Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Be interested to hear your thoughts if you do do a deeper dive. I work for an insurance company in M&A transaction insurance, and we have an increasingly positive view of Colombia as a stable business / deal-making environment, so I don’t think it’s anywhere near as dodgy as some other LATAM countries. Anyway sorry for going off-topic, hope everyone having a good Sunday
I think GGG was just making the point that Doc (the reason many of us got into or at least heard about this stock) seems now to share his view, though initially that wasn’t Doc’s reaction to the recent acquisiton and raise so I’m a bit confused by that. Also deflated frankly!
Incidentally really appreciate both your inputs on this board for what it’s worth
I might well have misheard/misunderstood this, but has PG changed the strategy for obtaining drill funding from a Moroccan downstream industrial gas user to a JV/farm-in with another O&G company?
Real shame we couldn't hear from Lonny, was really looking forward to that. Hopefully we get to hear from him on another forum soon. His presence is a massive vote of confidence for me, especially considering Pilbeam's exit (does sound a bit like he didn't have much faith in the MOU-1 results, or at least the early results).
I think that if (obviously it is an if and we would all be crazy not to be a little bit worried about further placings) PG can obtain drill funding this will fly, not least because it will demonstrate that someone else (presumably knowledgeable) really buys the story based on MOU-1 and seismic etc. Not sure what will be the catalyst before that though.
In addition to the initial rns (he alluded to reasons for this but didn’t really elaborate, maybe he will next week) and the sub-optimal messaging from Pillbeam’s sales, the really annoying thing for me was the 5p placing. PG tells us that we have a discovery, but I think diluting himself (and us) by placing at 5p undermines the market’s confidence in this - after all he must think that was way too cheap given that in his view the market has misinterpreted MOU-1 results?! I think that’s why nothing has moved the SP since. Hope to God he has something new and positive to say next week.
I think WHI sort of tangentially acknowledge that the Clearwater flow rates were a bit lower than hoped for when they state that mgt need to work out where are the best bits of their acreage to expend capital on developing first..
I was relieved there wasn't a Friday morning RNS today which might possibly have been slipped in had the flow results not been as expected (noting the slightly unusual previous messaging on these wells). Fingers crossed for some good results on Monday morning!
That's interesting Tony, thanks. I suppose the current SP fits in with those metrics (4-7%) with respect to predicted combined '21 dividend, so maybe we will need to wait until the market gets more confidence in the '22 dividend to rerate accordingly. And yes I am following Eric, aside from your point re useful comparisons/valuation metrics etc I am also hoping that he will mention ITE (I haven't seen him do so yet), though I think the companies he is focusing on have higher market caps.
Thanks for this Tony. Do you have an opinion on what sort of dividend yield (assuming that the market considers it sustainable) you would expect us to end up at? i.e. Is your sense that the SP would automatically adjust if the (once again, assuming proven and sustainable) dividend yield rises above say 5%? Or 7%?
Does feel like we're stuck in a self-fulfilling prophesy: instos loaded up on 11p shares selling into good news / retail assuming they will do so and so logically pursuing the same strategy (as I did with about 15% of my shares yesterday, buying back 40p cheaper this morning). Appreciate I'm part of the problem but it is frustrating. Feel like it is going to take either Serenity (noting that after funding commitment they still need to turn an in principle term sheet into agreed docs, so i don't think it's all that imminent) or a declared and evidently sustainable dividend yield which renders the SP glaringly obviously too low to really push this past this little holding pattern we are in around the placing price.
I've also found the messaging odd. Sort of implied that everything hadn't gone completely smoothly with the reference to valuable lessons being learned for future drills. Would be great if it is in fact an upside surprise coming, would be a real surprise if the numbers were materially lower than expected from everything we've been hearing about Clearwater.
None of us know, and I for one certainly hope it’s one of the more benevolent explanations. But let’s be honest there are definitely less benevolent reasons for director sells after a drill and you’d have to be stupid not be considering those. Plus it’s hardly unreasonable or not pertinent to speculate about these on a bulletin board about the company and its share price.
He makes some reasonable arguements which may or may not be correct but certainly can and should be argued on the evidence, rather than attacking him for making them. We don’t know the reason for Ron’s sales and in the absence of an explanation they are clearly and reasonably a worry. The SP has fallen drastically since the first RNS (I know, I didn’t get in at 2c or 5c like everyone else seems to boast of and am totally underwater) and the fact is that the market clearly still doesn’t consider the drill a success and PG chose to dilute himself by raising prior to convincing the market otherwise. I really want to hope for the best interpretation of it all but I wish PG would do an interview and lay things out more clearly, if there is indeed a positive case to sell.