Member Info for cmcc4395

You’re a headcase mate. A total absolute headcase. Seeing conspiracies everywhere!! I’m not the first one to allege this am I either? I’m 50% odd down still (see previous posts, which you seem to enjoy stalking - do you have a job??), so why the eff I would “FUD”. Sod off.

Don't be crazy Sefton. I think Nigel is wrong, or else i misunderstood him, hence question to clarify. Sort of the purpose of these boards i.e. discussion?

Nigel - I don't understand your comment re the "odd decision" - I thought that they were not going to rigless test MOU-1 at this stage, but rather wait to rigless test all three wells simultaneously post next drill? On the basis that it would be more cost-effective, restrictions on travel etc and also that they had seen enough from the initial results to push on with further drills (and also, might be wrong here but its my suspicion, because there is obviously a reasonable chance of a non-commercial result and that would render funding the next drills harder).

Isn’t market cap now £3bn?

I think he means that the IIs held price sensitive info re the new acquisition obtained during the bookbuild for the cap raise, and so were prohibited from trading during that period. So they couldn't sell any excess shares into (and thus soften) the sharp SP spike.

I guess the worry is that they are incentivised to grow BOEPD even if such growth comes at a dilutive price to shareholders (and they are not yet major shareholders themselves). Perhaps a BOEPD per share metric would be more useful

They’re not trying to maximise earnings (rather than revenue and growing the business) right now though, so it’s a bit of a meaningless metric isn’t it?

Be interested to hear your thoughts if you do do a deeper dive. I work for an insurance company in M&A transaction insurance, and we have an increasingly positive view of Colombia as a stable business / deal-making environment, so I don’t think it’s anywhere near as dodgy as some other LATAM countries. Anyway sorry for going off-topic, hope everyone having a good Sunday

How about his remaining junior oiler “GASX”, Tony? Do you have any thoughts on that (out of interest)?

I think GGG was just making the point that Doc (the reason many of us got into or at least heard about this stock) seems now to share his view, though initially that wasn’t Doc’s reaction to the recent acquisiton and raise so I’m a bit confused by that. Also deflated frankly!
Incidentally really appreciate both your inputs on this board for what it’s worth

I might well have misheard/misunderstood this, but has PG changed the strategy for obtaining drill funding from a Moroccan downstream industrial gas user to a JV/farm-in with another O&G company?
Real shame we couldn't hear from Lonny, was really looking forward to that. Hopefully we get to hear from him on another forum soon. His presence is a massive vote of confidence for me, especially considering Pilbeam's exit (does sound a bit like he didn't have much faith in the MOU-1 results, or at least the early results).
I think that if (obviously it is an if and we would all be crazy not to be a little bit worried about further placings) PG can obtain drill funding this will fly, not least because it will demonstrate that someone else (presumably knowledgeable) really buys the story based on MOU-1 and seismic etc. Not sure what will be the catalyst before that though.

In addition to the initial rns (he alluded to reasons for this but didn’t really elaborate, maybe he will next week) and the sub-optimal messaging from Pillbeam’s sales, the really annoying thing for me was the 5p placing. PG tells us that we have a discovery, but I think diluting himself (and us) by placing at 5p undermines the market’s confidence in this - after all he must think that was way too cheap given that in his view the market has misinterpreted MOU-1 results?! I think that’s why nothing has moved the SP since. Hope to God he has something new and positive to say next week.

I think WHI sort of tangentially acknowledge that the Clearwater flow rates were a bit lower than hoped for when they state that mgt need to work out where are the best bits of their acreage to expend capital on developing first..

Very nice. Doesn’t even really mention the prospect for material capital appreciation as well as the dividend yield either.

I was relieved there wasn't a Friday morning RNS today which might possibly have been slipped in had the flow results not been as expected (noting the slightly unusual previous messaging on these wells). Fingers crossed for some good results on Monday morning!

Nice, presumably the updated investor pres will be being prepared in time for this, so shouldn’t be too long to wait now.

That's interesting Tony, thanks. I suppose the current SP fits in with those metrics (4-7%) with respect to predicted combined '21 dividend, so maybe we will need to wait until the market gets more confidence in the '22 dividend to rerate accordingly. And yes I am following Eric, aside from your point re useful comparisons/valuation metrics etc I am also hoping that he will mention ITE (I haven't seen him do so yet), though I think the companies he is focusing on have higher market caps.

Thanks for this Tony. Do you have an opinion on what sort of dividend yield (assuming that the market considers it sustainable) you would expect us to end up at? i.e. Is your sense that the SP would automatically adjust if the (once again, assuming proven and sustainable) dividend yield rises above say 5%? Or 7%?

Does feel like we're stuck in a self-fulfilling prophesy: instos loaded up on 11p shares selling into good news / retail assuming they will do so and so logically pursuing the same strategy (as I did with about 15% of my shares yesterday, buying back 40p cheaper this morning). Appreciate I'm part of the problem but it is frustrating. Feel like it is going to take either Serenity (noting that after funding commitment they still need to turn an in principle term sheet into agreed docs, so i don't think it's all that imminent) or a declared and evidently sustainable dividend yield which renders the SP glaringly obviously too low to really push this past this little holding pattern we are in around the placing price.

I've also found the messaging odd. Sort of implied that everything hadn't gone completely smoothly with the reference to valuable lessons being learned for future drills. Would be great if it is in fact an upside surprise coming, would be a real surprise if the numbers were materially lower than expected from everything we've been hearing about Clearwater.