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Anyone has full access to this article?

https://www.law360.com/financial-services-uk/articles/1823267/vanquis-bank-seeks-4-5m-for-law-firm-s-complaints-deluge

Any particular reason for this sudden spike? Or is it another false alarm.. hope not. GLA>

Lets hope so Xenor... asap would be nice. As JW says, there are other options if UKEF £200m doesn't go ahead, I remember he mentioned in his interview that they could have negotiated a finance deal with others along time ago. BUT... at what cost... more likely to be expensive. So hope it goes forward. Sorry, I think i am overwhelming this board with my none sense. No more for today. Gday. GLA.

Twib talks about 18p,25,30p but actually 75% of CEO and CFO's share options are only granted if the share price reaches a minimum of 37.50p - 100p! 3-10x from here sounds good. Besides they need to achieve this before end of 2025 or else it expires. 😂

What I like about most is the LTIP programme, fully aligned with shareholders. JW CEO and Arun CFO are essentially granted options that total 10% of the company's share capital. 35% of those options are granted the following share prices reach the following:

2023: Share price must average at least 37.50p.

2024: Share price must average at least 46.88p.

2025: Share price must average at least 58.60p.

Another 35% is awarded if:

Half are awarded if the share price averages at least 60p for 60 days.

The remaining half if the share price averages at least 100p for 60 days, both achievable any time up to the end of 2025.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HARL/long-term-incentive-plan-ltip-mn8y456rssgtggx.html

These targets are very much aligned to what we shareholders want... so I believe the structure and incentives are there for JW and Arun to do what they can to achieve share price of 37.5p-100p. If achieve 100p, they essentially awarded 10% of the company.. sounds alright to me.

@Wyn - nice TA and insights. where the price could decrease to your estimates of 11.75p, representing a potential loss of 1.25p. But for a potential reward of re-rating to for instance 17.75p. The Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1.25 / 4.75 ≈ 0.263x. If my calculations are correct, would that be a reasonable assumption u think?

Seems a good enough bet. But of course i am optimistic about surpassing the initial target of 17.75p in the long term. IMO DYOR

Yes I've topped up today although from technical analysis perspective, the RSI is still showing signs of overbought. RSI around 70... so one could argue that it is very risky to top up now but I think at 22mil market cap, the down side is limited unless it goes bust. However, I think quite a lot of news in the pipeline so this could drive higher and also risk not to be holding when refinancing news can be imminent as Xenor mentions. IMO,DYOR.

Xenor - ideally deal to be imminent. In reality, such a massive deal involving the government is going to take time especially controversy around 100% guarantee considered as a "bailout" government too politcal and move too slowly.. interesting read about this topic: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ministers-accused-backdoor-bailout-harland-wolff-8xtfmfdb8

ChatGPT's take on the timeline:

Given the stages outlined (ministerial approval, independent assessment, firming up bank syndicates, and final approvals), and comparing to similar cases in corporate financing under government guarantee schemes, a likely timeline could span from 6 to 12 months. If starting in January 2024 with the independent assessment, a reasonable guess might be that the loan could be finalized around mid to late 2024, possibly around June to September 2024. This is speculative and assumes that there are no unforeseen delays or complications.

The entire SOWEC budget is GBP 500 million of which includes 45 projects that applied to the SIM. 10 priority projects identified. Other category is progress projects and there are 19 which includes Harland and Wolff.

£500m budget from SOWEC is for all the 45 projects, of which Harland is only considered as a progress project (Not priority projects ) so I am not sure if the entire £300 million will be coming from SOWEC since that's most of the budget. I guess JW proposed this idea to SOWEC whether they accept or allocate how much of the budget is yet to be confirmed and quite early I believe. Still early stages and lacking a lot of details but good step in the right direction. IMO, DYOR

500m budget- https://www.offshorewind.biz/2024/01/25/offshore-wind-projects-worth-gbp-500-million-move-forward-in-scotland/

45 projects - https://www.offshorewind.biz/2024/04/02/sowec-expands-priority-list-adds-seven-projects-to-sim-funding-round/

Interest rate paid to Riverstone is SOFR 5.3% + 9% = 14.3% + the extra 1% extension = around 15.3%... which is too expensive over the long-term. A refinance package backed by UKEF I estimate would probably reduce the rate to around 7-8% which would be massive saving. Anything lower than that would be a bonus.

Topped up again. Falkland deal hoping to go through soon hopefully. That would be significant boost to the pipeline. Finance deal will take a bit of time, I expect in h2 before September, that's when they would need to pay Riverstone another 1% to extend for another 6 months (0.5%, 1%,1% per 6 months of extension) before the deadline March 2025. Therefore a race to get the deal done at least by then. They will have to start exploring other options if not done by end of year.

Agree Rizzel. firstly hope some settlement news around CMCs can be sorted. Every day costing the company lots of money in complaints (complaints costs including FOS case fees (charge £750 per case). From the interview last time, I understood the provisions set aside for complaints is around £30-40 millions a year... which is significant on earnings.

Thanks for the explanation Xenor.

As suspected the 50k sellers still there unfortunately. Can't wait until funding is sorted and those will be mopped up pretty quickly.

Xenor, thanks for sharing the intel on IG. When it mentions 18% shorts on IG, what does that even mean? Does it mean the total amount of HARL investments on IG, 18% are shorts and 82% are long?

Nice buys this morning. MMs quickly raising the ask price. Hope the 50k sellers are done... but I have my doubts. We shall see later today. If they are done then we could see this gradually rise substantially on demand outstripping supply. IMO, DYOR

Added.

20mil Market cap for a company generating 100s of millions and potentially billions in pipeline in the medium term seems out of wack.

Finance deal + more deals should help correct the valuation and attract larger IIs. IMO, DYOR.

Almost 14p.. just 4 pennies away from where we were before polar capital decided to dump at 4p... how quickly things have turned. Proper rollar coaster ride.

Those who wanted to sell cos of delisting news have probably already sold and for day traders in it for quick profit, have also probably sold at this price. So supply is probably quite limited, any buys will drive this up wildly. Hopefully back to 18p where we were before the news.IMO, DYOR.

Nice rise today. Onwards and upwards. back to 20p and then 30p where it should have been if Polar didn't sell.

Hi Wyn, thanks for sharing your valued opinions, will follow this thread! Does that mean you will be selling if he hits the RSI 80 and then buy back in lower? Or u will still hold longer period?

IMO, I am not sure i'll be selling even tho RSI toppy currently, since the spreads are relatively large which doesn't really help to trade this one. Besides could be a bit risky to sell in case financing deal gets sorted tomorrow and more deals announced. Further to go this one at current market cap, fingers crossed.