PUL on completion amounting to the equivalent of $34 million (of which $12 million is currently restricted to cover expected Serica commitments on FPSO demobilisation).

The Lancaster field is currently producing around 5,900 boepd, with this production now added to the Serica portfolio total going forward. It is expected that the Lancaster field will cease production by the middle of 2026, when the Aoka Mizu FPSO leaves the area.

Completion of the TotalEnergies and ONE-Dyas acquisitions, signed by PUL which is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Serica, continue to be expected in H1 2026.

Serica is pleased to welcome employees from PUL into the business, with Alessandro Agostini joining the Executive Leadership Team as Chief Non-operated Joint Ventures Officer, overseeing Serica's interests in the Triton area and other non-operated assets. Alessandro led the expansion of Edison from Italy into the UK and managed its UKCS portfolio of production and exploration assets, before joining Prax Upstream and leading its development via the acquisition of Hurricane Energy and subsequent Greater Laggan Area and Catcher and GEAD transactions."