Member Info for CommandoKai

Natural Gas UK is the price that Serica is on, the other should be the gas price in the US and you can tell because it is priced in dollars not pence, its also much lower as the US has plenty of natural gas and really has only risen lately because some is being turned into liquid natural gas and shipped over here to take advantage of the much higher prices, I watch both because I'm invested in Serica for the UK gas price and Diversified Energy (DEC) which is affected by the US price. TFT gas price is bascially the price of gas for the rest of Europe, which does have an influence on UK prices as it affects the price of any imports but not directly tied to Serica.
If any of that makes sense, or perhaps Ive been getting it wrong.

Last at 8th based on Ben Graham's bargain rating, not on Simon Thompson's personal preference, outlooks or other valuation methods.

Well, Ive only been in this share about 4 months, bought just over £4 and watched as the COP fiasco drove it down further, its recovered faster than I expected but I feel this could be a good time to think again, we are at all time highs, the coal price has done well but any falls will be relected even larger here, by my very rough calcs I guesstimate a divi in the 46-50p region, so around 10% at these levels, which for an unloved sector in an unloved jurisdiction is probably the minimum to support a share price at this level, so yes it may hold around here, but why take the risk when the ex-divi price is liklely to cancel out the divi gain? This is my logic for selling today anyway, (£23,125 when it comes up in the trades).
You may have a very different view and see something I've missed, but I post so many buy recommendations on here, I thought I'd post a weak sell opinion for a change while the shares are doing well, maybe just consider top slicing a few if you have done even better? But at these levels and with ongoing transnet issues, the risk reward balance is not as appealing as it was around £4 and lower. Just some sobering thoughts amongst the hype, I could of course be totally wrong, I often am, and the holders may get rewarded for their bravery.

Still waiting for the divi in Interactive Investor too, but they always seem to be a few days behind on foreign currency dvis.
Their fixed price structure is well worth it though compared to HL unless youre a small investor.

I reckon more methane comes out of Joe Biden, they should plug and abandon him!

This is from the same type of cultists that plonk themselves down in the middle of the road to virtue signal about their end of the world cult.
These wells existed before DGOC took them over, they wont just magically vanish if they put DGOC out of business with this moaning and incase they hadnt noticed energy has to come from somewhere and the green renewable fantasy just doesnt come close to a reliable solution, coal is currently far cheaper than gas to produce energy, so unless they want more coal mining operations to start up they had better wind their green nieve necks in.
In the short term this should be just a tree shake, I'm pretty sure the vast majority invested in DGOC didnt do it because they wanted to virtue signal about helping fight the scam of man made climate change.
Dont panic, maybe top up or get in, the dividend wont be changing because of this hit piece, just dent the share price for a few weeks/months, so sit back and get paid to wait for its value to return, plus get rid of any brainwashed company that puts virtue sigalling over profits.
I'm also looking to buy some lovely thermal coal companies, and make even more money from these virtue signalling prats that have no idea about the reality of the worlds energy needs.

An interesting review of SLP's status and current valuation calculations, probably summing up quite well the general market sentiment towards SLP at the moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lDiAqH0OzE
Personally this is still my largest position and am relaxed about holding through short/medium term weakness, with the tight Rhodium market, any supply disruption would send the price off to the races again and regulatory increases should prevent any massive price collapse or make it very short lived at worst.

Yeah, I know, its not really derisking at all apart from at a company angle, my point is normally I would derisk at these levels but it has such a strong fundamental case that I just can't bring myself to derisk. The only reason I havent added THS is that I'm already over exposed to the sector and THS has a chrome angle that I'm not as bullish on, of the two SLP is a slightly better option IMO in the smaller cap space, but it's a close call, if SLP got bought out I'd move most of the proceeds in to THS and some other PGM plays.
AAL is probably a more stable bet as its has more diversification, but SBSW is more undervalued and more focused on the PGM returns that have yet to be fully priced in, and the SBSW management have done some amazing aquistions and are looking for more, I love the fact they have a major (I believe biggest) PGM recyling plant in the US as well which is throwing off incredible cash with no mining risks.
It all depends on if the PGM prices can hold these kind of levels, I cant see why not, there is very little easy production to be brought online and they are all forcast to be in deficit for several years at least, the prices could just as easily keep climbing, we will see.

IKR, SLP is now by far my largest position and I'd like to derisk some, but how do you derisk when everything else is riskier and cash is risking missing out on the much more likely upside?
Rhodium fundamentals, a metal which has no total substitute, and very rare production, being forced to be used in ever increasing amounts by environmental govermental laws around the world, the EV revolution further away than green cultists like to imagine, with power and infrastructure no where near the requirements for their green fantasy land.
So the best I can do to derisk, is not to add any more in SLP, but get even more exposed to PGM miners, hence I now also have about half as much in Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW on the NYSE), the largest PGM producer in the world.
Miners are supposed to be leveraged to the commodity they mine, if gold prices had moved like the PGM prices have, gold companies would have gone through the roof, PGM prices are soaring across the board in the last 3 months even harder, yet PGM's dont get as much news coverage and the companies have not reflected their huge forward earnings, yes a little is due to a South African discount for political uncertainty, but really if you want pure exposure to PGM's you have to be looking at a company operating in South Africa (or even less stable jurisdictions), eventually the wider market will have to play catch up as future results force them to take notice of how profitable and supported the PGM outlook is, far far safer than speculative gold IMO.
So yeah, I now have over a third of my portfolio exposed to PGM's and am tempted to add more, I guess I'm not very good at the derisking idea.

It's 30% withholding tax on the dividend, 15% if you have completed a W8-BEN form in or out of an ISA, but 0% if you've completed the form and have them in a SIPP, assuming your broker is doing everything right on their end.
This is great news they've moved in to a new area with fresh/better opportunities, no doubt they had already snapped up the best available assets in the Appalachian Basin, the share price has a long way to go to reflect how much DGOC has grown in the last few years, it's hardly moved in that time compared to the ever increasing prodution.

Thanks for that news, that explains the 5% rise today, I would say that 120p is a reasonable 1 year target, but personally I have a target more like £3 in 2-3 years.

I mean for physical ETF's, and also they dont pay a dividend while you hold either do they?
I dont think the market has caught on the leverage of profit rises for SLP, SBSW and a few others, sure they have risen steadily, but they are still not close to fair value, where as a physical ETF is just tracking the commodity price up AND down at current levels isnt it?

owned*

Obviously the ETF would have been the better move from back then, but now the price has already taken off surely an ETF is fully valuing its assests at this price level? Sure it can continue to follow it up, but I like the idea of a company that's value has yet to be reflected in its share price and is lagging where we are now, it still has to rise to reflect the upcoming profits, and has more downside protection if the price takes a tumble, but perhaps I'm missing something, never own or looked at ETF's in great detail.

If the form's done you'll save the full 30% if its in a SIPP due to a tax treaty on pension investments, but only 15% saved if its in ISA or trading account.
It's about the only reason that's tempted me to get a SIPP, but the costs outweighed the savings to start a SIPP just for a single holding for me, as well as the inflexibility of it, so I didn't buy my DGOC in one. But if you already have a SIPP it makes sense to buy these in there if you can.

I dont own any Tharisa although they also appear to have a bright outlook, but I found their latest presentation had very useful comparisons of all the PGM miner prill splits and valuations, they left SLP out of the share price upside as technically SLP arent miners (plus they likely have more upside than Tharisa), but they did have SLP on an EV/EBITDA ratio where SLP does come out slightly ahead.
I was also pleased to see however that Sibayne Stillwater was the only share that beats Tharisa in terms of potential share price upside at recent share prices, again SLP is excluded from the list, but independant analysts reckon Tharisa has 157% upsdie from the price a few weeks agoat those spot prices, but Sibayne has 191%!
I already have SBSW so I'm talking my own book, but even Tharisa's own presentation admits SBSW have significantly more share price upside at strong PGM prices, so if you're able to trade on the NYSE they might be one to consider if you're looking for some diversification, while still playing the PGM theme.
The SBSW listing is an ADR of 4, which just means youre getting 4 normal shares for every ADR share you buy on the NYSE.
I'll try not to plug Sibayne again, I'm also hoping to add to them in the new ISA season if they havent taken off yet so dont buy too many please! ;)
But the rising PGM tide should lift all the PGM miners boats, some will execute better than others so Tharisa could end up being the star but SLP is still my favourite and biggest position by far of any of them, just to get back on topic.

Dont forget to fill out a W-8BEN form if you havent previously, or you'll miss out on 15% saving of the US witholding tax.
Too many articles report the full dividend rate and dont take off the 30% witholding tax (reduced to 15% after doing the form), the full 30% if you hold in a SIPP I believe.

The rhodium price seems to have found support after a fast fall, turned up slightly today according to the Johnson Matthey chart http://www.platinum.matthey.com/prices/price-charts#
Recently everytime it's ended a fall it runs back up again for a decent period as buyers panic to get supplies.
I'm so bullish on Rhodium with it's relative scaricty while at the same time being required by ever growing environmental laws around the world to be forced to be bought by car makers as there is no real full substitute for it.
SLP was already my largest position and I'm not selling any time soon, but to gain even more exposure to the rhodium's perfect storm I've snapped up a big chunk of Sibayne Stillwater (SBSW on the NYSE) as well, as they also do PGM recycling in the US as well as mines in SA, they look cheap as chips too if the average Rhodium price just stays about 10,000 for the year, let alone these levels.
Be aware though that the last day for trading for its dividend is today if anyone was thinking of getting some.
I now have a third of my whole portfolio exposed to PGM prices, while there is a risk Rhodium could come off the boil, I cant see the fundamentals leading to a total collapse in price any time soon, but of course now watch me be proven wrong, still I've put my money where my mouth is.

Thanks for that, but while cobalt may still be necessary for non solid state batteries, I can find no solid state chemistry that includes cobalt, but I can for say graphite and lithium, although solid state batteries may still be 5-10 years out for full scale production, I cant really see the EV market taking off until solid state allows charging in like 15 mins compared to a couple of hours or more for non solid state.
Cobalt just doesnt seem to play any role in that future compared to graphite and lithium that may still be used in some solid state technologies. This is why any graphs that show future EV demand past say 2030 could be irrelevant for cobalt as solid state should be the standard by then. Perhaps this will still pay off handsomely before then, I just would have liked more future proofing in case solid state batteries arrive sooner than expected.
The very ESG lobby that APF is trying to please is the same one that will push for battery chemistry to move away from cobalt as fast as possible to stop it being mined in the Congo.
I hope this is our last deal in cobalt at least.

While I welcome the quality of the cobalt stream acquired, I would have preferred their largest aquistion to have been in a different battery element to cobalt as it is being gradually phased out of battery chemistry, so I'm not sure this will do much more than pay for itself in the long run. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I would have much prefered this capital to have gone towards lithium, nickel, graphite or a combination of those as they seem to have much brighter long term prospects even with some solid state technology.
I assume APF has considered this, yet I can find no real discussion about it in the interviews to address my concern, I just hope they haven't rushed in to this just because of the prestige of it being the Voisey Bay assest and their need to pander to ESG concerns, as that wont get us very far in the longer term.