The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I agree bar the best suited comment. He's hugely aligned with shareholders; that I totally appreciate.
Hard to disagree with your naivety comments; there has been some stupid comments made and the placing was nothing short of ramp. I still think there's a huge amount of unknowns hence the price is where it is. The port for example still hasn't been addressed as to whether this is a huge issue or cost yet. Could be more bureauacy there waiting... No news on kit of the ground; MF has made a huge amount of news of how exciting this all is but hasn't actually told us a lot.
Is this a big win for the future, say in 5 years; logic says yes however if we are diluted to silly numbers then anyone caught up in the hubris last year of 15p+ entry points, it's a hard pill to swallow. Really need MF to start answering some questions rather than how excited he is... Progress reports towards IML/DFS is needed especially when targets he set are being missed.
Technically Frayne should update the market... If you put in an RNS that you anticipate something for a date, i.e. Mid-April; when you don't meet it you should update the market to correct. You don't get away with caveats such as "anticipate" as a get out clause. He's done this too many times now for it to be accidental (or if it is, it's beyond careless).
If we get into May (which I assume we will) without it and any indication on news; I'm highly doubtful as to where we are in the process of any production this year or even building. We need an update on what else is going on; machinery being sourced; offtake discussions etc. They must have circa £600k in the bank (maybe less) by my calcs and we can't keep spinning doing nothing on the basis offtake is coming soon. It's a cold hard fact that any more delays = more cashburn and potentially placings if we can't get the offtake money in before the money runs out. The offtake signing is dependent on the IML which depends on everything else so a few more months and we are in trouble (again).
Can't disagree with that; CMET being very poor at managing 3rd parties. They are paying for it and allowing too much leeway. Yes the drilling analysis was poor imo; and IHC are fobbing him off. If I was that late delivering a report I'd be fired!
"The report will include estimated Project economics, incorporating the significant global price of the Company's suite of heavy minerals. The Study is being prepared to a Scoping Study level but is expected to provide the necessary information to make a Final Investment Decision and move promptly into the first stage of development and production. The Company anticipates the release of the final report by mid-April 2022."
If I'm honest, I wish CMET wouldn't put any sort of timeframes on delivery of info as they seem to really struggle to meet them. Once is ok, twice is poor, multiple times is just careless managing of expectations. There must be good news loaded in this report given the JORC, given the ATH in resource prices and potential offtake. I can however understand why the SP has zero interest atm given the timeframes stated must all be out by a serious factor. Whilst we are currently funded until offtake arrives; if this keeps getting delayed then it's an inevitable placing whilst we burn cash.
The excitement from MF on podcasts etc is so tangible but I cannot understand why this isn't translating across and my only guess is the poor management of expectations. Hopefully this is resolved this week and we are still on track for April however it's getting a little tiresome. Least the illiquidity means the SP barely moves any further down!
I agree with your logic however I slightly disagree with "its not the end of the world in the long run?" as I think the constant overpromising and under-delivering has led us to having little growth in the SP despite good news. The assumption (including my own) is that at some point there becomes a too good to ignore moment and the SP picks up but this is AIM, it doesn't have to be rational. Time costs money on AIM and placings follow delays. Granted the placings haven't been to bad so far but I totally understand why the market is hesitant. I'm hopeful that the DFS is that too big to ignore moment and it's in the next couple of weeks as you say. MF actually said in a podcast that £30mil revenue a year was an expected result, the SP did nothing which shows where we are with his statements. This is all doable to overcome but it's frustrating and will always be a worry until it starts to move.
I don't think what we've had so far comes close to what was actually promised: -
"The report will include estimated Project economics, incorporating the significant global price of the Company's suite of heavy minerals. The Study is being prepared to a Scoping Study level but is expected to provide the necessary information to make a Final Investment Decision and move promptly into the first stage of development and production. The Company anticipates the release of the final report by mid-April 2022."
Surely this is due by end of the month!
Yes; this exactly, are we light years away or weeks away? The recent podcasts and RNS suggested it was more than just a drilling update due in April. We have no idea if the DFS or IML is months away or even this year if there's huge delays with the government issues/local conditions.
I think/hope that we are good to go fairly shortly but there's mass uncertainty; MF hasn't helped fill that void however it doesn't take away from how good the opportunity is. EIA is done, resource is definitely there; IML was supposed to be a tickbox post EIA. The DFS is the only thing they can control so pressure should be on to get this out; that really should calm a lot of worries and spur some value.
Hard to not be disappointed this week; resource update and we're under 8p again.
Can only assume the DFS followed by IML is the only thing that will spark value here. I have to admit my faith is slightly shaken as I never think I'm more clever than the market so if the market can't see the huge value here then what's going wrong?
Hopefully the DFS/IML sparks interest and PR post this. Have to wait and see, hope it's not waiting too long, I honestly think that's the reason why it's not shifting; the wait is unknown and despite MF saying it's soon, his credibility of statements like that is probably gone. Hopefully this means a rapid increase when the time comes.
Not the explosion upwards I think most people were hoping for but I'm fairly relaxed about this now. Reality is that there are some uncertainties with the government and delays. That will mean in the markets eyes that there is room for delay/running out of money/placement.
I categorically don't think that is the case however I can understand the markets hesitancy. The fact there is huge resource in the top few meters means it can be easily retrieved once we are given the green light. The project economics must come in the next week or two, the missing info was the resource investigation, no reason for it not to be. I think that will cause interest to flood back. Very little has changed since 12 months ago bar some minor dilution when this was 16p to 20p. I'm hoping to be back up there in the next few weeks and will be disappointed if we're not.
Come on... When is this finally going to pop!
Waking up every day checking for an RNS; it's so overdue it's getting painful!
4 days next week; will the project economics by delivered given it said mid April in the last RNS?
Could be interesting; the good news is any rises we seem to get from below 7 seem to stick atm.
Weird how that volume completely died off!
The last RNS said that the project economics report would be done by mid-April... Given Easter, not many trading days left until then. Not that they've ever missed a deadline they've set before but you would like to think that this should be on time given it's been delayed so many times.
In-house broker sees significant upside...
Not a complete shock that one if i'm honest.
Agreed, beginning to look like a jam tomorrow company. Unless some huge news in next week, this is a distraction lets upgrade the total resource rns attempt. The longer it takes doesn't stop it being a good investment but it changes who it is a good investment for. Huge delays, placings due to cash burn will eventually ruin any early entrants (i.e. us lot). The lack of project economics, drilling results etc makes me think that getting the resource out of the ground to market is delayed by siginificant amounts, i.e. def not this year and likely well into next (if not later). This means cash burn so this is all to pump the value by finding extra resource. It's worthless until we get it out and that may be many cash burns away.
I hope this isn't the case but every RNS and Frayne dismissal is beginning to sound worse and worse. He is massively invested though so hopefully he is feeling the pain as well (lessened by his salary of course...)
Hugely agree LW and likewise hopeful PFG.
My theory is that it can't get any worse right!? I think Frayne is a complete fool for the Fed podcast bordering on actually fraudulent given that it was a clear pump (that didn't even work) before a placing. The delays have been endless but at least they've finally admitted to it and given a deadline for detail. April is my line in the sand, if that fails to happen then the whole timeframe is wrong.
The money owed to the original parties has me slightly worried but again maybe the SP reflects that. That's the only thing holding me in here; it's got to be as bad as it gets and good news will come and inflate the SP rapidly. What's a few more weeks after 14 months of holding. If he is willing to openly lie in a podcast then an RNS (if nothing happens) then this is no longer an investable company so we will know one way or another shortly.
Wow, thats correct. If that's correct then cash will be wiped out again.
No wonder Frayne has delayed this... I need to make a decision and research this a bit more but this is really not good if this is correct.
That would nearly wipe out the cash balance...
Can you confirm that anywhere as I've never seen this in any RNS and/or details provided by the company.
They have loads of cash, why a 28% discounted placing?
Is this a new alias?!
Has anything Frayne said in that podcast or the presentation been delivered in Q1? Either we are about to go into the biggest news rich week ever or Frayne is just flat out lying to investors now?
I cannot fathom how we haven't been updated when he knows what he said and then timelines have materially slipped (within a month to nearly 2 months out)... My hope is that the news is about to be huge and transformational but it's a hard to stomach hold atm. Luckily the volume has completely disappeared in Q1 and must only be long term holders left invested; makes holding easier without it falling further.
Possibly bad news but also possibly not. All the money being raised is external to Sri Lanka. Throw in a crisis for foreign exchange money and it may work in our favour to grease the wheels. The government will be falling over itself to attract FDI as it solves many issues; foreign currency and stimulates economic demand. This may expediate any mining licences etc. That said; if they haven't got the paper to print it on then it may not be so good.
In the balance; I'd think an economic crisis actually might benefit us in terms of how pressing getting things done might be. Also it's the Guardian which is as much of a rag as the Daily Mail so I'm taking it with a pinch of salt.