Member Info for CommandoKai

Based on very little apart from other takeovers I've been part of, they usually go for around half of estimated value, -10%, So I reckon a decent offer that might be accepted would be a 4-1 share offer which is about 3.5p per share assuming IOG share price holds up. Hopefully I'm underestimating though. Topped up with a little spare change, wish I had a bit more available, cant see it any less than where we are now, and if it were, I doubt it would be accepted, so pretty good risk reward IMO either way.

After the inital disappointment, but not surprise, at the conservative dividend, it actually makes good sense how they are handling the payouts, as long as Liberum's "metal windfall" dividend is correct then that's around 4.5p total when you add in the 1.6p. Which is what I was originally hoping for (~7% at 64p) which is very respectable and should underpin the SP and falls in line with Liberum's earlier estimate. They have doubled the regular dividend but if basket prices weakens then they wont have to cut the divi next year and have more room to keep raising it, a dividend cut makes far worse headlines and sentiment afterall. Plus it makes sense to withold the special dividend until after the winter just incase there is another Covid spike and lockdown which may require a cash cushion to get through.
They could have been clearer about the likely size of the special dividend and not hidden it away in the details, but apart from that very happy with the situation on reflection. But if they stiff us again on the special for no good reason then I'm out.

We might be off to the races, hopefully 63p will act as support now.
Biggest short term risk is a disappointingly conservative dividend announcement on Tuesday IMO.
But the higher the price goes the more they may up the divi, and if they arent being tight the share price might really rocket!

Well that explains the jump today, any buyers should wait for the usual pullback after the hype settles again, 120p target is nice but sounds like a one year target to me, I may top slice a few at that level but my target is more like £3 assuming around £18mil profit and a PE of 20, which doesnt seem too demanding for this type of profitable growing business model, but my time frame for that is more like 3-4 years and we get a bit of dividend interest while we wait.

I'm guessing 2.5p which is 5% of an average share price assumption of 50p, sure they could pay much more (and I hope they do) but with the whole Covid and lock down uncertainty going on I feel they are likely to be more conservative if anything, it could be a lot less.
I'd prefer if they paid us in dividends than these share buybacks though, cancel them and bump the divi up I say.

https://www.savannah-energy.com/downloads/200731_SAVE%20-%20FY19%20Results%20first%20glance.pdf
Nothing particularly inspiring, but still.

Thanks, didnt know about the 90th hurdle, still some way to go then, the 10th lowest is around £3.7 billion. Still the way this share is flying might only be a year or two if it keeps this growth up.

Unless I'm missing something isn't Games Workshop about to enter the FTSE 100 at the next review in September? There current market cap is above 5 or 6 of the current lowest from what I can find. I can understand why they may not have made it in during the March madness but they should have made it in June already but didn't for some reason.
Must be getting very close at least if it keeps climbing, if it makes it that should give it another solid boost with all the tracker funds etc having to buy in to the small pool of available shares, or have I over looked something?

Heres a useful guide I found on filling it out
https://www.alliancetrustsavings.co.uk/guides-forms/W8-Ben_guidance_notes.pdf

The decline is largely linked to negative sentiment of the sector when Burford Capital , the sector leader, was criticsed for creative accounting practices exaggerating their worth, LIT however practices very conservative and transparent accounting practices but still got tarred with the same brush as they operate in the same sector, if you compare the charts of both you will see that LIT was over £1 when Burford went off a cliff and has bled lower ever since along with further falls in Burford. Personally I think Burford is still too questionable to trust even though it may have more immediate upside after such large falls, but they have debt and are trying to force growth too hard for my liking. The market should start to give credit to LIT for it's progress as the results do the talking eventually, it could take a few years but they seem good value right now for the large growth potential plus small divi which they have announced they will pay annually around Sep/Oct, 1.7p I saw suggested by one analyst, so around 2.75% on current prices.

Just bought in for £10.3k, I kicked myself for not pulling the trigger on Burford which then went on to 10 bag, this looks like an even better play, cashed up, multiple scaleable new growth avenues, low market cap that can easily multiply when the sector comes back in to fashion, has nothing to do with any potential shady accounting practices at Burford, bring on the 10 bagger! ;)

I was thinking of moving on from this company, I became worried that perhaps Ory's buying was just blind loyalty to the company he founded. But now the new CEO has invested a meaningful chunk as well at these levels it suggests to me that a fresh pair of experienced eyes can also see the value and has real confidence this weakness is temporary, nobody is going to throw away 232K if they think its not looking good no matter how rich they are, if it were a token buy it 'd be more like 100k shares not a high random number like the 879,973 he bought, that suggests to me he put in everything he had spare.
They also have no debt so not really in any difficulty, so although it may take several years to return toit's former glory I feel happier to hold out for a much higher price than this at least. Of course if either of these two start to sell, we should all head for the hills.

I'm sure thats what they are trying to find out from Google, but knowing how left wing Google is it wouldnt surprise me to be antisemitism, not that we will ever get to know that. But hopefully it's an error or new criteria which can be adjusted to, maybe even benefited from in the long run if they can discover what it is, even if they are not directly told, as XLM are well experienced at this after all.

I mean if they had a load of debt and were in a precarious position I could understand the drop, but they're not, they could always just take a bigger slice off the dividend or perhaps suspend it for a year, last time I checked they had a comfortable cash cushion to cope with any setbacks like this, they may even find out some kind of human error and get the rankings back before long.

It's not a loss until it's crystalized by selling or the company going bust, but if you cant wait then it is bad news, however most of thier revenue is comission from existing signups, so while this may dent growth in the short term it wont have much impact on current earnings I hope, not 33% worth at least.
Shouldnt be risking 100k in any single share IMO, unless you're Warren Buffet or Bill Gates.

I bought them a week before you at the lofty price of a whole 5quid, I was inteding to scale in more but other shares stole my attention and I assumed I had missed my chance as I originally had a £10 target, thought I was lucky to then sell half at over £50, but they just keep on motoring up, with a few retraces. Still, considering my main rationale for investing was I expected the Total War PC game to give them a big boost, I never expected to be over 20k up from a few grand and still going, so I can't complain really, who said computer games are a waste of time? Thank you Total War!

Indeed, private traders sold because no obvious short term catalyst, II's seeing the medium to long term potential with a decent, if probably reduced, dividend in the mean time.
Ory added again, so he still has confidence in the outlook. Far riskier unprofitable companies you could end up moving to than this share, so I'm happy to hold for now, as I already have a large enough position, but a great entry point for first time holders IMO, just dont expect fireworks for a while.
Perhaps wait for a likely dividend cut to get an even better bargain.

I think they might have these guys in their sights, Ping Petroleum, purely because its a manageable size for their first aquisition and they would have been aware of their sale when pitching to institutions of potential targets.
Just a wild guess for bragging rights if it turns out to be correct
They currently make about £4mil a year profit, so perhaps £20mil to buy
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/213180/change-of-ownership-on-the-cards-for-north-sea-minnow/

Indeed, and for anyone that may have missed his recent previous buys, he's been hoovering up as many as he can get his hands on too, these are not just small token buys like some companies do for PR, he can obviously see the value to be buying so big multiple times and he knows the current state of the business so about as good an indicator of the prospects as you can get and although I think its going to be slow, if the US opens up the gambling market or Trump does us a favour by pushing it forward then this share could really take off to 10 bagger territory from here. The biggest threat is probably more regulation from the likes of the EU as they try and control the internet, the sooner we can get away from them the better.

I originally bought in around £1.20 but have since averaged down to 84p and hoping it stays at these levels for a few more months so I can average down some more, at under 100m market cap, hardly any debt, good cash balance, high margins with low over heads/capex and the previous CEO increasing his major skin in the game, plus a juicy dividend to boot, cant see a better risk reward out there right now without putting too big a perecntage of your portfolio in obviously, I cant get enough of these right now at anything under 53p, I reckon 100% gain by this time next year and 200% quite possible too, maybe further out, and if not it' is surely underpinned at around these levels by the dividend unless they hit a major setback, but then that could happen to any company