The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Jab1tt, that article is behind a pay wall, how do they describe the dividend if they mention it? A cut or a hike?
Yes, it's very confusing the way they pay out the divis, I wish they would have fixed dates, but I think we can all agree this is still a hike and not a cut as the media have painted it.
I posted about this same issue happening a year or two ago, which rocked the share price back then as well because it was wrongly reported as a cut by the press.
Indeed, Its actually a big dividend hike! The press have made this mistake about the dividend before as it rises so fast, they keep comparing it to a half yearly dividend instead of quarterly, we may get a correction to the articles that may help us bounce, although the most of the damage has been done with the early misinformation. I think this false reporting in conjunction with their cautious statement on trading conditions has been conflated in to trouble by many, but the dividend has actually had a big rise and of course there are issues until Covid restrictions are over, which seems to be on the horizon. GAW have form in being conservative and under promising but over delivering, so I'm not particularly worried to hold a large position here, the only thing holding them back from even more impressive growth appears to be the virus. Can't see this dip lasting too long, but the share price did need to take a breather after its recent runs.
It's only a weak buy IMO because it already has a premium growth value baked in, but if you're looking to take your first position this pullback seems like a good opportunity.
Why bother stealing catalytic converters when you can just buy cheap shares in SLP? Criminally undervalued but legal to profit from....
Unless you use the proceeds to buy more SLP shares I guess.
indeed, that was one of the main boxes ticked, major skin in the game and a probable block to an undervalued hostile takeover. Okay you've convinced me (not that I needed much convincing obv) to get a starting position at least, I wont have the bulk in until the new ISA year anyway, maybe it will have its pullback then, £3.5k going in for now.
Dont usually copy Justin Waite's picks but I'm thankful he brought my attention to this one, ticks so many boxes I was looking for, just wish I'd discovered it back when it was a quid. Trying to wait for a dip to get a starting position, but the FOMO is strong for this one as the potential is mouth watering, so not sure if I can resist or if I should even, the only thing stopping me is the chance that more Brexit uncertainty could pull it back a little in the very short term, although doesnt seem to have affected it today, so argghhhhhhh!
While the medium term outlook for nickel is very bullish and HZM should be able to enter production on both assets in time to capture at least some of that demand, solid state batteries that I believe require no or very little nickel are in development by Toyota and others. Solid state batteries are safer and can be charged much faster, which is the key to really mass adoption of EV's IMO, who wants to sit around for several hours when a petrol car takes 2 mins to fill?
Toyota reckon 2025 at the earliest before solid state batteries are ready and probably 2030ish when they will be available for mass production, but it will still take time for car makers to switch over after investing in current battery facilities, still, dont rely on nickel battery demand forever, luckily the stainless steel market should keep growing albeit at a slower pace, so that underpins the investment case for nickel and why I'm happy to be invested here, as it seems most likely HZM will get acquired long before the technology changes.
If you've done well but you're uncomfortable with the size of your holding, just take some profits, perhaps your original investment, then worst case scenario you havent lost anything (apart from gains), I wish I'd done that several times, especially in pre-revenue companies. This is my largest single holding now after it doubled for me, but I feel comfortable with holding such a profitable cheap company with no debt and chunky dividends covering some of the risk.
I hope I dont regret this one too in the future.
That's just what I was about to point out, I would rather we got some increases in the other two than Rhodium, a) because an equivalent dollar (not %) rise is worth more in the other two, and b) so we are not quite so over exposed to any Rhodium pullback/dip in the future.
Going by their broker forecast, who should have as good idea as anyone, it suggests 3p, but if this Covid hysteria/paranoia continues who knows what they will be willing to pay out when we get there.
15-20% should be easily achievable by then, might get that in a month.
I'm just hoping a Biden win is already largely priced in to markets not that I want him to, and I think the polls have gotten it wrong again, a Trump win would send everything on a relief rally I think, the market must prefer a low tax businessman to a senile communist surely.
Oh and I think the dividend should be safe unless the proverbial hits the fan worse than in March, which I can't see happening, but their stated strong commitment to the full and growing dividend back then when others were cutting is the reason I've been waiting to pick them up at a good level like this.
I agree, I looked today at £10k sitting in my current account doing nothing useful, then looked at this relatively safe share with around 10% interest plus a good chance at 70%+ capital growth in a few years if I dont need it all before then and it was a no brainer at these support levels, got them at £1.78.
Perhaps I should have scaled in as more dips are certainly likely in the next few months with US election, Covid and Brexit, but it could just as easily take off on various positive news, so I'd rather miss out on some extra gains than miss out all together on what is basically a great savings account of a share.
Lots of people cashing in their scrip dividends today, but with the current and potential yields on offer plus growth once this Covid hysteria blows over I'm holding firmly on to mine, wish I could add more at these levels.
Surprised this only moved us up 5% today, the main thing I saw that was going to slow growth was being able to fund larger deals, this makes them more manageable, gives DGOC approx 60% of the profit once up and running for only 50% of the cost and allows them to get control of assets that would otherwise have been out of their league, plus the huge endorsement of their management and model that another company is willing to trust them with up to a $1billion investment! What's not to like? Just wish I'd backed the truck up when they dropped into the 60p area, if only it had happened a month later when the new ISA allowance was available I would have. Feel much happier about holding what I do have now though, think the market is slow to catch on how good this news is for the growth prospects here now and the ever swelling dividend outlook.
If you take the lower end of that guidance of A$30m strip out A$12.5m costs IF they are the same as this year and convert that A$17.5m to GBP, that's £9.85m, lets round it up a little to £10m, give it a market average PE of say 15 which is reasonable for a company doing well, (if not cheap) and that would be a market cap of £150m, roughly double the current market cap in a year.
And that's the low end of guidance and PE estimation unless I'm missing something?
Of course the costs could be higher, but they would have to balloon massively to spoil the party IF their guidance is reached, let alone surpassed.
I did top slice a 5th today because of the lack of dividend and because I was over exposed, but starting to kick myself already, I may buy back again if it dips significantly this week.
MajorThomas, that's the same as my guess earlier, stop copying me ;)
Not saying it will be accepted, but that seems a reasonable starter offer which is worth consideration at least, unlike the Reabold lowball insult, considering there are still drilling risks it wouldnt be a bad result IMO, personally it would double my average so I could leave half in for a free run and if the drilling did fail there are other IOG assests to fall back on, admittedly less upside potential but a safety net on negative results.
I pulled it out of thin air or somewhere else less clean, you very rarely get fair value, the other company is looking for a bargain, why pay full price. I may be wrong on the 4-1, I but I feel like 3.5p per share equivalent is a reasonable deal for both parties, it's just my guess, best not to get carried away with 8p etc, then you wont be disappointed, but pleasently surprised if it does get up there.
Based on very little apart from other takeovers I've been part of, they usually go for around half of estimated value, -10%, So I reckon a decent offer that might be accepted would be a 4-1 share offer which is about 3.5p per share assuming IOG share price holds up. Hopefully I'm underestimating though. Topped up with a little spare change, wish I had a bit more available, cant see it any less than where we are now, and if it were, I doubt it would be accepted, so pretty good risk reward IMO either way.
After the inital disappointment, but not surprise, at the conservative dividend, it actually makes good sense how they are handling the payouts, as long as Liberum's "metal windfall" dividend is correct then that's around 4.5p total when you add in the 1.6p. Which is what I was originally hoping for (~7% at 64p) which is very respectable and should underpin the SP and falls in line with Liberum's earlier estimate. They have doubled the regular dividend but if basket prices weakens then they wont have to cut the divi next year and have more room to keep raising it, a dividend cut makes far worse headlines and sentiment afterall. Plus it makes sense to withold the special dividend until after the winter just incase there is another Covid spike and lockdown which may require a cash cushion to get through.
They could have been clearer about the likely size of the special dividend and not hidden it away in the details, but apart from that very happy with the situation on reflection. But if they stiff us again on the special for no good reason then I'm out.