Member Info for colorblind86

Great comments; let's hope this podcast is of note.

Any ETA on when it's being recorded?

I have emailed.

I wouldn't be that certain; Burton is a paid for fluffer. The questions will be heavily vetted and sent in advance. Hopefully the interview won't just be more "oh the offtakers are so excited", "can't wait to get going", "ATH resource prices yadda yadda..."

Acknowledging that the delays have left a lot of holders over 60% down and yet to stimulate any sort of bounce back would be a start imo but hey....

Great work!

Unfortunately David Burton blocked me a while back when he disagreed with me over the fact he had been used and didn't do anything to deny it. If someone could ask about the DFS payments for me; it would be great!

Yes exactly, not sure what this is then if it not a DFS (which it can't be if as you say no payments triggered). Not sure how we can get to production without making payments? It's a topic that Frayne hasn't answered (like the port which I also notice has a sizeable $2.7m which seems a lot for a little dredging as ppl suggested).

AS for media; hopefully it is coming but last time he had it lined up for the day of release; seems bit quieter this time which makes me hope there's more news to come therefore quiet on the old promo front until it comes out!

Quite possibly true!

I shared it on the telegram group; worth discussing here if not seen.

https://ir.q4europe.com/Tools/newsArticleHTML.aspx?solutionID=2182&customerKey=capitalmetals&storyID=14915716&language=en

Took me a lot of digging but found the amounts that are owed on completion of feasibility study. It's in section 4; Outstanding Consideration and CML Obligation to Allot Shares.

To me it reads $4.6m worth to be paid (or in shares) on completion of feasibility study. Surely that's today/now? Some of it due on the report; some on issue of IML. CMET does not have that money which makes me think either we have a placing coming now or Frayne is lining up the IML/Offtake/report to all land within days of each other so that we get financing to pay off the debts.

Sizeable chunk of money Frayne neglected to mention needs paying in my eyes now.

Yeah makes sense. Whilst all the points mean the IML is the key here; it's a little baffling when we see cash amounts written down that are massive and the SP does nothing today. 8 trades so far!?

Frayne really hasn't captured the market's attention unfortunately.. Looks like we will be waiting a little longer!

Yeah it's the mining license for me that will release value. Whilst this report is great and shows the potential; all the market sees is that there's $37mil needed to kick it all off. Whether this includes the original payback to investors is also interesting but until a guarantee of timeframes; I doubt we will attract much interest. If the IML lands, then at least revenue will be guaranteed, with the risk off in markets, Sri Lankan uncertainty we are not going to see anything until then. I sincerely hope Frayne updates us with some sort of indication of where that is in the geo-political current scenario.

So the logic is that we have either of the following in the very immediate future: -

1. Placing to pay the liability off
2. Offtake announcement to start the funding
3. IML (in order to get 2 done at the same time)

I can't work out why this report was so delayed, it's great news but doesn't have anything particularly that would require a huge delay, it's not even that long (unless the RNS is just an extract). I hope there's more to come.

It's all good news but might not get any reaction. Frayne's credibility on timelines is near zero unfortunately so until the IML I'm not sure we will see any growth. It's staggering though as the resource and estimates are amazing as we all knew they would be. I'm hoping there's more to come rapidly as this DFS starts a process of reimbursing the original creditors so hopefully this is all lined up and not just thrown out there. The report isn't massive so not sure what held it up so my gut instinct tells me there's more news lined up and hopefully the start of a decent period. The political uncertainty does make a difference however it should be a rubber stamp; it's not an EIA with contested areas, should be a bureaucrat not a politician getting involved. Sri Lanka does like it's elected bureauacy though so maybe not...

Yeah I'm not too worried about it but I am baffled as to how we've had no comment about it nor why something that was due mid-april hasn't been delivered yet.

Is production this year a thing? I doubt it; if that's not the case then there will be another placing. I think this is why the SP is where it is; as soon as that is confirmed/denied properly; we will see a movement.

Exactly.

The unrest isn't new nor is the political situation. MF was sure news was "imminent" despite all of this a few weeks ago and now it's all changed has it?

It's pretty simple; either Frayne is spinning for time and lying to us or something has changed and it was imminent (might still be) but something has gone awry.

I'd hope it's the latter and he is just **** poor at comms not being misled by him (which I doubt but the placing did leave a sour taste in the mouth last time).

Yes longer term I get your point LW. I would like to think that the governmental change is irrelevant given how far down the line we allegedly are according to Frayne. The EIA is the huge piece of work that has more government interest and the mining licence is supposed to be a rubber stamp. Giving Frayne said it was imminent and information due Mid-April; I'd like to think that any political unrest is irrelevant but given we have zero insight right now; it seems incredible that Frayne doesn't feel the need to at least reassure shareholders!

Mid May shortly; let's hope this wakes up, nice to see a genuine tick up for once!

Sri Lanka in shut down mode; new prime minster very likely. Weird this is having zero effect on CMET according to the RNS/Frayne but it could be true.

In theory news should be imminent but who knows anymore, MF has obviously given up the PR that started back in April but has no reason to tell any PIs why something has changed. I would have thought at a minimum it would be a "everything is ok and on track" RNS whilst the country falls apart and there's full scale rioting on the streets of the capital!

Read it again, slower. I asked a question not making a statement. The poor SP is down to Frayne and his lack of delivery. When he constantly says something is due, imminent or about to happen then literally none of that happens (or instead a placing is delivered) then it's bordering on smelling a bit dodgy.

I don't mind the delays due to covid/bureauacy but these are now statements that are just simply false and then left uncorrected. The sentiment has been destroyed by Frayne and might be difficult to recover. Simply it needs massive news that is impossible to ignore; that's revenue generation and is needed asap (or concrete evidence of it being produced in a time period we can discount back from).

This is the bizzare thing; logic to me says that there's loads going on and everything being lined up but a few weeks ago, Frayne got all excited and started PR then absolute radio silence. It's a killer on AIM, I'm worried that any good news will be met with zero interest by the market as the credibility is gone.

Are we bordering on fraudulent? I have to wonder as why would he continue to say dates and be so far out when it comes to meeting them (or not at all in some cases).

He speaks a good game but when it actually comes down to it, very little has been actually confirmed as happening. The drill results weren't actually full results. The DFS delivery skims over the fact that they have to make a substantial payment (trying to dig out how much it is) which they don't have the cash for. Frayne skims over that aspect of delivery, this is likely one of the reasons for the delay. Cash burn will be an issue fairly shortly as well which will mean another placing in a few months.

I think we should all be emailing Frayne directly as well as the Nomad to push for clarification; cannot keep releasing RNS's that say one thing then it's not met with no explanation.

It's an absolute farce tbh; still can't work out why Frayne keeps throwing out dates then missing them by months.

We have zero visibility on the ground atm; no idea if anything is anything been done on the ground whilst we wait on paperwork. Cash burn is a major issue and still no mention of what happens with the cash payment required on the announcement of the DFS. Are shareholders expected to cough up again via dilution to pay for this?

I guess so but I thought the biggest shareholders are in at much higher levels tbf; maybe they are being told things we aren't. Either way, frustrating as hell. Have to wait and see; slipping into May when promising things are imminent and due mid-April is pathetic.

As you say, valuation compared to peers is insane but hopefully that will catch up quickly, its difficult to see a position completely down and illiquid.

Yes the report says that but I don't think that's the case...

Given facts so far; do we even know if dredging equipment is available or what licenses/permits do we need, there's potential it needs another mini EIA as I read up on the news. It's tiny things but again zero clarity or detail which is something MF has a habit of glossing over as he gets so excited about offtake. Even a few photos on twitter wouldn't go amiss to show people at work or similar.

There just isn't a lot of clarity on stuff at the moment and it's made consistently worse by MF not delivering as by his own set deadlines. Beginning to get hugely frustrated given the potential of this project (and how deep underwater I am).

Sure; but no indication of timeframes, no indication of easy to dredge in a few weeks but have to wait 6 months to get approvals from a heavily bureaucratic government/local council.

The PR is woeful, even a few photos on twitter would be something; just so many unknowns here atm. Is this a place to sell-out; absolutely not, think this really is the bottom (bar any delays/placings) however Frayne is becoming less credible rapidly. Given his phone conversations he has had with other holders; he is very bullish and chipper so either this is fraudulent or he is just guilty of to much enthusiasm. I still think it's the latter however with the dodgy placing and his stupid target setting then failing, it's getting hard to support.

Hopefully now we've all said this, big RNS by end of week.