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Yeah I hope it's that sort of idea; more PR planned when bigger news drops. I'd love to know what people think whether the IML is days away or whether we are months to go? It seems impossible to tell, the big assumption is that we get a re-rate on IML but what if we don't!? Do we then have to wait for money to literally be arriving in the door selling the resource? Seems unlikely but this SP has literally been one way since last year, needs a real turnaround in mood/news!
Well DB replied to me last week that they "hoped" it was very soon. Just had another email and there's no date in the diary yet for an interview. Looks like the PR last week has dried up again. Hopefully this is due to more news being dropped but it might not be the case.
Not ideal; wanted answers sooner rather than later!
Nice, yes I really hope so.
6p to sell.. F@@@@@@@@@ hell
I hope someone has insider news!
Big buyer or big seller? Quite hard to tell, looks like sells to me but values suggest buys.
I hope so though I can't understand the level of silence/secrecy here. Are we going to get to June without the IML? We were supposed to be in production in H2....
Really hope the IML unlocks some much needed value here! And soon!
Exactly; and the GSMB as far as I can tell from online presence is still operating and not leaderless.
All I would like to know is how far away it might be and what is holding up the IML. I'd like some insight into what else is happening (if anything). The word imminent has been used and then nothing! It's a weird combo of being told that Covid is delaying everything but at the same time Frayne saying in podcasts that everything is progressing on the ground and CV19 isn't a huge issue nor is the political situation. It's very odd.
Wait.. wasn't the placing supposed to be ages ago; when you first claimed it on the 25th April.
Also see you recommended Crypto; also a great call.
Any other great shouts? Eating yellow snow?
Yeah the assumption is that the IML will finally release some value; it's makes revenue at some point a dead cert. That's the hope anyway. Weirdly I thought the same as the EIA as the IML should be a rubber stamp. I'm still unsure why a new government changes anything because Frayne said it wasn't causing issues but this is all positive news. As LW points out, this all should be very clear from the CEO to the shareholders, it's unfair for such turmoil in our local market and the CEO not to comment on what is a binary risk atm. Either this projects goes ahead and we get rewarded or it's denied and it's all over. That's not fair to shareholders to not update on this.
TBF the SP has done well to survive so far this week given the Sri Lankan mess atm. If they read this BB then they know that they need to clarify where we are in the process; either we go to sleep and wait another 6 months for the IML and hope the SP doesn't crater. Or are we days away (or were we) and the crisis has held it up, or is everything ok and any day we get that RNS. All 3 have huge time implications and as such potential risk for further placements if the offtake can't happen until the IML as cash is very low.
It's so hard to tell whether to be very excited after the long wait or nervous about a even longer wait!
Yeah agreed, but it's painful.
You can't have the sort of headlines coming out of Sri Lanka like they are atm and our CEO shrugging his shoulders saying it's all ok. I sincerely hope this is the case but if we are waiting on a signature and need local workers/companies to start things for production; if there's no power, hyper inflation and no government to sign anything then this is a problem.
I'm more hopeful that a civil service (GMSB) is still functioning and we need a or b to be resolved to get the mining licence. Frayne has given zero insight into the process which is very frustrating for what is supposed to be a rubber stamp post EIA!
One can only hope. This SP needs some lifting, I'm all for the long term belief etc etc but i've been in 18 months and had enough tbh. It's time to see some return and demand that we see some reasons if not so. There's been a definite uptick in PR with zero reaction but hoping this is the beginning of the reversal!
Spoke to DB, no date has been agreed with CMET to produce the podcast. Hopefully very soon is the answer (hoping that means this weekend).. I have stressed that we are all concerned about lack of info around the IML and the current Sri Lanka situation. Hopefully these questions get asked/answered!
Yes I am still completely in the dark as to whether this is a 6 month delay or whether this is a few weeks. For all the buzz Frayne has given about the offtake; we have no idea of progress on the ground. When you start getting down to 6.75 to sell; alarm bells are ringing. I've broken most of my rules in holding this all the way down to here so far but there's a limit. This is a substantial loss and my worries that it plummets further if it finally comes out that GMSB is nowhere and we are not likely to see production until H2 2023!!
Frayne has to answer some basic questions instead of being so excited about the offtake/prices of the resource.
Is that 100k sale or not? Not good seeing it down at 6.75.
Either Sri Lanka is on fire and this years delayed or it isn't. Frayne really should be clarifying given so far he has been very dismissive of issues so far (hopefully a good thing!)
Yeah 100%.
Mad to think we actually pay someone for PR/Marketing. Why on earth a photo or a tweet of Frayne speaking to officials hasn't been published. The Sri Lankans photograph all this sort of stuff. I follow the habour authority and a few other organizations on FB and they do loads of PR both in native and english language.
Assume the TMS podcast is this weekend? Just zero interest in the share atm, it needs a real push around the IML (assuming it's not months away!)
Can't share it but google it; WH Ireland released a note about it; think they see fair value currently at 31p then much higher 70p+ on licence/production.
Of course this in the in-house broker so always uber bullish but 30mil a year EBITDA is many multiples of the current MCAP so makes sense.
Yes seems that way. Definitely a pick up in activity; jury is out on whether this is just pure hope or whether this is the main event soon. Despite all the bad news about the condition in Sri Lanka, Frayne seems quite upbeat. The new PM wants investment and desperately needs FOREX. This would by assumption grease the wheels and stop any bureauacy holding us up. The moment production becomes a possibility, any discount model will put us at many multiples of the current market cap. 30mil EBITDA (thanks PFG) is a 2 bagger of current market cap just in year 1. This valuation is absurd. I'd be dying to enter at this level if it was my first buy in point but unfortunately it is not :(
Yes agreed PFG re: land access issues. IT was asked whether CMET needed to speak to lots of individual farmers/owners and he said no, government was most of the owners and the EIA had covered a lot of it. Don't see an issue here.
A lot of PR over the weekend albeit small bits. Feels like a significant ramp up but then that's only because we've been starved of anything for ages. I hope the IML etc is very very close and this isn't just padding for time. When you've got a CEO saying 30mil a year revenue to start, costs being covered by offtakers and still no interest from the market; it's very disappointing. His credibility is still tainted by timeline sloppiness; when this becomes to good an opportunity to ignore as I hope it will post IML; the SP should begin to move quite rapidly.
Very interesting, especially about the financing part.
Timeframes are still a little up in the air; I really want detail on where the IML process is? I.e. waiting on a signature; proposal submitted or yet to be tabled...
Once the IML/Offtake is taken care of, this should re-rate but again it's the timeframe that is hurting the SP imo. I also think that despite how good that interview was; the market isn't interested in what Frayne has to say which is a pain but understandable. Let's hope it's switches around soon.
I would hope by the weekend...
Press is beginning to notice the quite staggering figures being thrown out in the economics report. The main queries are funding and payments due (and whether the IML will get granted anytime soon).
If those are answered pretty shortly then we may finally get some movement...