The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Never thought we'd see 250ish p before the dividends on no real negative news, repaying the bond is positive IMO, shows they have confidence and it gets debt out of the risk factors.
I was already over exposed, but freed up another 21k from SLP to add more here, even though SLP itself has amazing fundamentals, pretty confident I can derisk again at similair prices to this at least in the few months after the divi, and as long as the dividends keep rolling in then even if the SP doesnt hold up, it will still pay for itself in a few years.
Barring of course a major black swan event or price of oil collapse, that seems unlikely for any long period with the lack of oil supply and virtue signalling sanctions on Russia.
Watch it drop to 200p, or less of course, now Ive given it the kiss of death.
To get back in again once the deal does complete, but the story is not that unlikely in principle, a simiiar thing did happen to scupper a Seplat deal very recently, of the course they did announce it, but governments have got their eyes on the mouth watering oil profits, even our own, so personally I'll sleep better taking the risk off the table for now until it's finalized.
I got Thungela wrong when I bailed out too early at 5 quid and it went on to 13ish now, so maybe thats a good sign to ignore this, but Ive been in these a several of years now, still waiting for some dividends that were promised by now, yet still seem further away than ever.
These rumours of the deal collapse might well be fake news, but I didnt like the way they announced the results after hours, too many red flags for my liking, something doesnt feel right, so I'm out, not that you should care of course, but perhaps just reconsider your risk levels in these.
Good luck if you're braver than I am.
Oh great, of course this was announced today, I sold out 23k shares late yesterday at what I thought was the top of the recent range hoping to get more shares when it did its usual drop, instead Ive just bought back 20k shares at 10% higher!
Oh well a great announcement, just a day too late for my liking!
Congrats to everyone that sat on their hands yesterday.
Although on further thought I'm being too harsh on the hedges, if thats the new average after the latest hedges then that's fair enough, I think I wrongly assumed those were the prices they got for the new hedges, which seemed too far below spot prices for my liking.
Nope, it's already at 4.25 cents for the upcoming one as it was for the last one we had, the next one isnt increasing apart from the more favourable USD - GBP exchange rate, they are saying its an increase from the same period last year when it was at 4 cents.
But yes it is likely to increase again in the future, just not yet.
Whilst the higher hedges are probably prudent, I'm disappointed they arent closer to the current spot prices and not much exposure left if gas prices get even stronger from here, it reduces risk but also the rewards if this is just the start of strong gas prices.
I3e what a hero!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxN_6ZiQCA4&t=338s
That'll help it rebound a bit faster but traders jumping in and out for this bigger one dont want to hold for months with oil price volatility etc.
Just warning people dont panic sell because you see it drop a chunk on the 28th+, its just the usual shake out of the short term money that will gradually return over the next few months, barring any actual operational or oil price collapse of course.
a final 5k shares top up this morning, I can see a very likely drop after ex-divi of a bigger % than the actual divi, but it could move up just as much before then so I didnt wanna risk the wait.
But for some, especially the day before ex-divi date you may want to skip this divi and get in at a lower price and potentially make more, or risk a bit less in the first place. I wouldnt be surprised if it dropped 15-20% on a few days from the 28th, but of course if the oil price takes off or the GBP keeps weakening against the Dollar you may not get such a good opportunity.
Yes, GKP has more historical problems and baggage, there were also a lot of disgruntled shareholders in i3E with how their North Sea progress was unfolding before they got in to the Canadian assets. But situations can be turned around as it seems to me they have been at GKP since.
You get a much bigger dividend for holding to reward you for accepting the extra political risk, altough production growth will likely be slower, its all unhedged oil, so if you expect the oil price uptrend to generally continue in the medium term as I do, then the oil price will drive the growth in the share price and even if they just maintain their share price, with approx 20%ish yields you get your original stake back in 5 years, but it is much riskier I grant you in the short term and very exposed to oil price swings lower, still they have net cash now and have been payed almost all arrears from the KRG so it's not like the KRG dont want to pay up, it just gets delayed some months.
Anyway I'm split 50/50 between i3E and GKP, I like both equally for different reasons, but each to their own. You definitely need to be more tolerant of risk and wild swings with GKP than i3E.
If youre looking for a bigger dividend, then I would recommend taking a look at Gulf Keystone (GKP), they are paying just under 9% just in their next divi alone which you have until the 27th of this month to get into, plus another 2-3% a few months later, and probably even more later in the year if oil prices stay at these levels or better, the only downside is they will likely have a scary drop on theiur ex dividend day as traders there just for the big divi jump out to something else, will probably drop 10-15% for a month or so after, but as long as you dont panic they should recover again as they are raking in the cash, but there is also slightly more political risk as their operations are in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, still the yield to me seems worth the risk, and at least its not in Russia, like some people are gambling on with shares like Polymetal. DYOR and all that of course.
I fear you thought it was 1.05p every month, alas its 1/10th of that each month, so for you if you bought 100k shares at 29p it would be just over 2.53% (£735 total divided by 7 payments if you held till the end of the year) till the end of the year, so not amazing, you may want to wait for a pullback if the dividend is your main attraction, for me it's just a sweetner as I'm hoping for at least 50p target price in 1-2 years, before taking some profits.
I bought 100,000 shares myself last week, the dividend works out at £105 each month (0.0105p divided by 10 payments from when they started), ex dividend date for May was today (14th) so youve just missed the May 6th divi, but there are still 7 of the promised 10 left every month till the end of the year, with a probable increase in 2023 assuming everything keeps going as well as it has been of course.
Well that bodes well for the share price if supply is drying up, but I had no problem buying 100k shares in one go, mid morning on Interactive Investor.
I think I heard mention of results on the 15th of this month on that video I posted earlier, but maybe I confused it with another company he was talking about, the sound quality wasnt as great as the analysis.
Just read that Motely Fool piece, the writer is correct in cosnidering the oil/gas price downside risk but seems to totally ignore the production growth potential and the possible huge Serenity catalyst as a cherry on top.
As oil and gas companies go, you'll be hard pressed to find better value IMO, apart from arguably Serica. So the author can maybe buy a few of my shares when we reach 50p when he realises he F'ed up with this overly pessimistic appraisal of i3e.
As for the TSX, it probably will help drive fair value here, as the Canadians start to spot how undervalued i3e is against its peers there. I see the dual listing as a positive, with how slow and unloved the oil/gas sector has been on the UK market, that's only just starting to change recently, but still has a long way to go.
Yeah great line, lets surf it!
Also not sure if this has been posted at the time but for anyone that missed it, this is an excellent video on i3e's value from a guy that used to work on the same Canadian oil fields, so knows the area well, also has an impressive SQZ valuation too, which I'm also a big holder of. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKTtOcL11Fo&t=2572s
Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe we are getting some results on the 15th? Which should be strong, perhaps even a dividend hike.
I think they are gonna have a strong run up to them and another re-rate after, so picked up 100k shares in my ISA, had to temporarily sell another share I was very bullish on because the prospects here are better in the short term plus a dividend if it stays under the radar for another year, but fair value for this has got to be at least 50p a share, and thats without success at Serenity.
With my timing of course it will now proceed to drop back to 20p no doubt, but if it does I'll have more funds cleared in to my Isa to double up again, such great management, assets and value at these levels, just a question of how long it takes them to be fairly valued IMO.
Received mine in Interactive Investor, no excuse other brokers cant do the same for a FTSE 100 divi paid in GBP, but I wouldnt be too concerned unless you're desperate to use it today, just annoying but it should be on its way.
Natural Gas UK is the price that Serica is on, the other should be the gas price in the US and you can tell because it is priced in dollars not pence, its also much lower as the US has plenty of natural gas and really has only risen lately because some is being turned into liquid natural gas and shipped over here to take advantage of the much higher prices, I watch both because I'm invested in Serica for the UK gas price and Diversified Energy (DEC) which is affected by the US price. TFT gas price is bascially the price of gas for the rest of Europe, which does have an influence on UK prices as it affects the price of any imports but not directly tied to Serica.
If any of that makes sense, or perhaps Ive been getting it wrong.
Last at 8th based on Ben Graham's bargain rating, not on Simon Thompson's personal preference, outlooks or other valuation methods.