Member Info for CLSKBull

For info:

https://assets.website-files.com/6192808c25837d3716982433/647f70fc29fa46c51dda19af_2023%20AGM%20Circular%20(Final).pdf

He's also saying 20,000 for NASDAQ if that's more your thing.

It's definitely a house of cards and I see hard times coming.

In the UK each month that goes by more people fall out of cheap fixed rate mortgages into ~3x the interest they were paying. This is on top of everything seeming to be 50% more expensive than it was pre-covid. Renters are in a worse position again and landlords want out.

Not sure if this is true but:

"BREAKING: Blackrock ordered SEC to approve #Bitcoin Spot ETF urgently.

Normally an ETF approval can take up to 240 days, with this urgency behind it I expect it to take less than a month."

https://twitter.com/misterrcrypto/status/1670344479277023233

At the moment I think I'm watching Dave Hunter's forecast playing out - but still a bit early to tell. AI may be the narrative of the rally - but I think Bitcoin will join in the fun - especially if the ETF gets approved. He forecasts S&P 500 to run to 6000 in a parabolic rally - I'm using this as my key indicator on when to sell.

The second part of Dave Hunter's forecast is a global bust - which is easier to see coming than the bull run. As you rightly point out the interest rates are high and ultimately this makes life difficult for consumers and businesses. Signs seem to be everywhere of trouble coming.

In my opinion this all happens before the halving and before year end really.

I'm not that close to ms, so didn't realise they had masses of debt - good to know.

What are your thoughts on s&p 500? To me it seems to be edging is way towards 4600 and then into bull market territory.

HC, yes it acts as a turbo boost in that situation, but as it stands now their hodl seems to be over valued vs current bitcoin price. Whereas micro strategy somehow doesn't get the same love.

But ultimately good for other miners as it sets a mark to compare against and when BTC starts properly moving there'll be some higher % moves to try and catch with other miners.

I think we see it a little differently HC. I don't see mara and riot expanding under their own steam any year soon and will be propped up by the market and require further funding to survive the next bear.

The miner which ultimately becomes supreme will be able to flourish in a bear market and kill off competitors during that time.

Mara's 23eh miners are worth less than 500mil. Their hodl another 350 or so. They have 650mil of debt or something but market cap is 1.5 bil. They have improved their mining performance now though.

Riot is likely to be outmined by clsk this month and ongoing after that. They have data centres and a good PPA though - but seem to be going through some sort of turmoil.

The next generation of bitmain (or other) miners will likely improve efficiency again and existing miners will be at a disadvantage when this happens as they'll have a large investment in older stock that they paid over the odds for.

I see this industry as very much open to new players.

The halving is a big deal but ultimately fee rewards will likely increase to make up the difference as satoshi intended. We saw it recently with memecoins, but I think additional layer twos will come along and help here.

BlackRock the biggest asset manager in the world wants in. Interesting times.

That all said I still want to get out in the next bull.

Existing miners have set the bar pretty low so plenty of scope for newcomers just now. Cleanspark still seems the best to me.

Riot should be amazing with their low price PPA but they seem to have made a mess of things somehow. Maybe they'll right themselves soon.

Hut buying their way out of the hole they made for themselves.

I'll need to revisit the others and see where they all are. Will watch that video HC.

If you look at the quarterly statements there's generally a load of bloat that the right new entrant could come and crush.

Bonuses - all of them are at it.

Interest Payments - Varying degrees.

Wages - Varying degrees.

Cost of production - electricity etc is always high.

Depreciation - machines bought at ATH have massive depreciation.

Ways to win:

Find cheap/stranded electricity.

Run your outfit with less bloat.

Buy efficient miners at a low price.

James, you're right, it's not a winner takes all market.

The bigger players have an advantage with scale and access to funds - but if they make dumb decisions and are wasteful (evidence suggests they generally do both of these), then a smaller player can do well in these conditions. Argo ruined their big chance and it's a long road back.

I don't know much about this new player, but I'm glad the sec stepped in to some degree. A lot of the alt coins were so one-sided to insiders and exchanges that it was pretty much theft and bad for BTC.

This new exchange makes no sense though, a ton of dodgy stuff going on there before it has even opened.

Hopefully we have bottomed now. S&p has been marching forward.

Https://www.bitmain.com/hosting

Interesting.....

Yes the raised target HC. Wiped out the good news.

BTC dropping seems to be more binance related though.

I really hate the fed.

Yes I think Binance is ruining things at the moment.

Thanks stnz, looks like the vote is late July so hopefully doesn't impact price today.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1507605/000149315223021104/formpre14a.htm

Cme predicting a pause today:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Thanks Mooh - you're right it states in the prospectus:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841675/000110465921138567/a21-30707_13fwp.htm

Guess we'll find out what their plans are soon when they issue the questions for the AGM.

404x you would get my vote for CEO.

Yes CFO tentatively looks a solid hire. Although Alex didn't exactly set the bar high!

The galaxy loan may have repayment conditions so it might be that they have to tackle it first.

With the bonds perhaps they can come to some agreement with the bond holders to convert to shares. However as you say with it trading at $6 there's such a big opportunity to settle this debt cheaply.

USD 37,824,000 implies 1,512,960 units. At $6 a pop they could settle this debt for 9,077,760. As it stands, this debt would cost USD $827,400 in interest payments quarterly. Trying to buy it all at market would push the price up of course but the theory is a good one.

Would certainly make sense to close down Labs as it has failed to perform, which suggests they're not particularly cut out for it. Saving in headcount here would be welcome news to the bottom line.

Would you take "Restructuring Costs" to mean a payout to PW/Alex?