Member Info for cmcc4395

They’re paying a high cost for taking so long to invest in their US warehouse

Nice, thanks Tony. Interesting that he said that “nearly all management teams have committed to returning at least 50 per cent of 2022 free cashflow back to shareholders”. That’s a fair bit higher than we have committed to (20-30%, right?). Maybe one reason that we are trading on the lower end of (low) multiples? Perhaps energy investors want returns now rather than future growth?

Usage of the term throughout makes zero sense unless it refers to ONHYM. Bit perturbing that they don't have ONHYM approval already.

I read "subject to partner approval" as referring to ONHYM i.e. our current partner in the licence.

I wonder what is going on, feels like there must be a reason for the delay in the capital programme, which was meant to cover the rest of 2021 as well as 2022! I really hope there is something big brewing to explain the delay, either the farm-out or a new (predominantly debt-funded) acquisition or a farm-in and/or hefty debt programme to fuel a really aggressive drilling campaign. Something!

Shell just pulled out of Cambo “to leave future of North Sea oil in doubt” (as The Times put it). :-(

Sefton how about you address any of the points actually made in Carj's post, which seemed pretty wide-eyed, technically adept (though I don't really have the knowledge base to assess this) and balanced to me, rather than accusing him of being part of a conspiracy. Did you notice that his post got a lot of likes? Stop trying to bully people away from having informed debate.

Graham's comment re Serenity sounded positive, a matter of 'if' not 'when'.

Good from Graham. He is impressive

This is a big worry for me too and engenders the sort of urgency I have for us to develop assets fast and to get the SP moving stat. I feel like there is a relatively small window to really make hay, in the fossil fuel space, particularly in western countries, but I fear that it will be gone (demand wise, regulation wise, access to finance wise, and investor demand wise) quicker than we all think. North Sea oil, for instance, looks like it might well be a stranded asset very soon. Even in Canada there are risks, an Aussie thermal coal company I had a (very) small holding in had its asset pulled out from under it by regulatory change. First they came for my coal, and I did not speak out ... etc etc.

Well my sense is that they should maybe have launched the upcoming drilling campaign sooner, used at least some (even small) amount of debt for the Cenovus acquisition (but ok let's not get into that!), and Majid should have bought some shares to send the message that he is more clearly aligned with shareholders (I do get a sense of some misalignment or perception of misalignment e.g. triggering the award of share options for increasing BOPD even if dilutive to existing shareholders). Maybe also a small share buyback to signal to the market that we are undervalued. I know they have been stepping their PR exercise up, but also to do more to raise the company's profile in the market, sooner. Frankly, perhaps they also should have taken Doc's calls (he says they weren't). I'm sure you can cogently refute all of these points Tony, but at the end of the day if a SP remains perpetually undervalued then management have to take some responsibility for this, even if their good work also undoubtedly played, along with commodity prices, a v big role in creating the value which is not evident in the share price now. But you're right in that they have done a good job on many levels, which I guess is just adding to my frustration that this is not being borne out in the SP.

I'm in the same position - way overinvested already. Really staggered that I am almost back at break even point, I actually can barely believe it. No wonder Doc sold out. I feel like the BOD are not sufficiently incentivised by SP v. other targets like BOPD.

* it’s not that they’re not good questions

A lot of the articles are about Ingenuity though, which is well and truly valued at zero at these prices I would suggest. It’s not that they’re good questions, it’s just that at 175p odd the answer to all of them is already assumed to be in the negative basically. So it should be just upside really were the market functioning more logically here.

Nice find Tony. Very comforting. COP finally finishes today!

I wonder if they are facing a dilemma timing wise with respect to how much capital / debt to allocate to the expanded Canadian drilling campaign - if they have to go serenity alone then they will presumably that will curtail or change Canadian drilling plans (maybe increasing the necessity for a farm-in partner there?). So until they make or are forced by their potential Serenity farm-in counterpart(ies) to make this decision must be hard to cement Canadian capex plans.

I'm at almost 1.3m now and those words apply equally to me! The good thing is, I don't think that the current SP attributes much if any value to Serenity at all, so what would otherwise be a possible downside risk is really only upside at this stage. I think we are in a perfect position as a smallish producer with bigger fish increasingly being cajoled into exiting O&G, a lack of investment but O&G well and truly still needed for a few years yet. A great place to be.
Separate question - are there loans going for North Sea O&G drilling anymore? Seems like banks coming under (and at COP quickly bowing to) extreme pressure to not fund any new drilling?

Presumably they need Softbank's ok to do this (officially delay the spin offs). The existing option might make this difficult though. They might be renegotiating it now who knows.

They will have further annihilated the value of their remaining stake. It’s such a strange move. Really worrying

Does he provide any actual commentary in his blog or is it just a regurgitation of the RNSs?